Nevada’s First District race: A study in contrasts

Thursday, Nov. 3, 2011 | 4:37 p.m.

One of the obvious differences between state Sen. Ruben Kihuen and ex-Rep. Dina Titus is that he says he respects Titus, but you can tell he really doesn’t while Titus, as usual, doesn’t even try to hide her disdain.

In dueling news conferences today, the pair of Democrats running for Rep. Shelley Berkley’s seat she is vacating to run for the Senate made it clear this is going to be perhaps the ugliest congressional primary in Las Vegas since Jim Bilbray barely beat Helen Foley in 1986 (when Harry Reid vacated the First District to run for the Senate).

I’ll have more in my column in the Sun on Friday on their news conferences, but it is clear Titus has little regard for Kihuen, just as it is apparent Kihuen can’t believe she would dare run in a district with a sizable Latino population.

The Hispanic numbers in the district are debatable. Titus was asked about running in the so-called HISPANIC DISTRICT because it has an estimated 43 percent Latino population. Titus quickly said the voting population was about half that – something Kihuen would jump all over after I Tweeted it – and say it is closer to 30 percent, which independent analysis appears to confirm. (Tough to know for sure because of surnames and hyphenates, but those with databases I trust say it could be as high as 35 percent before any voter registration drives.)

There’s no question that the Democratic powers that be have come to believe Kihuen is someone who could help drive the Hispanic vote in November, so they have tried to persuade Titus to run against Rep. Joe Heck, which she has vowed not to do after losing by fewer than 2,000 votes. (Let’s not forget that during the Legislature, when the Democrats dreamed of getting maps through, it was assumed Titus would get one district, state Senate Majority leader Steven Horsford would get the other safe one and Speaker John Oceguera would take on Heck. Then, stuff happened…)

They still have time, but assuming the Titus resettlement plan fails (I think it will but I don’t underestimate the persuasive powers of Harry Reid and, perhaps, The White House), here are some dynamics to watch:

----Titus was running again from the day she lost last year and Kihuen long ago bought a domain site that indicated he was going to seek a congressional seat someday. They are both ambitious and opportunistic, about the only traits they share. News flash.

----Titus is as tough and indomitable as they come, although she can be her own worst enemy (no, not just her voice). She is conversant on the issues and is a good debater. Kihuen was a legislative cipher but can deflect and talks a good game. He has a certain charisma and will start with a solid Latino base in a core urban district. Titus deftly parried questions at her event while Kihuen first said he disagrees with issues Titus voted on in Congress, then couldn’t name one and emphasized she should have co-sponsored the DREAM Act.

----It will be interesting to watch the money. Titus has a 2-to-1 edge right now, but will Harry Reid & Co. tell donors to lay off Titus? She still has a core of donors and women’s groups will help her.

----This race will divide labor. Imagine the plight of the Culinary, which essentially created Kihuen, then was furious with him when he went with Hillary Clinton instead of Barack Obama (the Culinary endorsee) in 2008. I bet the state’s most potent union stays out – but it has a huge Hispanic membership….

----It also will be interesting to see early polling. Titus should have higher name ID, so if she doesn’t have a lead, that could be ominous.

----The presidential campaign has to reach out to and register Latinos – Obama won Hispanics by 70-20 here in ’08 – so that has to help Kihuen, assuming he can consolidate that base. As one insider put it, “Dina will have to find a way to reach out to Hispanic voters at the same time she tries to consolidate the white vote - which will be a delicate balance. And in the process, she may actually be outflanked on her left after casting moderate votes and going center on her positions - which could be an issue for her in the primary."

My initial take: This race essentially is a toss-up, with an ever-so-slight edge to Kihuen.