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Thursday, Feb. 24, 2011 | 4:32 p.m.
I’ve already told you about the lawsuit filed to coincide with the release of Nevada’s census numbers today – you can see the data yourself at 2010.census.gov/2010census/data.
Some of the numbers to remember are these:
----Clark County now is up to 72.3 percent of the state’s population while the rurals are down to 12.1 percent. No one ever thinks of it but Nevada (87.9 percent) is an amazingly urban state. What does that mean politically? The South should rule (but that’s always true) and if the Democrats turn out their voters in the urban areas, they will always do well in statewide races, unless a candidate has too many flaws.
----If the Legislature doesn’t expand, Clark gets one more Senate seat (enjoy it while you can, Greg Brower) and two Assembly seats from the rurals (Eureka! It’s about time.)
UPDATE: Some of the expert number-crunchers with the Legislative Counsel Bureau have corrected me, saying one of those seats is technically only partly Clark. The info, courtesy of the inestimable LCB boss Lorne Malkiewich:
Last decade....we had 68.85 percent of the population in Clark County, which (multiplied by 42) statistically generates 28.917 seats – almost exactly 29, and that’s how many we created. The Senate was tougher, with that same percentage generating 14.4585 seats. That became 14 seats (thanks, Bill – just rounding down because it was less than half a seat). The new number, 72.25 percent, generates 30.345 Assembly seats – one additional one, and a third of another or so. If you want to call that third of a seat another Clark seat you can say they pick up two, but I think it is more accurate to say the Assembly will go from 29 to 30 seats in Clark County and Clark County will have part of another seat. If you want to talk about the increase in the ideal number, going from 28.917 to 30.345 is an increase of 1.428 – about 1 1/2 seats. With the Senate going to an ideal of 15.1725 seats in Clark County the county will clearly pick up one seat, and a small portion of another one – the increase in the ideal being .714, or about 3/4 of a seat. Due to the “rounding down” last time, that 3/4 takes you easily up a seat.
----Rep. Joe Heck has more than a million constituents. He has to lose more than a third of them, and that will determine a lot of dynamics. Think about his situation: he barely won in an off year in a relatively close district and now he will be up in a presidential year. Now you see what’s at stake as his district is redrawn – hard to see how he could be helped, unless the Republicans solidify him and give away CD4, and even that might be impossible to do based on the numbers. At the very least, it looks like three Clark County-dominant districts.
----As Hispanics go, so goes 2012 in Nevada. The Hispanic share of the state’s population increased nearly to 26.5 percent up from 19.7 percent in 2000. Overall, Hispanic population increased by 82 percent. Hispanics were critical in 2008 (Barack Obama) and 2010 (Harry Reid). The crux of the GOP problem right here in Nevada.
----Which is the minority party? Here’s how one insider put it: “Look at it in the context of a Republican party that is being driven far right by the tea party activists, the Republicans are likely to have trouble in Nevada -- the math becomes increasingly difficult -- particularly in a presidential year when the turnout disparity is less. Overall, 46 percent of Nevadans are from minority groups. 52 percent of Clark is minority. Washoe is 34 percent minority.”
Hello, GOP, are you listening?
So you are claiming that clark county is 25% criminal invader? They are not counted as Americans it appears.
Hey Clyde: Why don't we arrest 100% of those criminal invaders? Who cares if it breaks the bank.
Not a problem, not a bad idea, if you could get the federal government to do their job
Wow. Just wow. So now all Latinos are "invaders"? (Including the 95+% who are US citizens?) And are the fine teabaggers now "crusaders"? Why don't the teabaggers just go back to The Middle Ages already and leave it to sane people to govern in the 21st century?
And btw, can't NV-03 just be expanded into some of the rurals to make it safer for Heck? NV-04 will already have to be at least a Dem leaning seat.
Well they are not identified as Americans!
Their genetic origin is Hispanic even though they are AMERICAN CITIZENS. You're going to want to learn this because they are going to be deciding who represents you, whether you like it or not, and making them hate you is probably not in your best interest.
Last I checked Mexico was in North America .Therefore they are all American..
wedo I try to use the term United States citizen.
atdleft Nobody even mentioned latinos. You are the first one to bring it up. A latino is an american who has hispanic ancestry. So how could they be invaders? Why just blame the teabaggers when the Repubs and the Dems are doing quite a job themselves.
Jon,
Thank you, for the overview of the 2010 census data. However, I must have missed your report about the lawsuit filed to coincide with the release of the Nevada's cencus number...I will archive it to bring myself up to date.
Based upon the statistical significance of the infromation you have provided it is going to make for a very interesting political cycle in 2012.
The Republican Party, not having this infromation after the 2010 election and walking away with the misguided belief that they were given a mandate, are creating a very slippery slope for themselves to climb in 2012 'Id Est' Wisconsin.
This is when the mantra, "taking back our country" will take on a whole new meaning, as we view our freedom through the lens of the "MIDDLE EAST".
'MADE IN AMERICA'
DUBLIN -- Ireland's ruling Fianna Fail party faced its worst defeat in nearly 80 years, an exit poll predicted Saturday, as a tidal wave of voter anger swept the Fine Gael opposition into power and crushed the party that dragged Ireland to the edge of bankruptcy.
Only in America, we would do what most sane people would not do...we voted back into power the Republican Party that dragged America to the edge of bankruptcy.
Let us pray we can survive until 2012.
We'll survive until the next time unchecked greed trashes our financial system -- again.
Can illegals vote now????
No, Jon, I doubt that the Republicant/Teabaggers are listening. The Republicant Party folded the "Big Tent" long ago. Say what you will about W, but he was not a hateful man. The Republicants of 2011 are hateful Cheneyites. Anyone with an ounce of compassion will vote Democrat in 2012.
Good riddance Republicant/Teabaggers!