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Published Saturday, Oct. 30, 2010 | 8:28 a.m.
Updated Friday, Nov. 5, 2010 | 11:28 a.m.
Republicans lost ground to the Democrats in the urban counties on the largest and last day of early voting Friday, surely giving Democrats hope that a surge to blunt the GOP momentum could carry over into Election Day.
The GOP still maintained a lead relative to registration in urban Nevada, but Democrats kept it to under 4 percent. When the rural data is in, as well as Washoe absentees, the statewide turnout advantage for the GOP is expected to be closer to 3 percent. In 2006, after Election Day, the GOP had a 6 percent turnout advantage, but the Democrats did not have a 5 percent edge in statewide registration, as they do now. And upwards of 65 percent of the overall turnout already has occurred.
The Democrats have nearly a 9 percentage point edge in Clark County (25,000 votes) – that’s almost 4 percentage points under their registration edge. To put this in perspective, in the last competitive race Sen. Harry Reid had -- against John Ensign in 1998 (he won by 400 votes) -- Reid won Clark County by less than 7 percentage points. And Reid lost Washoe County 12 years ago – although by a small margin – and that northern, urban county could be key: Is Sharron Angle holding her home base or is she hemorrhaging Republicans, as some polls have shown? If Reid wins Washoe County, he could blunt large losses in rural Nevada, which will make up 15 to 20 percent of the overall tally. Election Day will be pivotal in Washoe, which usually turns out greater than Clark – the northerners lag behind in early voting but turn out in greater percentage numbers on Election Day. It’s harder to tell this year because the early voting totals are so high, but Washoe turnout Tuesday is going to be pivotal.
The total turnout in the last two midterms was about 59 percent, so the rural counties will bring it up by having turnout percentages that generally are over 60 percent and some over 70 percent. How large a percentage the rurals are of the overall turnout also will be key.
If you look at the blizzard of numbers below, what stands out is that the Republicans are up over 40 percent already in urban Nevada and their advantage gradually diminished as early voting ended. Is it reasonable to assume that the enthusiasm in the GOP started early and is now tapped out? Or will they still come out in force on Tuesday? The GOP usually wins Election Day, but it now appears as if as much as two-thirds of the turnout already has occurred, so it will only have a marginal impact.
Here are some numbers, to put this all in perspective:
Makeup of the early voting electorate:
D: 46.3 percent (actual registration is just under that)
R: 37.6 percent (actual registration is 33 percent)
Rest: 16.1 percent (actual registration is about 20 percent)
Past midterms and overall turnout:
Clark:
2006: 56 percent
2002: 57 percent
Washoe turnout:
2006: 63 percent
2002: 58 percent
Total Clark early voting percentages relative to registration:
Democrats: 35.6 percent
Republicans: 39.6 percent
Total Clark with mail ballots added (Democrats now have a 2,300-ballot lead):
Democrats: 39.9 percent
Republicans: 44.6 percent
Independents/others: 29.5 percent
Total urban early vote:
Democrats: 147,286 (34.9 percent)
Republicans: 127,487 (38.5 percent)
Total urban early vote (including absentees in Clark):
Democrats: 161,881 (38.4 percent)
Republicans: 139,717 (42.2 percent)
For numbers geeks:
CLARK:
Friday: Dems, 16,315 Rs, 11,733 rest, 6,102
Early: Dems, 119,372; Rs, 96,541 rest, 42,415
Mail: Dems, 14,595; Rs, 12,230 rest, 3,914
Combined: Dems, 133,967 Rs, 108,771 rest, 46,329
WASHOE:
Ds: 27,914 (32.4 percent)
Rs: 30,946 (35.6 percent)
Chunky says:
It would really help if the Republicans could vet a candidate to get excited about! Are there no Republicans with charisma, charm, intelligence, innovative solutions and leadership qualities out there? It's like they're all 70 years old and still using manual typewriters... god forbid an iPhone or Blackberry!
Inspire the Chunkmeister, show him you're relevant to today's world and he'll vote for you!
That's what Chunky thinks!
My Picks
Reid by 2 % called at 11 PM
Titus by a hair called later
and my October surprise due to Dem turnout and Latino voter surge is Rory Reid called at midnight by 1%
We got money on this Jon? Lunch? :-)
as an aside, I've enjoy Chunky's comments and look forward to his comments in the 2012 election
When all of US go out and vote, you are hiring a person to work for you. Would you hire a person that makes statements during the interview "That is not my job" as Angle has stated many times (just for starters...). Ms Angle would never make it past the interview for most employers. Angle avoids and "bans" the press. What does she have to hide? Our political leaders need to be leaders and open to the public at all times, NOT COWARDS!
