User profile: rafael

California made its decision on HSR technology back in November of 2008: steel wheels on steel rails, off-the-shelf lightweight but non-compliant rolling stock, 220mph top speed, 3.5% maximum gradient, 25kV AC overhead catenaries.

If Nevada wants to connect to the California network by selecting 100% compatible technology and planning a relatively cheap connector in the High Desert, great. Direct service from Las Vegas to both LA/Anaheim and San Francisco then boils down to trackage rights and timetable integration, with service Sacramento and San Diego possible down the road. Forget that Victorville isn't a viable destination for Las Vegas residents. Instead, focus on connecting that city to the entire California HSR network without any need for transfers. If that means getting DX to adjust its plans, so be it.

Note that the LA-San Diego segment of the California HSR system will almost certainly use the CA-57/CA-60/I-10 freeway medians for part of its route. That means there won't even be a right of way for anything else west of either Colton or Ontario.

If Nevada wants to spend yet another decade "evaluating" alternative technologies that it cannot afford and that neither California nor the federal government nor private investors will fund, any line that gets built will go no farther than the metropolis of Primm. The Silver State would be cutting off its nose to spite its face.

Maglev is NOT the only way to achieve direct service to Anaheim. Also, steel wheels trains can EASILY negotiate the gradient in Cajon Pass, it's a heavy freight rail corridor for goodness' sake. It's just that connecting via Cajon would be a lot more expensive and could only happen 5-10 years later than doing so in the High Desert.

Victorville is the western end of *phase 1* of DesertXPress. The original idea for phase 2 was an extension through Cajon Pass to LA/Anaheim, but it was never more than very vaguely defined.

Now, the most likely concept for phase 2 is a connector to the California HSR starter line, either via a greenfield right of way between Victorville and Palmdale or preferably, one along the existing SR-58 corridor between Barstow and Mojave.

Provided DX choose rolling stock, electrification and signaling/train control systems that are compatible with California HSR - something that federal loan guarantees should require - that would permit *direct* service from Las Vegas to LA, Anaheim, the Central Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area around 2020 and to Sacramento and San Diego a few years later. If the technology is compatible, all DX would need are trackage rights.

Granted, no-one has committed to building a connector or to 100% compatible technology yet, but that is precisely what the city of Las Vegas, Clark county and the state of Nevada - not to mention Californians - should be demanding. Design an integrated HSR network, not isolated rail lines.

There isn't going to be any right of way for maglev west of Colton/Ontario, nor should Nevadans expect California's congressional delegation to support an application for federal funding to bring this fundamentally incompatible technology across the state line.

@ surmoka -

in the specific case of Las Vegas to California, steel wheels has one very distinct advantage: there is at least an *opportunity* to build it such that it will get you where you want to go, i.e. LA, Anaheim, SF Bay Area, Sacramento and San Diego.

Maglev will get you from Las Vegas to Primm at 300mph instead of 220mph. Huzzah!

When are you going to understand that this decision isn't going to be based on the merits of one technology over another? You can rail (sic) against California all you want, but in that state the *political* reality is that maglev is deader than a dead dodo. It just isn't going to happen there.

Betamax was better than VHS, too. It didn't matter.

@ Surmoka -

WEAK! I'm saying *Nevada* isn't going to change California's mind. There as a window of opportunity and for better or worse, Nevada simply missed it.

@ Robert_R_Gibbons -

"16,000 people per hour sounds great, but can that be sustained?"

I was referring to the ultimate capacity of the rails in nominal operations. If the infrastructure and trains are properly maintained and traffic generated by multiple operators properly managed (i.e. there are integrated time tables), it's entirely possible to safely operate 15 trains per hour each way whenever there is sufficient passenger demand. Depending on car design and configuration, an HSR train will offer anywhere from 250 to 1200 seats, with around 500 typical.

If the rails are dedicated to HSR traffic end-to-end, even higher throughput is possible. JR actually operates as many as 24 trains per hour on some sections of the shinkansen network during peak times. Some of those trains offer over 1500 seats. Running that many trains leaves very little slack, so their drivers are given incentives to zealously stick to their schedules. It's normal for trains to complete 500-mile journeys within 30 seconds(!) of their nominal arrival time.

The bigger issue is whether stations and connecting transit/transportation can match the capacity of the long-distance rail system, even if that is only utilized during peak periods. In the case of Las Vegas-California, it's not unreasonable to assume that Friday nights inbound and Sunday evening/Monday early mornings outbound will be peak periods, as will the start and end days of major conventions.

Regardless of technology, Las Vegas might need to beef up local transit - including privately operated coach/shuttle services - to move many thousands of passengers and their bags between the station and hotels in the city. After all, the point is to encourage more visitors to come, not just for those coming anyhow to switch from air/auto to trains.

Note that freeways and airports aren't fully utilized at all times, either. Even when the number of vehicles moving through does saturate them, they're not always the largest ones nor is every available seat utilized. Similarly, not every TGV train SNCF runs on its Paris-Lyon trunk line is a 16-car Duplex consist.