Vegas pick’em: NFL divisional round winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Jan. 19, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Scoring was down in the NFL throughout the regular season, but it was up to start the playoffs.

In a boon to the betting public, the first five games of last weekend’s wild-card round slate ended up going over the total. The only thing that prevented the Monday Night Football finale between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers from joining the fray were four missed extra points from kicker Brett Maher.

The game fell under the closing 45.5 total by a half-point in the Cowboys’ 31-14 victory.

The parade of points was a clean break from the first 18 weeks of the season, where the average of 43.8 points per game was the fewest since 2017. Blindly betting under on every game this regular season would have been a profitable strategy as unders finished with a 149-119-3 record.

To keep up the high playoff pace of overs this weekend, the final eight teams will need to score at an even higher clip. The average total at sports books in the four divisional round games is 48.75 as opposed to 44.33 a week ago.

The first game up, Jaguars at Chiefs at 1:30 p.m. Saturday, has the highest total at 53. Jacksonville was only tied with Miami and the New York Giants for the third-highest scoring team a week ago — behind San Francisco (41) and Buffalo (34) — but their crazy comeback in a 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers will be remembered for years to come.

Read below to find my handicap on Jaguars at Chiefs and the other three games of the divisional round. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year now stands at 147-124-8 after I went 3-3 last week.

Plays (40-35-7)

Dallas Cowboys +4 at San Francisco 49ers The 49ers rank 24^th in the league per Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings in defending deep passes and they’ve been fortunate to mostly evade opponents capable of attacking that weakness during an 11-game winning streak. That changes here. Take advantage of Las Vegas being home to several of the only sports books in the world that have this spread at 4 instead of 3.5.

Leans (53-47-1)

Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 vs. New York Giants A month ago, the Eagles gave 7.5 points at the Giants and it wasn’t nearly enough as they cruised to a 48-22 victory. The Giants are certainly playing better now, but adjusting the spread this far looks like a case of recency bias. Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts is off the injury report, making skepticism about the health of his injured shoulder seem unfounded.

Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals With a defense that gave up 5.6 yards per play to a Tyler Huntley-led Ravens’ team and an injury-plagued offensive line barely holding it together, the Bengals are not the team that took the NFL by storm through mid-December. It’s entirely unfair to them that this game is being played at Highmark Stadium when a potential AFC Championship Game between Kansas City and Buffalo will be at a neutral field but that’s another big edge in the Bills’ favor.

Guesses (54-42)

Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars This number looks spot-on, but historically the bye week has been a bigger advantage than the betting market has priced it. It’s become cliché to express confidence in Kansas City coach Andy Reid, but there’s no disputing how well his teams have performed with extra time to rest and prepare.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or