College football by the odds: Handicapping every Big 12 team’s win total

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 29, 2023 | 2 a.m.

If and when Texas or Oklahoma drops a close game to any opponent other than each other in conference play this year, expect the conspiracy theorists to surface.

No one expects the Longhorns and Sooners to get a friendly whistle from the officials in their final seasons in the Big 12 Conference. Both powerhouses — they’ve combined for 17 Big 12 titles in 29 years with Oklahoma claiming 14 alone and two of the conference’s three national championships — are headed to the SEC starting next season.

It’s going to make for an awkward farewell this year, especially considering the Longhorns and Sooners look far and away like the Big 12’s best teams on paper. Texas is closing in as the odds-on favorite to win the Big 12 at some sports books, with Circa Sports currently offering it at +110 (i.e. risking $100 to win $110).

Oklahoma comes next at the top of the Big 12 odds board at +330. Adjusting for the house’s hold percentage, that implies around a 75% chance that either Texas or Oklahoma hoists the trophy on their way out of the Big 12.  

The Big 12 hasn’t played out to form the last couple seasons though. Each of the last two conference championship games, Baylor vs. Oklahoma State in 2021 and Kansas State vs. TCU in 2022, featured a pair of teams priced in the mid-range of the future odds.

Kansas State (7-to-1), Baylor (17-to-1), TCU (20-to-1) and Oklahoma State (40-to-1) all fit a similar profile this season along with Texas Tech (13-to-1). Meanwhile, UCF (32-to-1), BYU 8-to-1), Cincinnati (125-to-1) and Houston (225-to-1) all move up to the Power Five conference level in the Big 12 this year to preemptively help fill the void Oklahoma and Texas are about to create.

That makes this season the only specific time these teams share a league, adding intrigue to what’s already been one of their more exciting conferences to follow. I’ll do my best to sort it all out by picking every win total in the second part of Talking Points’ preseason college football series.

Check out part 1 here, and read the Big 12 edition below. Listed odds next to the team are from Circa Sports, while the pick comes from the best odds on the chosen side available at the five Las Vegas sports books with win totals available on their mobile apps — Circa, SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, Caesars/William Hill, STN Sports and BetMGM. Picks are labeled in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Plays will be tracked in the Weekend Wagers column throughout the season.

Baylor: 7 wins (over -115, under -105)

The Bears’ dream season two years ago, which resulted in a Big 12 championship, has unreasonably elevated expectations. Baylor doesn’t have the talent to be a perennial contender in the conference but can build a roster to peak every few years. This looks more like a bridge year with further development needed out of talented-but-turnover-prone quarterback Blake Shapen, a lot of new receivers and an inexperienced defense.

Guess: Under 7 wins at -105 (Circa Sports)

BYU: 5.5 wins (over +115, under -135)

It’s difficult to handicap how the four new teams fit moving up to a power conference, but it doesn’t appear to be coming at the best time for BYU. The Cougars are enduring an above-average amount of roster turnover, especially on defense where they’ve been mediocre and brought in a new coordinator in former Weber State coach Jay Hill.  They’ll have a large home-field advantage at LaVell Edwards Stadium against their new conference-mates but will likely need to pull at least one upset there — against either Oklahoma or Texas Tech — to get bowl eligible this year.

Lean: Under 5.5 wins at -105 (STN Sports)

Cincinnati: 5 wins (over -120, under Even money)

Quarterback Emory Jones has underwhelmed at Florida and Arizona State, and there’s not much reason to believe in a drastic change at his third spot. There’s not a whole lot around him with the program transitioning from coach Jeff Brohm to Scott Sattefield, who attacked the portal aggressively to try stay competitive. The defense is green, and the offense may not be able to keep up with the conference’s higher-powered teams.

Lean: Under 5 wins at +110 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

Houston: 4.5 wins (over -110, under -110)

The variance is high here with coach Dana Holgorsen reportedly on the hot seat and Texas Tech transfer quarterback (and Bishop Gorman graduate) Donovan Smith playing a high-risk, high-reward style. But Houston’s schedule is forgivable, and it’s biggest problem a year ago was giving up too many big plays defensively — something that typically doesn’t carry over much from year-to-year.

Lean: Over 4.5 wins at -110 (Circa)

Iowa State: 5.5 wins (over Even money, under -120)

Iowa State’s been cursed in close games for years, and at this point, it might be more than bad luck that’s usually to blame for such results. It might be a result of coach Matt Campbell’s highly-conservative nature. He could get away with some strategic gaffes when the likes of Brock Purdy and Breece Hall were around, but the talent level has since fallen off. There’s even a question of availability with some of the roster coming into the season amid a gambling investigation.

