Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Long shots: Two teams could continue the recent trend of surprise NBA Finals participants

Golden State Warriors

Rick Bowmer / AP

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) passes the ball as Utah Jazz’s Rudy Gobert (27) and Raul Neto, right, defend in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game, Monday, Nov. 30, 2015, in Salt Lake City.

In each of the past four years, a team that was listed 40-to-1 or higher to win the title at some juncture of the offseason ended up reaching the NBA Finals.

Only one of those teams—the Toronto Raptors in 2018-2019—wound up winning the championship, but that’s beside the point. The now-annual jump of teams from the mid-tier to the top illustrates a larger trend: Parity has arrived in a league that traditionally produced less of it than any other major American professional sport.

The contenders are no longer as clear as they have been in the past. That’s something to keep in mind when dipping into betting markets for the 2022-2023 NBA season, which tipped off on October 18.

There’s no guarantee a team will join the aforementioned 2018-2019 Raptors’ team, last year’s Boston Celtics, the 2021-2022 Phoenix Suns and the 2020-2021 Miami Heat as unexpected conference champions, but it could easily happen again. Two candidates stand above the rest and offer value in futures markets—the Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans.

Here’s why both teams are worth targeting, along with two of the more established powers that could regress to enable their rise, and bets to make on all four. It used to be difficult to bet regular-season win totals after the season began, but now sports books like Caesars/William Hill and BetMGM update and repost the markets frequently early in the year.

Minnesota Timberwolves

33-to-1 to win NBA title, 20-to-1 to have most regular-season wins, 15-to-1 to win Western Conference, +150 (i.e. risking $100 to win $150) to win Northwest Division (BetMGM)

The Timberwolves fit within our established criteria because they were 60-to-1 to win the championship before striking a blockbuster trade for longtime Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert in July. The market hasn’t shifted enough to account for the arrival of “the Stifle Tower,” who has consistently rated as the most impactful defensive player in the league during the last six years. Sentiment on the 7-foot-1 France native has significantly soured after his Jazz teams annually flamed out of the playoffs to ruin dominant regular seasons. But those postseason failures likely aren’t predictive going forward, and Gobert might find himself in an even better situation in Minnesota. Fellow Minnesota big man Karl-Anthony Towns is almost as gifted on offense as Gobert is on defense, making them a more natural fit next to one another than it might first appear. The Timberwolves’ other former No. 1 overall draft pick alongside Towns, shooting guard Anthony Edwards, broke out late in his sophomore season last year and led the team with 25.2 points per game in the playoffs.

New Orleans Pelicans

55-to-1 to win NBA title, 24-to-1 to win Western Conference, +350 to win Southwest Division (Boyd Sports)

Like the Timberwolves, the Pelicans were a surprise participant in the postseason a year ago after prevailing in the NBA’s play-in tournament. New Orleans went on to put a scare into the 64-win, overall No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns, dragging their first-round series to six games. And the Pelicans did that without the player many believe to be their best. This season will see the return of 2019 No. 1 overall draft pick and former Duke superstar Zion Williamson, who missed all of last year with a foot injury. Williamson appears to be in great shape physically and mentally for the first time in his professional career. There were rumors before last season that the 22-year-old power forward wanted out of New Orleans, but that has reportedly changed given the deep roster the franchise has built around him. The Pelicans traded for star veteran shooting guard C.J. McCollum at last year’s trade deadline, developed swingman Brandon Ingram into an All-Star and found a stalwart perimeter defender in second-year player Herb Jones.

Golden State Warriors

Under 53 wins (Caesars/William Hill)

What better way to demonstrate belief that the NBA’s new chaotic nature can stick than to call for a drop-off from the defending champions? This isn’t even really calling for the now four-time champions to drop off, though. The Warriors are undoubtedly still a championship contender but staying healthy with an eye on the playoffs will be their primary focus more than battling night in and night out during the grueling 82-game regular season. Coach Steve Kerr and the Warriors learned their lesson in 2015-2016, when they set an NBA record with a 73-9 record but then didn’t top it off with a championship. They have taken it easier in the regular season ever since and should be even more aggressive about doing so this year with the aging of their original core trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. A lot went right for the Warriors to win another championship last year; in the new age of the NBA, that hasn’t been happening in back-to-back seasons.

Los Angeles Clippers

Under 52.5 wins (BetMGM)

The Clippers might be the trendiest title pick, down to the fourth choice to win the Finals at 7-to-1 behind the Celtics (5-to-1), Warriors (6-to-1) and Milwaukee Bucks (13-to-2). But that requires a big leap of faith that their superstar duo of 31-year-old Kawhi Leonard and 32-year-old Paul George will return to vintage form. It’s certainly possible, though they haven’t been on the floor together since a playoff series against the Jazz at the end of the 2020-2021 season. Leonard missed all of last season with a torn ACL, while George played in only 31 games with an elbow injury. They’re two of the most injury-prone players in the league, and like the Warriors, the Clippers will prioritize rest in the regular season in an attempt to go all out in the playoffs. The NBA landscape is much different than it was in 2019 when Leonard and George first joined forces, with a lot more teams now having a chance.

This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.