College football by the odds: Bowl pick’em Against the Spread Part 3

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Eight years in, the College Football Playoff has been all chalk.

Favored teams have mostly rolled in the four-team playoff, especially in the semifinal round. There’s been one outright semifinal upset in the last four years —Ohio State’s 49-28 decimation of Clemson two years ago. Overall, favorites are 12-4 straight-up, 10-6 against the spread in the semifinals.

Can the run extend for another year when this season’s College Football Playoff commences on New Year’s Eve? On paper, this year’s pair of games — No. 2 Michigan -7.5 vs. No. 3 TCU in the Fiesta Bowl and No. 1 Georgia -6.5 vs. No. 4 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl — presents better upset opportunities than usual.

The combined semifinal point spreads are the second lowest in the history of the playoff, behind 2018 when Georgia edged Oklahoma 54-48 as 2.5-point favorites and Alabama crushed Clemson 24-6 as 3.5-point favorites.

Favorites have not only won outright but covered in four straight College Football Playoff games dating back to the championship of the 2020 season. It’s up to the Horned Frogs and Buckeyes to buck the trend this year.

Check back to see how I handicapped both games along with picks on the rest of the remaining bowl games before the national championship. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The bowl record through two columns sits at 11-13-1 (4-2-1 on plays, 4-5 on leans and 3-6 on guesses).

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl at 11 a.m. Thursday in New York: Syracuse +10 vs. Minnesota, over/under: 42.5. The weather forecast looks relatively clear, which is a benefit to the more explosive team in Minnesota. The Gophers have also dealt with fewer defections both among the roster and coaching staff. Guess: Minnesota -10.

Cheez-It Bowl at 5:30 p.m. Thursday in Orlando: Oklahoma +9 vs. Florida State, over/under: 66. It’s somewhat of a concern that the whole world appears to be laying the points with Florida State, but on paper, the confidence level makes sense. The Seminoles have an extremely low number of absences for a program of their stature while the Sooners are dealing with an abundance, especially in the trenches. Lean: Florida State -9.

Valero Alamo Bowl at 6 p.m. Thursday in San Antonio, Texas: Washington +3.5 vs. Texas, over/under: 67.5. There’s a reason why Washington coach Kalen DeBoer is yet to post a losing season against the spread: He always has his teams well-prepared and ready to go. That advantage should only be magnified with a month to prepare ahead of a bowl game against a Longhorns’ team that’s seen several departures including running back Bijan Robinson. Play: Washington +3.5.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl at 9 a.m. Friday in Charlotte: Maryland pick’em vs. NC State, over/under: 46. Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa will play, but his receiving corps is decimated. NC State may be the more motivated side with the fuller roster and the possible chance to get promising quarterback-of-the-future MJ Morris, who’s questionable, valuable playing time. Lean: NC State pick’em.

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl at 11 a.m. Friday in El Paso, Texas: Pittsburgh +5.5. at UCLA, over/under: 53.5. Number is about right, and Pittsburgh has far more transfers and opt-outs, but can’t shake the fact that these teams looked pretty evenly-matched throughout the year. I’d rather take the points in what could be a windy, and therefore sloppy, game. Guess: Pittsburgh +5.5.

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl at 12:30 p.m. Friday in Jacksonville. Fla.: Notre Dame -2 vs. South Carolina, over/under: 52. South Carolina’s offense was humming late in the year, but offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield bailed for Nebraska and a replacement playcaller has not been announced. The Gamecocks are also thin up front, at least in comparison to Notre Dame’s formidable line play. Lean: Notre Dame -2.

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl at 1:30 p.m. Friday in Tucson, Ariz.: Ohio -1 vs. Wyoming, over/under: 42.5. The MAC has held its own in bowl season — going 3-2 against the spread and straight-up without a single loss by more than five points — and Ohio looked like the league’s most dangerous team down the stretch of the season. Wyoming meanwhile only wants to run the ball and has seen a mass exodus of running backs. Play: Ohio -1.

Capital One Orange Bowl at 5 p.m. Friday in Miami: Tennessee +5.5 at Clemson, over/under: 63.5. Tennessee’s roster is a shell of the one that threatened to make the College Football Playoff for most of the year, but this feels like a rather large adjustment to try to account for that. The Volunteers would have been pushing a touchdown favorite in this game as recently as two games ago. Guess: Tennessee +5.5.