Guess: Under 5.5 wins at -110 (BetMGM)

Kansas: 6 wins (over Even money, under -120)

Yes, the Jayhawks took the type of one-year leap that’s traditionally a precursor for a crash back down the next season. But the betting market is leaning too heavily in that direction and ignoring the fact that they have the most returning production in the nation, per the SP+ ratings. Jalon Daniels is also a rare talent, ranking in the top five quarterbacks in the nation by virtually every advanced metric when he was on the field last year.

Guess: Over 5.5 wins at -150 (BetMGM)

Kansas State: 9.5 wins (over -110, under -110)

Some drop-off should be expected coming off a Big 12 championship season, but a lot of departed star running back Deuce Vaughn’s success was a result of one of the best offensive lines in the conference. And everyone on the unit up front is back. Retaining offensive coordinator Collin Klein, who turned away suitors from bigger-name programs, was also a major victory.  

Guess: Over 7.5 wins at -165 (Caesars/William Hill)

Oklahoma: 9.5 wins (over -110, under -110)

The Sooners are still not on the level they were during Lincoln Riley’s tenure where they won six straight Big 12 titles but their roster quality dwarfs everyone on their schedule other than Texas. Veteran quarterback Dillon Gabriel has Heisman potential, and linebacker Danny Stutsman is almost as impactful on the other side of the ball. The Sooners went 0-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season, a mark highly unlikely to repeat.    

Lean: Over 9.5 wins at +110 (SuperBook)

Oklahoma State: 6.5 wins (over Even money, under -120)

This looks like one of coach Mike Gundy’s worst teams on paper, and his job would be in serious jeopardy if the Big 12 schedule-makers slotted the Cowboys with as much as a moderately-difficult slate. But that didn’t happen. The Cowboys have far and away the easiest schedule in the conference with games against each of the six teams power-rated below them and their two toughest tests — against Oklahoma and Kansas State — conveniently falling at home.

Play: Over 6 wins at -140 (Caesars/William Hill)

TCU: 7.5 wins (over -130, under +110)

Similar to Kansas State, it’s natural to want to fade TCU coming off a monstrous year — including a  College Football Playoff appearance — but the number leaves little room to execute it. The Horned Frogs lose a lot of their best players, but falling off by four wins is too much with the offensive consistency borne out of having Sonny Dykes as a coach.

Lean: Over 7.5 wins at -130 (Circa)

Texas: 9.5 wins (over -145, under +125)

The Longhorns are a touchdown underdog at Alabama in Week 2, but otherwise a sizable favorite in every game. That’s unlikely change, as they not only have a full lineup of five-star players starting but also enviable depth all over the roster. This would have been a play when it opened closer to a pick’em price on 9.5 wins, but now the better way to bet Texas might be by taking them to win the conference at +120 or reach the College Football Playoff at around +350.

Lean: Over 9.5 wins at -130 (SuperBook)

Texas Tech: 7.5 (over Even money, under -120)

Second-year coach Joey McGuire will win a Big 12 Championship at Texas Tech. It just won’t be this year. The hype has gone too far. The Red Raiders are a trendy sleeper pick in the Big 12 even though they’re defensively vulnerable and lost their best player in current Raiders edge rusher Tyree Wilson. Quarterback Tyler Shough gives them a high ceiling, but he’s injury prone and the Red Raiders are saddled with a tough schedule including a challenging first two weeks at Wyoming and hosting Oregon.

Play: Under 7.5 wins at -120 (Circa)

UCF: 7 (over -115, under -105)

Unlike some of the other Big 12 newcomers, UCF has taken a long-term view and built up its roster for this moment. Experience and size don’t guarantee results, but it’s a nice starting point. The Knights did lose some contributors in the transfer portal, but should be buoyed by the return of John Rhys Plumlee, who gives them one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation.

Play: Over 7 wins at Even money (SuperBook)

West Virginia: 4.5 (over -120, under Even money)

Embattled coach Neal Brown might not make it to midseason with non-conference tilts against Penn State and Pittsburgh scheduled before Big 12 play begins. The Mountaineers don’t have the muscle in the middle of the field to hold up and are lacking continuity after losing a handful of players in the portal. The win total is a fairer 4.5 at most sports books, but the under 5.5 available locally isn’t juiced nearly enough.  

Play: Under 5.5 wins at -180 (Caesars/William Hill)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or