User profile: rwalker07

Joined: Oct. 2, 2008

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Posted on: Time for something drastic?

I hate to say it, but as usual Haney's article does not paint an accurate picture.

Parlay cards, because they are printed 3 to 5 days in advance of a game, often see substantial line moves.

This is the case in weekly parlay cards, as well as daily parlay cards made early in the morning on a daily basis.

As a sports book manager, it is only as a last resort that we take a game off of the card. Our goal is never to stop a customer from wagering.

What we watch for, are players that just key the games that differ greatly from the card to the current line.

The reason is clear, if a player bets a four-team parlay and ALL four games have moved a point or more in his favor, than the true payout is closer to 7 or 8-1 and not the 10 or 11-1 that the card will pay out. The reality is that with substantial line movement the player actually enjoys a positive theoretical advantage. Not unlike a card counter in 21.

The job of the manager, as any manager with a responsibility to his employer, is to allow the vast majority of players to wager -- even when they may be getting value. Where the manager must draw the line is when someone (and despite Haney's assertion that the state wins so much money that we should look the other way) is just an advantage player and nothing else.

Haney asserts that if he discovers an advantage than bookmakers should do nothing -- hardly the way any business is run. I can assure you that if Haney were an illegal bookmaker he would not allow customers to gain upwards of a 20 percent advantage on him.

Parlay cards, despite their hold percentage, have always been difficult for bookmakers. The reason is professional players, looking to exploit the line movement, sneak in plays late at nite --turn two or three parlay cards in at a time at different windows and multiple locations -- send women and retired people in as their agents.

It is a constant struggle for bookmakers when it comes to dealing with professional players.

The managers are just simply doing their job.

I would love for Haney to run a book sometime and I think his story would change drastically.

R Walker
retired

(Suggest removal) 10/2/08 at 9:35 p.m.

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