NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Sweet 16

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, March 28, 2024 | 2 a.m.

An opening NCAA Tournament weekend some are describing humdrum should help amp up the volume for the regional final portion of March Madness.

This year’s Sweet 16 is packed with top-tier matchups more than any other time in recent memory, largely because of the relative lack of upsets during the first two rounds of the event. The average spread in the eight games spread over Thursday and Friday is a hushed five points, and there are several showdowns that could be considered the best of the bunch.

In last week’s preview series, I advocated No. 2 seed Tennessee vs. No. 3 seed Creighton setting up as the best potential Sweet 16 game. It’s still first rate, especially with the stylistic pairing of Tennessee’s slashing and physicality against Creighton’s shooting prowess, but it’s got company.

No. 2 seed Iowa State vs. No. 3 seed Illinois may pair the two hottest teams in the country dating back to conference tournaments. And No. 1 seed Houston’s double-overtime flirt with disaster against No. 9 seed Texas A&M makes it look highly vulnerable against surging No. 4 seed Duke.

And those are just a few options for the biggest must-watches of the next two days. The 2024 Sweet 16 should be exceptional, and cashing some tickets could make it even better.

Read below for my handicaps on every Sweet 16 contest. Games are labeled in one of three confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The record for the tournament currently stands at 30-20-2 (9-10-1 on plays, 12-3 on leans and 9-7-1 on guesses).

No. 1 seed North Carolina -4.5 vs. No. 4 seed Alabama, over/under: 173.5. Alabama’s defensive struggles are the talking point du jour and, at this point, might be a little overblown. The Crimson Tide were trending upward on that end before a rough stretch right before the tournament and coach Nate Oats is a master tactician with a lot of versatile pieces at his disposal. Given extra time to prepare — and less travel as Alabama has been on the West Coast for more than a week now — he’ll have something schemed up to neutralize a good, not great, North Carolina offensive attack. Play: Alabama +4.5.

No. 1 seed Purdue -5.5 vs. No. 5 seed Gonzaga, over/under: 154.5. Purdue’s market rating might be at an all-time high after blowing out its first two NCAA Tournament opponents, but Gonzaga eclipsed expectations by an even great degree against stronger foes. These are two of the seven most efficient teams in the nation over the last month, per barttorvik.com, and it’s not Purdue (No. 7) who’s ranked higher but rather Gonzaga (No. 3). Purdue center Zach Edey will cause problems in the post for the Bulldogs, but Gonzaga has an edge in the backcourt with the rhythm it’s found. Play: Gonzaga +5.5.

No. 2 seed Marquette -6.5 vs. No. 11 seed North Carolina State, over/under: 151. Play this game before the conference tournaments with healthy rosters on both sides and Marquette would have been pushing a 10-point favorite. N.C. State’s unforeseen run of seven wins in 11 days has been a joy to watch but it’s going to catch up to it at some point. The Wolfpack are playing too high above their baseline to maintain. The Golden Eagles play hounding defense, and Marquette has seen its offense sparked with the return of star point guard Tyler Kolek. Lean: Marquette -6.5.

No. 2 seed Arizona -7.5 vs. No. 6 seed Clemson, over/under: 152. The matchup advantages Clemson quietly held in the first, and certainly second, round are nowhere to be found in the Sweet 16’s opening game. Arizona can overwhelm a lot of opponents athletically, but Clemson may have particular trouble keeping up. The Tigers also have to travel across the country to Los Angeles on a short week after upsetting Baylor Sunday evening. Meanwhile it’s a much shorter trip for the Wildcats, which will draw a partisan crowd. Guess: Arizona -7.5.

No. 1 seed Houston -4 vs. No. 4 seed Duke, over/under: 154.5. The number is trending toward Houston -3.5, which might be enough to elevate the Cougars to a lean. Houston’s harassing style should be able to fluster Duke, which won’t be able to get its offense clicking like it was in a flawless 93-55 victory over James Madison as 6-point favorites last round. Meanwhile, Houston’s near-collapse, late escape against Texas A&M 100-95 as 10.5-point favorites might not be as concerning as it appears. The Cougars need to be better at closing out games, but the fact that they were up 10 with 1:26 to play in regulation is more predictive than allowing a wild comeback. Guess: Houston -4.

No. 1 seed Connecticut -10.5 vs. No. 5 seed San Diego State, over/under: 136. Since losing to Creighton on Feb. 20, Connecticut has reeled off nine straight wins with an 8-1 against the spread record where it’s covered by an average of 8.5 points per game. The market hasn’t been able to catch up to the Huskies’ dominance. This number lands right where I made it, but I’m still haunted, if not embarrassed, by confidently backing San Diego State +7.5 in last year’s national championship before Connecticut rolled 76-59. Guess: Connecticut -10.5.

No. 2 seed Iowa State -1.5 vs. No. 3 seed Illinois, over/under: 146. Typically, a great offensive team (like Illinois) is a better bet than a great defensive team (like Iowa State) when both sides are competent on the other end of the floor. But is Illinois competent on defense? There’s a case to be made that the Illini are the worst defensive team left in the field. The opening spread of Iowa State -2 was correct, but every half point matters extra when the number is this low, and the early action on Illinois clarified the pick. Guess: Iowa State -1.5.

No. 2 seed Tennessee -2.5 vs. No. 3 seed Creighton, over/under: 143.5. I hate not to have strong feelings on most of the games I hyped up as can’t-miss, but the market seems to be on the same page projecting tight outcomes. I backed both the Volunteers and Blue Jays all year thinking they had national-championship upside despite coaching foibles. In a game with two teams that can reach that level, taking the points is usually the preference. Guess: Creighton +2.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or