Football betting season begins in Las Vegas with handful of big games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010 | 2:05 a.m.

Exercise caution when approaching college football’s opening week of games at the betting window.

That’s the advice most top sports bettors would give this week. With the lack of statistics on teams and the high player turnover rate in college football, it tends to be harder to handicap games at the beginning of the season.

“I’ll put it this way. Even if you’re a liberal or Democrat, you want to be a conservative this weekend,” said Marc Lawrence, a professional sports handicapper. “This is the week to change parties.”

Lawrence, who publishes the weekly football betting newsletter Playbook, recommends using trends to pick winners this early in the season. For example, Lawrence would be more inclined to bet against teams with a first-year head coach in their opener.

Coaches in their debut have had a horrendous record against the spread in recent years, hovering around 40 percent. Tidbits like that should help bettors scratch out some plays on this week’s abbreviated board of games.

“This is pretty much a soft opening,” said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook. “You just have a few teams playing decent opponents. It’s like a dress rehearsal for most of the teams.”

One team that will enjoy no such luxury is UNLV. The Rebels, of course, open their season at 8 p.m. Saturday at Sam Boyd Stadium against the Wisconsin Badgers.

The Hilton lists No. 12-ranked Wisconsin as 20.5-point favorites. Kornegay said the game had seen one of the biggest line moves, as UNLV opened as only an 18.5-point underdog.

“I’m not sure if it’s a tribute to how strong Wisconsin is or if it’s the thought that UNLV will struggle,” Kornegay said. “If you look at history, UNLV has played them well. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rebels gave them a game.”

Lawrence isn’t so sure. Although he said he wouldn’t bet either side, Lawrence again pointed to the first-year coach syndrome afflicting UNLV coach Bobby Hauck.

“He was a terrific hire for that program and he will do a terrific job for this team, but first-year coaches struggle with the point spread in their first games,” Lawrence said. “You’ll never find me with a new coach in their first game at home. The numbers are overwhelmingly against them. That being said, it’s not in my makeup to lay 20 points with a team on the road in its opener.”

Lawrence does have stronger opinions on some of the weekend’s other games. Below is a betting breakdown of some of Week 1’s marquee matchups. All the numbers come from the Hilton.

No. 15 Pittsburgh at Utah (-3), Thursday at 5:30 p.m. on Versus: The 3-point line has not moved at all since it was posted last month at the Hilton. The Utes and the Panthers appear to be two of the most evenly matched teams squaring off this weekend.

“The fact that Utah is defecting from the conference, I think that hurts them in the final year. I don’t see those distractions as a good thing” Lawrence said. “This could put Pittsburgh on the map right from the beginning of the year. I like Pittsburgh’s chances in the game.”

Washington at BYU (-3), Saturday at 4 p.m. on CBS: The Cougars lost most of their offensive firepower from last year’s MAACO Bowl Las Vegas championship team. Washington returns quarterback Jake Locker, who could be the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

“Again, BYU is another defector,” Lawrence said. “I think any time you have a Pac-10 team of the Huskies' caliber taking points from a Mountain West team, you have to look at it.”

Oregon State at No. 6 TCU (-13.5), Saturday at 4:45 p.m. on ESPN: TCU is a national championship contender after losing to Boise State in last year’s Fiesta Bowl.

“TCU was red-faced embarrassed in their bowl game last year as a seven-point favorite,” Lawrence said. “Teams that do just that, what I call red-faced bowlers, open up really well the next year.”

No. 16 North Carolina vs. No. 21 LSU (-5), Saturday at 5 p.m. on ABC: The game opened as a pick’em, but moved in the Tigers favor after the NCAA began investigating a handful of Tar Heels stars relationship with an agent. North Carolina will play without at least one of those players, defensive tackle Marvin Austin, who coach Butch Davis suspended.

“North Carolina still has a lot of starters back,” Lawrence said. “I don’t think they’ll be devoid of talent. And I’m looking for reasons to go against Les Miles. If f I’m leaning either way on this game, it’s toward North Carolina.”

No. 3 Boise State (-2.5) vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech, Monday at 5 p.m. on ESPN: The game will be held at FedEx Field in Washington, D.C., considered a neutral site but 2,000 miles closer to Virginia Tech’s campus than Boise State’s. Boise State has only failed to cover the spread against a non-conference opponent once in the last two years.

“It’s hard to go against either of these teams with their returning starters, but my feeling is the pressure is more on Boise State,” Lawrence said. “They are favored, despite playing in Virginia Tech’s backyard, and everyone has Boise State in the BCS Championship Game if they can take them down.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.