TransPerfect Music City Bowl at 9 a.m. Saturday in Nashville: Iowa -2.5 vs. Kentucky, over/under: 31.5. Both teams are down their quarterbacks, but Kentucky has been slightly better than Iowa on the year by measures like net yards per play and expected points added per play. The Wildcats might be without a few more key players but they shouldn’t have drifted out to this large of an underdog. Lean: Kentucky +2.5.

Allstate Sugar Bowl at 9 a.m. Saturday in New Orleans: Alabama -6.5 vs. Kansas State, over/under: 56. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young might be the best offensive player in the nation, and teammate linebacker Will Anderson might be the best defensive player in the nation. The line only moving three points when both announced they would play in the bowl game — not to mention other Crimson Tide standouts like running back Jahmyr Gibbs — is not enough. Play: Alabama -6.5.

VRBO Fiesta Bowl at 1 p.m. Saturday in Glendale, Ariz: TCU +7.5 vs. Michigan, over/under: 59. The Wolverines could easily blow out the Horned Frogs if they play to their potential, but that hasn’t happened all that often this season. They showed up in a big way in their biggest game of the year, beating Ohio State 45-23 as 9-point underdogs, but have otherwise been relatively inconsistent with a handful of close calls. Michigan also doesn’t come into the semifinals totally healthy as one-time Heisman hopeful Blake Corum is still out and star edge rusher Mike Morris is nursing an injury. TCU looks healthier and coach Sonny Dykes is such an offensive tactician that he should have a plan in place to be able to move the ball on a strong Michigan defense. The Wolverines should win but laying more than a touchdown is too high of an asking price. Lean: TCU +7.5.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at 5 p.m. Saturday in Atlanta: Georgia -6.5 vs. Ohio State, over/under: 62. This is an unfortunate draw for the Bulldogs considering the Buckeyes, despite the loss to the Wolverines, still lead the nation in expected points added per play. Many sets of power ratings have these as the two best teams in the nation. Georgia avoided its worst-case scenario, however, when both Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njiba and running back TreVeyon Henderson were ruled out for the semifinal. Those are arguably Ohio State’s two best players and could have given the Buckeyes a lift after missing most of the season with injury. Georgia may now have a slight edge overall at the skill positions with the likes of tight end Brock Bowers and running back Kenny McIntosh. There’s a reason this number bounced immediately down at shops that opened -7, and straight up when it’s touched -6. There are sharp bettors on both sides. The number looks perfect. This one might be best to watch and bet live or at halftime. Guess: Georgia -6.5.

ReliaQuest Bowl at 9 a.m. Monday in Tampa. Fla.: Mississippi State pick’em vs. Illinois, over/under: 46. Illinois’ defense was the biggest reason for its ascent this year, but now the Illini have seen the departure of defensive coordinator Ryan Walters (who took Purdue’s head-coaching job) as well as its two best defensive backs. Those are all significant absences going up against the Bulldogs’ Air Raid offense. Play: Mississippi State pick’em.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at 10 a.m. Monday in Arlington, Texas: Tulane +2 vs. USC, over/under: 62. It might be hard to believe but the Green Wave are the better team if Heisman winner Caleb Williams sits out for the Trojans. The quarterback has reportedly said he plans to play but that’s hard to believe as he’s currently nursing a hamstring injury and will be without several of his top weapons. Play: Tulane +2.

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl at 10 a.m. Monday in Orlando, Fla.: LSU -15 vs. Purdue, over/under: 56.5. LSU opened as low as a 6.5-point favorite, which hands down now looks like the best bet of bowl season with Purdue set to run out a team of second- and third-stringers — and a makeshift coaching staff to boot — after opt-outs and transfers. There’s no value left but it’s difficult to imagine Purdue hanging with LSU. Guess: LSU -15.

Rose Bowl at 2 p.m. Monday in Pasadena, Calif.: Penn State +2.5 vs. Utah, over/under: 52.5. Penn State finished the year rated higher than Utah by both net yards per play and expected points added per play, and has seen less impactful opt-outs ahead of this game. The Utes have a travel advantage but that shouldn’t amount for much, certainly not enough to make them a favorite in this game. Play: Penn State +2.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or