WE as a country elected the democrats to restore this country financially .So far I can see absolutely nothing other then that they are doing a good job. Especially as the other NO party from day one has not helped nor put their shoulder to the wheel.
Do you reward negativity?
Anyone who is looking for a quick fix is absolutely and totally delusional.
We are making slow progress and yes more medicine is needed to accomplish this task but not to make a change and go in another direction. That will only add more turmoil and hinder any chance to resolve this situation in an acceptable length of time. If the country makes this change and it also doesnt work, Then what make another change?
Any solid businessman will tell you once you institute a plan you absolutely owe it to yourself to continue and make refinements . Any complete change ultimately leads to disaster especially if the plan is working although it is going to take a long time. Give some thought as to how many businesses made change after change and what happened most of them did not survive
Its really easy to get into trouble and very difficult to get out of it. HOW many times have you heard that expression and more important do you believe it
Libslapper...It an attitude like yours that will cause the defeat of the Tea Partiers this election!
Marvin,
Very, very well stated, sir.
The words: "Sharron Angle, US Senator" should scare the crap out of anyone with even an ounce of common sense.
I know Harry Reid isn't very popular here in Nevada but sheesh, are we really foolish enough to elect a half baked sociopath like Angle to represent us in congress the next six years?
DEMS - GOTV FOR HARRY REID!
.
Thank you Jon, good job.
HARRY IS ON HIS WAY TO A SOLID WIN.
Don't forget that us Independents will give the win to Sharron Angle...
Moderate republicans, moderate independents and
Hispanics will give the win to HARRY.
I've crossed party lines and voted for Harry in the last several elections, and even though I think Sharron Angle may be crazy, I just couldn't vote for Harry again. His insistence on giving this country to ILLEGAL immigrants is something I just can't stomach. This one issue is what cost him my vote. Everything else is just garbage, they all screw us one way or another.
Angle may be crazy or stupid, but at least she won't give our country away. She will be a junior Senator from a small state and won't be capable of any real harm. And in six years we can toss her out like yesterday's paper and hopefully then have a real choice we can be proud of.
Teamster:
I am a moderate Republican, and even a Union member! I've voted for Harry in the past, but his babying ILLEGAL immigrants has forced me to vote for crazy instead. Crazy I can deal with, flushing my tax dollars down the drain on anchor babies I can't.
The Big Money behind Angle doesn't hate illegals, they're just scapegoatin' 'em to get the racist vote! Hell, as soon as the election's over, they'll go back to hirin' 'em to washin' dishes in the back!
It doesn't matter. Reid lost the independent vote and thus will lose. Reids only hope is the Hispanic vote.
lv2gen......
Greedy republicans hired all of the illegals.
Start thinking, man.
NEVER TRUST A CRAZY REPUBLICAN.
teamster:
Yeah the greedy repubs did hire them all, instead of Union labor. But we can thank the Dems for catering to them so they can get eventually their votes--hence the push for "Comprehensive" immigration reform, aka let them all in. Either way they keep coming and legal workers lose out.
This won't be settled here, just a lot of back and forth. Just wanted to let you know that some level headed people are so tired of Harry that we'll even take crazy instead. Adios.
The teamster states: "NEVER TRUST A CRAZY REPUBLICAN."
So teamster, do we trust those CRAZY DEMOCRATS?
LV2Gem - your reasoning is SCARY!
@ LV2Gem - where were you when your republican President Ronald Regan LEGALIZED almost 3 million ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS in 1986?? Ya, thought so.....
Marvin,
Saying 'No' isn't sinful, or bad politics when you don't agree with the direction that other party wants to go.
The funny part of your statement is that you (or any other democrat) won't say it was your own party who was saying 'No' to some of Obama's policies....
The democrats didn't need the republicans to say 'Yes' because you had the majority.... So please tell me why your own party members wouldn't put their shoulders to the wheel.
I hope all proud and loyal democrats will stand up and take the blame for your own failure to pass legislation rather than blaming a party who didn't believe in your programs to begin with...
Chunky says:
"Rubio? Who's that?" "O'Donnell? Who's that?" "Miller? Who's that?" "Reid? Oh, he's only 49 years old, I'm pretty sure"
That's what Chunky thinks.
