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StumblePublished Friday, Jan. 11, 2008 | 9:53 a.m.
Updated Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2008 | 10:15 a.m.
Four days after New York Senator Hillary Clinton’s performance in the Democratic half of the New Hampshire primary shocked the media world, pollsters still are trying to explain how they got it so wrong.
Most pollsters blame a New Hampshire campaign condensed from two weeks in past election cycles to just five days this year – and little ideological separation between the Democratic party’s two leading candidates.
“This is a fight between two exceptionally skilled politicians,” said Peter Hart, a Washington, DC pollster for NBC and the Wall Street Journal. “There is not a rigid ideology that draws boundaries for the voters.
“It’s easy to skate from one candidate to another.”
The prevailing belief is two events halted Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s momentum after his decisive victory in the Iowa caucus: Clinton’s addressing how many view Obama as more likable than her during Saturday’s debate followed by her tears before a roundtable of likely female voters Monday.
Because the events happened within 60 hours of the primary, the impact of the events may not have been represented in the polls, some pollsters suspect.
“All the momentum (had been) with the cool, hot young African-American candidate – the wave candidate,” said Glen Bolger, a leading Republican pollster.
That was, until Clinton made a final push – connecting with some voters, maybe those who had been undecided, “on a gut level,” Bolger said.
Several pollsters and pundits contend they didn’t get it terribly wrong: they note they weren’t too off on Obama’s final vote percentage. It appears, they say, those who were undecided in the days leading to the primary swung to Clinton.
“Obama basically got what he was polling,” Bolger said. “Clearly, there was a shift (among undecideds) at the end.”
There’s another theory: the media’s emphatic prediction of an overwhelming Obama victory may have prompted some Independent supporters of his to instead choose among Republican candidates.
As pollsters are scratching their heads and media apologizes, others wonder why the great discrepancies in paper ballot and Hillary-heavy machine count and they question the influx of out of state voters in the New Hampshire primary. As Hillary miraculouly got 40 thousand more votes than showed in polls (including exit polls), one county failed to count even one vote for Paul (the votes were later found). I trust our state will show more oversite for a fairer result.
Have you noticed that the major media outlets aren’t covering the election? Think about it, a week ago you could not turn on the TV, or read a newspaper without reading about the election. This all lead up to the squeaker in New Hampshire where Obama lost by 5,000 votes. The Big News companies proclaimed Hilary the winner, playing up her supposed “comeback”. On Wednesday the story was: “Nothing has been decided” (that’s because they already decided Hilary to be the winner). Then Thursday, practically nothing, today the headlines are about Marion Jones, or Countrywide financial. It is like they want you to forget that the primary is happening! This is the greatest struggle for power in the world right now, and they are trying to make America forget that it is happening now.
The media can try and make people believe that the reason voters supported Hillary was because of her 'near to tears' moment, but that is not why she won. She won because the voters of N.H realized and know that Hillary is better prepared than Obama to change the course of this country. Obama knows it too, deep down inside, he knows Hillary is better. That is why he was looking so defeated in his well rehearsed speech, I think that more and more voters are realizing that Obama's emmulation of Martin Luther King is not going to cut it. Just because you can immitate a great civil rights leader doesn't mean you can run a country. I am happy that the NH voters gave Hillary the win, she desreved it. And I don't buy the idea that Hillary could have persuaded over 15 thousand voters to vote for her out of sympathy. Think about it, she was supposedly 14% behind and won by 3%, this means that 17% of voters, which equals to over 15 thousand voters, voted for her out of sympathy; Please give me a break. The meida can try hard to down play her impressive credentials, but we the voters know better and will continue to vote for her. Our country can't survive without her. Obama simply can't be trusted and is not ready to become President of the USA! Go vote for Hillary!