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October 21, 2014

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Poll: Tarkanian looks strong in congressional race, Gingrich up in presidential contest

Danny Tarkanian starts out with a crushing lead over state Sen. Barbara Cegavske in a primary for the state's new congressional district and defeats state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford in a matchup measured by national expert Glen Bolger.

The survey also found Newt Gingrich slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the district among likely GOP voters -- perhaps a slightly different universe than Republican caucusgoers on Feb. 4 -- by 39 percent to 34 percent. No one else was in single digits.

I have posted a plethora of information about the survey of the entire district and the primary oversample, conducted last week, at right. The primary numbers are from a 328-voter oversample, which has almost a 5.5 percent margin of error. The full CD4 poll was of 400 likley voters and has a MOE of just under 5 percent. (Oversight: I neglected to say Tarkanian paid for the poll.)

Some highlights:

----Tarkanian's lead over Cegavske is 73 percent to 9 percent, similar to Dina Titus' 66-percentage-point edge over Ruben Kihuen in CD1. As with Titus, it's a name ID lead, but it's significant, especially because Kihuen will raise a fortune while Cegavske may have more trouble in a district the national GOP may not be salivating over.

----Tarkanian defeats Horsford, 47-36, in the ballot test, while Cegavske loses to her colleague, 43-32. Neither state senators, like most state legislators, are well known. Horsford will buy his, though, so that number may be illusory in this Democratic district.

----Behind Gingrich and Romney, every other GOP contender loses to undecided, which is at 7 percent. Herman Cain and Ron Paul are at 6 percent, Rick Perry is at 3 percent (who was your SECOND choice, Gov. Sandoval?), Michele Bachmann is at 2 percent and Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum are at 1 percent. Yes, likely GOP primary voters are a larger universe than probable caucusgoers, but all the indicators are that this is a two-man race. One other caveat: This is just one of four congressional districts and does not include most of the rurals or Washoe County.

It's almost impossible to imagine these results won't induce Tarkanian into the race. How does he pass it up?

There is a lot more in the survey, including some message-testing against Horsford that will make Tarkanian happy (although the PokerStars hit isn't quite accurate) and some message-testing against him and Cegavske that seems rather tepid. The survey also indicates just how unpopular the president is, even in this heavily Democratic district, with independents and "soft Democrats" being the key.

Click at right to take a look.

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