Angle is a breath of fresh air in the polluted atmosphere of liberal socialism. And, she is correct in saying it's not the job of a U.S. Senator to create jobs. She accurately states that a Senator's job is to create an ENVIRONMENT in which free enterprise and the private business sector can flourish, since it's small businesses which create the bulk of jobs.
rslc_john: Just as we predicted, the libs are running from their records and votes like rats running away from a burning barn. They think the people are too stupid to see their hypocrisy. And, you are right---they have had control of Congress for nearly 4 years and also the White House for nearly 2 years. So, how can they blame anything on the GOP? THANK GOD THE REPUBS ARE THE PARTY OF NO! It gives us a clear choice to stop the destruction in this election season. They beg for "more time". We say, "you criminals ought to be DOING time!"
Sure, Sagehopper, and the fresh air she is supposed to represent to you Republican Tea Partiers comes from the early ninteen hundreds, which is where her philosophical agenda comes from. "Back to the Future" has nothing on that radical throwback to 1910. I suspect you would not like to live in the world Angle envisions, but then, from most of your statements,I guess you would.
Sagehopper, you are not serious right? Crazy Sharron isn't talking about small business, she talking about crotch & crotch, whose billions are trying to buy this idiot the election, which they have been doing all over the country. If you like facism, that is exactly what you get! Please, you can't be that stupid to not see this happening! Or many too young to understand history.
Dems and Independent must show up in force on tuesday to send a message to the Tea Party that their party is over. check this out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4leO4b1xg...
Come Wednesday morning, you will not be able to find a Harry Reid supporter anywhere...
wow, I think the Republicans are chunky like chunky peanut butter with too many nuts.
When the greedy republicans were in power, they
destroyed our entire economy.
They sent all of our jobs to COMMUNIST CHINA.
Now these same greedy fools want their power
back?
NO WAY.
SLAM THE DOOR IN THE FACE OF THESE GREEDY,
CRAZY REPUBLICANS.
GIVE THESE FOOLS HELL, HARRY.
What will happen in Nevada on Wednesday...
It is the hopes of our coalition (Raising the Standard of Living) that the name calling, the partisan squabbling will stop and we will work hard to get people back to work.
Unemployment pays no respect to the Republican, the Democrat or the Independent, thus it is, our collective enemy, and defeating it will take all of us working together.
The unions have what they call a 'travel card' for those that come to Nevada during good times to work even if they don't call Nevada home. The idea that when work is plentiful and the need of more workers exist then others from outside the state can come here and share in the work under their 'travel card.' When work is minimal only local workers get to have the jobs. This program supports the financial idea that Nevada will always have a trained and qualified workforce that will always be ready and willing to work here and support the local economy.
We need the same type of program here with regards to those that come here without calling Nevada their home. Even the Latino community that is already here realizes that those who are still coming are putting at risk those that are already here.
It is our hope that we will all work from the heart, and believe in each other and work to help those in need, regardless of being an Independent, a Republican or a Democrat...
That's the thing that I love about computers. You can copy everything quickly and put it neatly into a file.
In the old days, I would have had to write all of these really important figures and datum by hand and then make a file.
Piles of statistics on incompetents (did I spell incumbents, right?) are going to be very helpful, when I have to calculate what incompetent to vote for...in the next election.
Yes. All of those listed stats are VERY IMPORTANT.
Gotta go push Ctrl + A and then, Ctrl + C and then...
Less we Forget Who Got Us Here:
Excerpt from PlanetWaves.Net
(Conservative public officials spend) "$1 million a year per soldier in (Iraq and now) Afghanistan makes the bonuses of Wall Street execs look like a bargain. And we're doing what? Intervening in the affairs of a foreign country? "
(The GOP Party want to privatize or reuduce) "Social Security benefits in half -- as if they're not low enough already. People went on and on about entitlements, without noting that companies such as Bank of America and General Electric pay zero corporate taxes and get plenty in corporate welfare.
Candidates pandering to this constituency are promising to eliminate the minimum wage, take away health care, give the Social Security fund to Wall Street. Women voters are leaning Republican this year. They are being manipulated by hundreds of millions of dollars worth of anonymous attack advertising, allowed by a new Supreme Court decision called Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission. I don't understand this. Lots of conservatives are Christians, and Jesus said we should take care of the poor. And as for those ads, why would you conceal your identity unless you have something to hide?
