Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 1 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 8, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Betting on the opening slate of NFL games presents a different challenge than any other week of the season.

The usual rhythm of the professional football betting market will reveal itself starting in Week 2 and last all the way through the playoffs. That includes most sports books posting opening lines Sunday night before everyone else joins in on Monday. There might be an initial surge of money, but the real movement doesn’t start until Wednesday with the release of injury reports and raising of betting limits.

It gets easier and easier to get down large, odds-shifting wagers all the way up until kickoff Sunday morning before the whole cycle starts over again.

The whole process is interrupted in Week 1 because the lines on these 16 games have taken action for months, ever since May when the NFL announced the season-long schedule. In theory, all that extra attention makes for more efficient lines.

But that hasn’t traditionally bothered the NFL pick’em. In the eight years since implementing the current format, I’ve gone 67-55-6 on Week 1 including 17-15-1 on plays.

The aim is to build on that success this week and start the year on pace to eclipse last season's mediocre 139-145-1 (48-43 on plays, 48-44 on leans and 43-58 on guesses) overall record.

Read below for picks on every Week 1 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. 

Plays (0-0)

Houston Texans +7.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts South Point and Wynn are two of the last sports books on Earth with the half-point hook still attached on the Texans to make this a must-play. Houston shouldn’t be nearly as bad as everyone thinks with a cadre of exciting young players like rookies Dameon Pierce at running back and Derek Stingley at cornerback to go with a promising second-year quarterback in Davis Mills.  

Minnesota Vikings +2 vs. Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers has proven everyone wrong before, but it’s hard to see the Packers’ back-to-back MVP quarterback having the upper hand on the road with a dearth of receivers now including an injury to de facto No. 1 Allen Lazard. Things should be looking up for the Vikings under new coach Kevin O’Connell, and they should close a slight favorite here.  

New England Patriots +3.5 at Miami Dolphins It’s difficult to dispute that the Patriots looked like a mess in preseason and practice, but does that really merit the addition of the most key half-point (from 3 to 3.5) in football betting? They still have a major continuity edge over the Dolphins making their debut with first-time head coach Mike McDaniel.

Baltimore Ravens -7 at New York Jets Sorry but no, I’m not buying the chatter that the Jets starting Joe Flacco over Zach Wilson, who will miss the first four weeks of the season with injury, is an upgrade. Flacco significantly limits the Jets’ ceiling, a ceiling they need to hope they can tap into against a Ravens’ side that looks as complete as any in the league.   

Leans (0-0)

Denver Broncos -6 at Seattle Seahawks The Broncos’ new offense under coach Nathaniel Hackett and quarterback Russell Wilson figures to be high-flying and modern, while the Seahawks’ offense with new starter Geno Smith projects as a middling at best and antiquated. More than likely, the home team won’t be able to keep up.

Carolina Panthers -1.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Carolina’s young defense could make a leap this season, and the Browns present an opportunity for a fast start considering how poorly Jacoby Brissett has played when pushed into action in recent years. Cleveland’s defense, on the other hand, often seems overestimated as beyond Myles Garrett, it’s more solid than outstanding.  

Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 at Cincinnati Bengals There’s a lot of talk of Cincinnati having an improved offensive line with the additions of Ted Karras, Alex Cappa and La’el Collins, and while that may prove true, this is a daunting first task for a new unit. Pittsburgh ranked second in the league in adjusted sack rate last season, and that was while dealing with a number of defensive injuries throughout the year.

Chicago Bears +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers Are we sure San Francisco’s Trey Lance is the better second-year quarterback starter against Chicago’s Justin Fields? And yes, there’s less dispute that the rest of the San Francisco roster is superior to Chicago’s but this is quite the premium to pay on a road team dealing with a lot of offensive uncertainty.

Dallas Cowboys +2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers These teams are evenly-matched by most metrics with similar injury concerns among the offensive line and skill positions, so it doesn’t make much sense that the home team is getting points. Consider the betting Cowboys at +120 (i.e. risking $100 to win $120) on the moneyline because that’s mathematically a better bet than laying -110 (i.e. $110 to win $100) on -2.5.

Los Angeles Rams +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills This number moved from Rams -1 upon the news of Matthew Stafford’s elbow inflammation last month, so the question becomes how significantly a bettor thinks the Los Angeles quarterback will be affected early in the season. Stafford has fought through injuries to perform at a high level throughout his career, so I tend to think there’s a better chance he’s fine than limited.

Tennessee Titans -5.5 vs. New York Giants The Giants project as far and away the worst team in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. The respect, if not hype, they’re commanding solely off hiring Brian Daboll as coach is overstated in what looks like a bridge year before he can fully bring in his own core.

Guesses (0-0)

Detroit Lions +4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Both of these teams are bet-on sides for me, so it’s a shame they play in Week 1. The number also looks accurate, but when in doubt, I like to take points with underdogs early in the season when teams are closer to full-strength and yet to create separation from each other.

Washington Commanders -2.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars I bet Jacksonville +3.5 last month, but this feels like too big of a move to occur between two evenly-matched teams. The Jaguars look to have the better offense, but the Commanders’ defense is the best unit in the game.    

Arizona Cardinals +6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs This line moved from -3.5 in a week, which feels a little aggressive even in a game that has Week 1’s highest total at 53.5. Kansas City should win, but Arizona has enough firepower even without suspended receiver Deandre Hopkins to stay competitive.  

New Orleans Saints -5.5 at Atlanta Falcons The spread is exactly what I made it, but seems more likely to move in the Saints’ direction. The Falcons have too many roster deficiencies, namely with a pass rush here that shouldn’t be able harass Saints quarterback Jameis Winston enough to force mistakes.    

Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders The Raiders would have probably been the pick at the opening price of 4, but this move is too significant even with the expected absence of Chargers’ cornerback J.C. Jackson. Los Angeles has the more well-rounded roster even without the prized free-agent acquisition.   

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or