Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 18 winners against the spread in final games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The Green Bay Packers’ odds to reach the playoffs were so slim after a 40-33 Week 12 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles that sports books around Las Vegas took them down.

The Packers had fallen to 5-8 on the year and looked destined to miss the postseason for just the third time in 14 seasons with a healthy Aaron Rodgers starting at quarterback. They haven’t lost since, and everything has changed.

Green Bay is now heavily favored to claim a wild-card spot in the NFC playoffs, only needing to beat the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football to clinch it. The current moneyline of Green Bay -220 (i.e. risking $220 to win $100), with Detroit coming back at +190 (i.e. risking $100 to win $190), implies a 67% chance the Packers will complete their incredible season comeback.

The Lions (+650 to make the playoffs at Circa Sports) and Seattle Seahawks (+310) are the other teams still in the running for the same No. 7 seed the Packers are chasing. Seattle needs to beat the Los Angeles Rams and see Detroit top Green Bay to get in. Detroit will need a win to go with a Rams’ upset over the Seahawks.

It’s all part of the fun of Week 18, where a lot of games won’t matter but a handful have stakes as high as possible for the regular season. I’ll try to navigate them the best I can for one final picks column.

Read on for picks on every Week 18 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year now stands at 135-114-8 after an 11-4 showing last week.

Plays (36-32-7)

Detroit Lions +4.5 at Green Bay Packers Statistically, the Lions and Packers shape up as remarkably similar — the former has a decent-sized advantage on offense and the latter has a decent-sized advantage on defense — so there’s no justifying this large of a spread. Even if the Lions are eliminated before kickoff, they should still be motivated to play spoiler against one of their archrivals.

Cleveland Browns +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers Not a single one of the Steelers’ five wins in their last six games have come by more than a touchdown. The Browns are on a similar, though less praised, ascent where they’ve won four of six with all but one of the victories coming by more than a touchdown. Cleveland isn’t playing for anything but it’s the better team.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos Talk about getting healthy and peaking at the right time; the Chargers have won four straight behind the fullest roster they’ve fielded since the beginning of the season. They also haven’t been shy about stating their desire to earn the AFC’s No. 5 seed and the Broncos shouldn’t provide much resistance.

Houston Texans +3 at Indianapolis Colts The Colts are dead last in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA metric, which emphasizes recent performance more than a team’s full-season profile. In other words, Indianapolis shouldn’t be favored against anyone — including Houston.

Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 at Las Vegas Raiders The Chiefs were a 10.5-point favorite by the lookahead line a week ago after the Raiders announced they were benching Derek Carr for the season. A three-point adjustment based on what might have been a one-off inspired Raiders’ performance behind Carr’s replacement, Jarrett Stidham, is way too much.

Leans (50-44-1)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5 at Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay will play its starters despite being locked into the No. 4 NFC playoff seed, and their presence alone is enough to make this line too high. Coach Todd Bowles said he may rest some players in the second half, but even when and if that happens, Atlanta doesn’t have the firepower to pull away and blow out Tampa Bay.

Miami Dolphins pick’em vs. New York Jets Hot take alert: Is Miami third-string starting quarterback Skylar Thompson really all that much worse than Jets quarterback Mike White, who threw for 5.2 yards per attempt and two interceptions against the Seahawks’ lowly defense last week? The Dolphins were a 3-point favorite in this matchup on the road in October, and though they lost 40-17, they led with 10 minutes to play behind Thompson before the game spiraled out of control.

Minnesota Vikings -5.5 at Chicago Bears The Vikings need to establish something positive going into the playoffs after a recent decline; the Bears need to get the best draft position possible. Both factors point to Minnesota rolling here.

San Francisco 49ers -14 vs. Arizona Cardinals The Cardinals have lost six in a row and their roster hardly resembles the one they built coming into the season because of injuries. The 49ers have won nine in a row and aren’t going to slow down with a victory needed to clinch the No. 2 seed.

Guesses (49-38)

New Orleans Saints -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers The Saints are the NFL’s 12^th-ranked team by weighted DVOA, and pretty clearly the best team in the NFC South. They only have themselves, and their penchant for late-game collapses, to blame for having clinched a losing record.

New England Patriots +7.5 at Buffalo Bills As it currently stands, this game looks like it will be significantly more important to New England’s playoff standing. Buffalo coach Sean McDermott has rested starters at the end of the season in the past and probably won’t hesitate to do so again if his team is locked into playing in the wild-card round next week.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 vs. Baltimore Ravens The Bengals have covered in seven straight games while seemingly improving in every area. The Ravens meanwhile are stuck in the mud and their efforts to fight out seem futile without quarterback Lamar Jackson, who may miss his fifth straight start.

Tennessee Titans +6.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars The Titans under coach Mike Vrabel typically come through in these spots where they’re being counted out, but that’s not the primary reason I’m picking the Titans despite the number looking just about right. Rather, it’s because this makes for a natural spot to middle my future position on the Jaguars to win the AFC South.

Los Angeles Rams +6.5 at Seattle Seahawks The number is right and the Seahawks are the only team playing for anything, but they haven’t been favored by this many points in a single game all season. The Rams aren’t a total pushover, especially not on defense, and could provide a scare to their playoff-hopeful NFC West rival.

Philadelphia Eagles -14 vs. New York Giants Read between the lines and it appears the Giants might be resting more players than any other team in the NFL this week because they’re already settled into the NFC’s No. 6 seed. The Eagles need a win to get the bye that comes with the No. 1 seed, and won’t take any chances by not running up the score if necessary.

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 at Washington Commanders The Cowboys are typically a bigger mess than their opponent, but the narrative is flipped this time around. Between their ping-ponging of quarterbacks, coach Ron Rivera not knowing his team’s playoff position and an inconsistent defense, the Commanders can’t be trusted.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or