On a radio show, Sal Russo, the 'chief strategist' of the Tea Party Express, a political action committee that funnels money into the campaigns of Tea Party candidates. Mr. Russo got his start shining the shoes of Ronald Reagan, who looks like a bleeding heart liberal these days -- he raised taxes dozens of times, granted amnesty to illegal immigrants and did quite a bit of deficit spending. Russo rambled on for an hour about how the (Democrat-controlled) government is over-regulating business and therefore creating the recession. All we need to do is get rid of these pesky regulations and the recession will disappear, he said (about 14 times). There used to be an expression for this -- putting the fox in charge of the chicken coop.
Speaking of education, it's money well spent. We need to invest in the future, and an effective, economical way to do that is to support education. Parents should have a diversity of options for educational philosophies available: different kinds of schools to suit different values and ideas about life. Public higher education needs to go back to majority funding by the state, remembering its primary mission, which is access to all citizens; this in turn will create a prosperous, functioning economy. We have to stop this whole business of student loans and go back to grants.
Help for those in need. The purpose of a society is to take care of all its members. Why bother otherwise? We are a nation based on abundance, and there is plenty to go around, especially if we're talking about food, shelter, clothing and health care. Many of my fellow conservatives these days say they read the Bible. Remember this part? "Amen I say to you, as long as you did it to one of these my least brethren, you did it to me."
The wise teamster states:
"When the greedy republicans were in power, they
destroyed our entire economy. They sent all of our jobs to COMMUNIST CHINA."
Pardon me comrade teamster, are you posting from Guangdong, China???
This election is about deciding whether or not to endorse the continuation of the Republicans' war in Iraq for greed, for the profit of oil companies, Halliburton and other war profiteers. Your vote for Angle condemns American soldiers to death. Muslims didn't consider America an enemy until the US started exploiting their countries. We attacked Iraq without justification and hundreds of thousands of innocent citizens of those countries have been killed. Why do you think they hate us??? Massive war over oil was predicted long before there was any threat from Muslims, when we were selling arms to Sadaam. And if you studied what the Muslim religion is truly about, it's not about killing Americans on our side of the world. That's all fear tactics to get you to vote for Republicans.
"The republicans drove the car into the ditch and the Democrats pulled it out!"
I love that story!
"Now the republicans want the keys back. They can't have them back because they can't drive!"
Save Nevada. Vote for Harry Reid!
Wow! You Democrats are really delusional aren't you? Excuse me, but what exactly caused the whole financial crisis in this country? Anyone? Anyone at all? The housing market crashed. Any guess who and what pushed that gem of a deal through? The DEMOCRATS!!!! Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are entities that are government owned and Democrats controlled. ACORN, (Obama's previous employer and Democrat favored entity) forced Congress to allow Fannie and Freddie to make loans available (to people who under normal circumstances would not qualify for a loan), to the "disadvantaged". Now that they all defaulted and we are paying the bill, you are crying that the Republicans had something to do with it? Seriously? Bush told Congress NO, twice, (look it up under C-Span and watch the video) but the majority being Democrats pushed it through anyway.... so here we are people. Thank you Democrats!
Also, the ignorant comment about jobs being sent to China. Guess who did that? Clinton! It's called NAFTA you fool!!!!! That wasn't a Republican decision either, it was once again, a Democrat pushed, support and passed agenda!
The housing bubble was ALL GEORGE BUSH.
It was his idea for the NO DOWN LOAN.
Crazy republicans can't stop lying.
You fools are NOT GETTING THE KEYS BACK.
Teamster: keep lying to yourself and life inside your bubble will be just fine. The housing bust was not owned by Bush. Your stupid remark only goes to show just how gullible and uneducated your party is. The gas crisis has been blamed on Bush, the housing crash and our poor economy. How do you explain the fact that fuel continues to rise and under the watch of the great Obama (we are now paying well over $3.60 per gallon)?
I am so tired of the bashing, wherein everything is blamed on the past. Bush may not have been the greatest President we ever had, but I sure as hell felt safe at night with him at the helm. I do not however, feel safe with the spineless, inexperienced clown we have now.
@ Renee
"whatever" (that's what I call him) does not like anyone posting anything that "whatever" does not want to hear.
I don't remember who died and made "whatever" the King of the Mole Hill...
Angle was nominated to lose or isn't that obvious?
And look at the support. Look at the ads on this page...both sides and top...this woman isn't good looking and what a great hairstyle! rats-nest brown?
And have you noticed what color, the handlers have her constantly wearing?...red.
Ask any marketing expert what red means?
Don't know what she got paid to run in this farce of an election, but crazies don't always come cheap!
So if she accidentally wins & gets elected, she could get, uh...fired for not doing her job? Huh?
Politicians just drive me right out of my tree!