Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 4 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The Raiders are the lone team with an 0-3 straight-up record in the NFL, but at least they have some company against the spread.

The New Orleans Saints join the Raiders as the only NFL teams yet to cover through three weeks of the season, and the former has actually been a worse bet than the latter. New Orleans hasn’t as much as threatened to beat the point spread, failing to cover by a combined 21.5 points through three games. Las Vegas has only failed to cover by a combined 17 points.

The two teams’ early struggles make for a mixed bag for Talking Points. While the column is off to a good start after betting on the Raiders to go under 8.5 wins at +140 (i.e. risking $100 towin $140), it’s fallen underwater on the wager on the Saints (1-2 straight-up) to win the NFC South at +360.

It’s too early to celebrate or panic on either team. They’ll each have opportunities to rebound both in the standings and at the sports books, starting this week when they’re both in games lined around a field goal.

Find out why I’m leaning towards there not being a single winless team against the spread after this weekend in the picks below.

Read on for picks on every Week 4 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Last week’s performance was the best of the year so far at 9-6-1 including 2-1-1 on plays, leaving the overall season mark at 24-23-1.

Plays (8-3-1)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Tampa Bay might have its best defense since its Super Bowl team 20 years ago. Kansas City’s offense could conceivably be at that level itself, but it hasn’t shown many signs of that being the case and has actually been pedestrian since a 44-21 win over an injury-ravaged Arizona defense in Week 1.

Chicago Bears +3.5 at New York Giants Gobble up the couple remaining +3.5 lines because there’s no way either of these highly-flawed sides should be favored by that much against anyone. The Giants’ offense might have a slight advantage over the Bears’, but the Chicago’s defense has actually been above average and gives it far and away the best unit on the field in this matchup.

Baltimore Ravens +3 vs. Buffalo Bills The Bills’ cluster injury in the secondary is an even bigger issue this week than it was in last week’s 21-19 loss to the Dolphins as 4-point favorites. No one is hitting explosive plays in the passing game more consistently than Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who’s already thrown for 10 touchdowns and 10 completions of 20 yards or more.

New Orleans Saints +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings in London The Saints have played much better than public perception considering they’re at +1.08 net yards per play; the Vikings are at -0.55. The biggest thing that’s held New Orleans back is a -6 turnover margin including three lost fumbles, numbers that should regress over the course of the year.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 at Houston Texans This feels like a buy-low spot on the Chargers, which are inundated with injuries but should get some relief this week with the expected return of wide receiver Keenan Allen. Their talent level should be able to overwhelm the Texans.

Leans (9-13)

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. New York Jets Steelers’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t excelled but he also hasn’t been as much of a liability as most are describing, especially considering he’s taken on an above-average slate of defenses. He should get more breathing room here with the Jets dead-last in the league on defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Philadelphia Eagles Wynn is one of the only sports books in the world still offering Jacksonville at +7 -120, a better bet than +6.5 -110. Either way, it’s too many points for a team that’s been among the NFL’s best on a per-play efficiency basis to start the year.

Atlanta Falcons +2 vs. Cleveland Browns This is a fair price if Cleveland star edge rusher Myles Garrett plays and is close to 100% after a wreck where he flipped his car earlier in the week. That feels like a pretty big assumption, however, and Garrett is the rare defensive player who’s worth at least a point on the spread.

Detroit Lions -4 vs. Seattle Seahawks The number has drifted too far down after getting as high as Detroit -6.5 earlier in the week. The Lions have some injury concerns, namely with running back D’Andre Swift being doubtful and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown questionable, but the market has over-corrected for their potential absences.

San Francisco 49ers -1.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams Finishing drives has been the primary issue with the San Francisco offense as it rates 27^th in the league in red-zone efficiency. That’s something to trust 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan to figure out, and a more telling statistic is that they’re fourth in the league at +1.15 net yards per play.

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans Take away one half against the Raiders (last week’s 24-10 first half) and the Titans have been arguably the worst team in the league. The Colts haven’t been much better, but they came into the year with a better roster and have also stayed healthier.

Guesses (7-7)

Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos It appears the Raiders will get back most of their injured defensive players, which was the only thing holding this spot back from looking like a rallying point. But stay away, or maybe even consider the Broncos, if this climbing spread reaches higher than -3 .

New England Patriots +10 at Green Bay Packers There’s been a lot of debate on whether New England coach Bill Belichick remains at the top of his game, and this week’s contest should provide the most fascinating data point yet. Historically, these are the types of spots where Belichick-coached teams come through to cover inflated point spreads.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 vs. Miami Dolphins The Bengals were an easy play at the opening -2.5, but this number might have moved too far since then. It’s a great spot for Cincinnati given Miami is on a short week for the first time under new coach Mike McDaniel and coming off a draining 21-19 upset win over Buffalo but this is a large premium to pay.

Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. Washington Commanders It feels like the love for quarterback Cooper Rush has gone too far, so I’m looking for spots to sell on the Cowboys but this might not be it against a punchless opponent. Washington has been the worst team in the league by DVOA.

Arizona Cardinals +1.5 at Carolina Panthers The number is exactly right, hence why it hasn’t budged at several sports books. I’m only siding with the Cardinals because they theoretically have the higher upside with quarterback Kyler Murray’s playmaking ability.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or