College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 8 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The Heisman Trophy race is supposed to be just now heating up with the college football season arriving in the latter half of the year.

Instead, it’s at risk of running away completely. One question remains regarding one of the most coveted individual trophies in sports — Can anyone catch Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud?

It’s beginning to look doubtful considering Stroud stayed the odds-on favorite to take home the honors despite not playing last week with the Buckeyes on a bye. Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker seemed to make a charge in leading his team to an upset win over Alabama with more than 500 total yards and five touchdowns, but his overall numbers still pale in comparison.

Stroud leads the nation with 24 touchdown passes and an average of 10.9 yards per pass attempt as well as sitting first in virtually every all-encompassing advanced statistic. He was a consensus -150 (i.e. risking $150 to win $100) to win the Heisman going into Week 7, but he’s down to as low as -110 coming off the break.

Hooker has moved to the clear second choice off his big win at as low as +250 (i.e. risking $100 to win $250). If there was ever a time for Stroud to slip, it would appear to be now.

Ohio State faces a pair of top-10 defenses the next two weeks in Iowa (No. 1 by the SP+ ratings) and Penn State (No. 6). If Stroud continues with anywhere near the same rate of production, he could be a historically large favorite for the Heisman entering November.

Stay tuned to see how I handicap the action for the rest of the year, starting with this week’s Iowa at Ohio State matchup.

Read below for picks on every Week 8 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories. The record for the season stands at 213-159-3 (42-44 on plays, 81-51-3 on leans and 90-64 on guesses) after a 35-16 (6-7 on plays, 11-9 on leans and 14-9 on guesses) performance in Week 7.

Big Games

Iowa +29 at Ohio State, over/under: 49.5. The number might look awfully high but a great offense is usually going to beat a great defense. And “great” might not go far enough in describing Ohio State’s offense, especially with No. 1 receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba likely to return this week. Guess: Ohio State -29.

Syracuse +13.5 at Clemson, over/under: 52.5. This point spread is spot-on but the situation might ever so slightly favor the Orange. Clemson is coming off big wins in its perceived two toughest games over the last three weeks, against Florida State and NC State, but needs to be careful not to overlook the stingy Syracuse defense. Guess: Syracuse +13.5.

Ole Miss +1.5 at LSU, over/under: 66.5. If LSU’s offensive breakout in last week’s 45-35 win at Florida as 1.5-point underdogs is real, the Tigers can strike fear into everyone left on their schedule. This should be a close, high-scoring game but LSU coach Brian Kelly is easier to trust than Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin in such an affair. Lean: LSU -1.5.

UCLA +6 at Oregon, over/under: 70.5. UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is fifth in the nation in both QBR and expected points added per play, and Oregon’s secondary might be the most suspect part of its roster. This is borderline and wouldn’t be a play at anything less than 6 since the Ducks still have more talented overall team but it’s too many points at the moment. Play: UCLA +6.

Texas -6 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 64.5. The Longhorns were sloppy in last week’s 24-21 win over Iowa State as 16.5-point favorites but all that does is offers a relative buy-low this week. Oklahoma State doesn’t have the defense of Iowa State to slow the likes of Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and running back Bijan Robinson. Play: Texas -6.

Mississippi State +21 at Alabama, over/under: 61.5. It’s reasonable to expect Alabama to be locked in after a loss and two poor performances but this number is disrespectful to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs played their worst game of the year last week too, losing 27-17 to Kentucky as 4-point favorites, but have otherwise performed like a fringe top 10 team. Lean: Mississippi State +21.

Kansas State +3.5 at TCU, over/under: 58.5. The spot looks beneficial to Kansas State as it’s coming off a bye as opposed to TCU returning from a 43-40 comeback overtime victory against Oklahoma State as 4-point favorites. But that shouldn’t outweigh the fact that the Horned Frogs have been more efficient and explosive than the Wildcats on the season despite facing a tougher schedule. Guess: TCU -3.5.

Big Plays

Toledo -6.5 at Buffalo, over/under: 60.5. Buffalo has won and covered in four straight, but may have faced the weakest schedule in the nation over that stretch. Toledo is a cut above everyone in the MAC, and worth continuing to play every week until the market catches up. Play: Toledo -6.5.

Memphis +7 at Tulane, over/under: 56. Tulane has played extremely well but hasn’t encountered many high-powered passing games. That changes here as Tigers quarterback Seth Henigan is a bad matchup for the Green Wave, which may not have the firepower to survive a shootout. Play: Memphis +7.

Marshall +13.5 at James Madison, over/under: 54.5. The Dukes have been one of the most impressive teams in the nation, but the time to sell high arrived last week — they lost their first game 45-38 to Georgia Southern as 13-point favorites — and the opportunity is extended for a repeat performance here. The Thundering Herd have a lot more talent, and coming into the season, this line would have been flipped. Play: Marshall +13.5.

BYU -7 at Liberty, over/under: 57.5. There’s a chance veteran quarterback Charlie Brewer could return from injury for the Flames this week to make this game a virtual coin flip. Even if he doesn’t, Liberty has a strong enough defense to keep the score low and hang with BYU. Play: Liberty +7.

Arizona State +3.5 at Stanford, over/under: 55.5. Don’t adjust Stanford too upwardly off last week’s 16-14 upset win at Notre Dame considering it was outplayed and benefited from recovering two of three fumbles. Arizona State was on a bye, meaning it has a situational edge to pair with what was already a talent edge. Play: Arizona State +3.5.

Boise State +3 at Air Force, over/under: 48.5. Air Force went on the road and won 24-17 at Boise State a year ago, and brings back the same team this season while the Broncos have weakened. This is slight value, but with a few 3s left available to bet, it’s worth picking off before the game permanently goes to a more defendable -3.5. Play: Air Force -3.

Other Games

Play: Pittsburgh +2 at Louisville

Lean: Penn State -4 vs. Minnesota

Lean: Georgia Southern +2 at Old Dominion

Lean: South Carolina +4 vs. Texas A&M

Lean: Wake Forest -21 vs. Boston College

Lean: San Diego State -6.5 at UNR

Lean: Texas Tech -7 vs. West Virginia

Lean: Louisiana Tech +3.5 vs. Rice

Lean: Eastern Michigan +2.5 at Ball State

Lean: Houston -3 at Navy

Lean: Central Michigan -6 vs. Bowling Green

Lean: Army -6.5 vs. UL-Monroe

Lean: Troy +3.5 at South Alabama

Lean: Georgia State +10.5 at Appalachian State

Lean: Louisiana -6.5 vs. Arkansas State

Lean: North Texas +10 at UTSA

Lean: Rutgers -3 vs. Indiana

Lean: Wisconsin -1.5 vs. Purdue

Lean: Missouri -13.5 vs. Vanderbilt

Lean: Western Michigan +6.5 at Miami (Ohio)

Lean: Colorado State -4.5 vs. Hawaii

Guess: Southern Miss -2 at Texas State

Guess: UCF -4.5 at East Carolina

Guess: UNLV +25 at Notre Dame

Guess: Northwestern +14 at Maryland

Guess: UTEP +4.5 vs. Florida Atlantic

Guess: Utah State +4 at Wyoming

Guess: Cincinnati -3 at SMU

Guess: Western Kentucky -2.5 vs. UAB

Guess: Duke +8 at Miami

Guess: Akron +19 at Kent State

Guess: Northern Illinois -2 at Ohio

Guess: Kansas +9 at Baylor

Guess: Fresno State -10.5 at New Mexico

Guess: Florida International +14.5 at Charlotte

Guess: Oregon State -24 vs. Colorado

Guess: Virginia +3 at Georgia Tech

Guess: San Jose State -21.5 at New Mexico State

Guess: Washington -7.5 at California

Guess: Temple +13 vs. Tulsa

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or