Comments by user: judgesmales
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Schwartz writes: "The state's Welfare and Supportive Services Division, which gives out Medicaid, food stamps and welfare, had 1,247 workers approved for the upcoming two years, the same number it had this year."
"Gives out" Medicaid, etc.? No, it ADMINISTERS those programs. That's the problem with welfare. Everyone think it's just "given out," like those dollars must have come out of Obama's "stash," right?
Could it be that Restrepo's clients no longer want his services because he's a lousy economist who wrote uniformly bullish analyses, telling those clients what they wanted to hear, instead of the truth that they needed to hear?
A lot of those companies were probably caught flat-footed when the crisis hit, likely because Restrepo's invariably sunny predictions led them to that stance.
Most of these local "crystal ball" happy-talk types have yet to be correct about any prediction or trend. But that doesn't stop the local media from continuing to quote them, regardless of how discredited or compromised they are. Maybe this Restrepo episide will make the Sun look elsewhere for "expert" economic analysis, though I doubt it will.
Restrepo is just another pumper who thinks that if you keep lying and telling people the economy is in recovery, it might trigger an actual recovery. Because his livelihood depends on it, his default position is to be rah-rah about the local economy. He's no different from Sunshine and Lollipops Reza, only with a fancy title.
Of course, they're too dumb to figure out that the loss of easy real estate equity withdrawals and massive consumer credit contraction (12-percent unemployment, too) have made anything resembling "recovery" impossible. That's the easiest prediction to make, and these clowns can't even get that right.
Dennis Smith has been discredited as a reliable source of the truth regarding the local real estate market, and his predictions and forecasts have been consistently wrong to the optimistic side. Hard to believe that the forecasts of someone who makes their living off the real estate market would always miss to the sunny side, ain't it Buck?
This story is a classic case of arm-waving, trying to distract you from the bad news in hopes that you won't find it. Instead of the GLVAR-approved red herring about cash buyers, here's the real news, buried in the ninth and 13th paragraphs:
"The median price of homes sold in January was $125,000, a 5.3 percent decrease from the $132,000 price in December and down 7.4 percent from January 2010."
(and)
"The 22,010 single-family homes on the market is up 1.6 percent from December and up 11.5 percent (from) January 2010."
Did you get that? Purchase prices dropped 5.3 from a month ago and 7.4 percent from this time last year. While inventory is up 1.6 percent month over month and a whopping 11.5 percent year over year.
Looks like the bottom-callers were wrong again. A price drop of 5.3 percent in one month is a DISASTER. There's the news: the housing double-dip (a long single dip, really).
Now, take a look at today's GLVAR press release and you'll see why Buck and every other local housing stenographer wrote about "cash buyers." It's because that's what the GLVAR wanted them to write about.
Click the following link, folks, and see where your news is coming from: a trade association whose goals have nothing to do with revealing the truth about the home-buying market in Las Vegas:
http://lasvegasrealtor.com/snr/article/4...
Hey, Buck, you're busted. Stop getting "spun" by the your sources.
Who says it's a "cash-grab," as the headline states? Whose opinion is that? Since this is presented as a news story, how about The Sun keep its prejudicial opinions to itself and let the readers decide if it's a "cash-grab."
This was a good story written by Las Vegas Weekly. Well done.
Before I moved here, I got long-hauled through the tunnel once by a Whittlesea Blue driver. I threatened to report him and began dialing the posted phone number while still in the cap. He knocked the fare back down, out of his own pocket I presume.
After that, I always said, "Take Swenson" and you should have heard the drivers grumble. At least it made drivers angry enough that they shut up.
Wargo's attempted mea culpa here is appreciated, but he gives Smith, Murphy, Bottfeld and their fellow travelers a convenient escape hatch.
Sure, those who "predict" are bound to be wrong much of the time. But these "predictors," whom the Sun has been quoting for many years, are presented as real estate "experts" who have their finger on the pulse of the local market.
If that's the case, they'd better get a new finger and a new "Crystal Ball," and most certainly Wargo had better get some more credible sources.
Anyone who was dumb enough (or compromised enough) to deny the LV real estate bubble, as Bottfeld repeatedly did in various forums, does not deserve to be presented as a just-the-facts "expert." He is merely a pro-industry shill, spouting trade-association talking points.
And now we come to the crux of the problem. All of these "experts" make their living -- in one way or another, somewhere up and down the chain -- from a healthy or booming real estate market.
Not only were their predictions consistently inaccurate, but they missed to the optimistic side almost 100 percent of the time, which is statistically improbable. It is a clear indication that their predictions and observations were (and continue to be) the rough equivalent of a car salesman saying, "What's it going to take for me to sell you that car today?"
How about getting your information from people who don't have a vested interest in the market, aside from possibly being a homeowner themselves?
Wargo apparently isn't savvy enough to make the distinction, or he doesn't particularly care, and now he's letting his resident "experts" and their crazy "predictions" off the hook. Oh-oh.
So I guess we can all look forward to more stories quoting compromised, industry "experts" such as Larry Murphy, Dennis Smith and Steve Bottfeld?
I'll save your readers the trouble and quote them already: "We've hit bottom. Prices are going to go up from here. You don't want to miss the coming bounce in home values. Better buy today. It's always a good time to buy a house."
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The Sun's math is wrong. On the current bill, the items in the right-hand column add up to: 100.10, not $101.10. The correct figure should be $100.10. The individual line items are correct, but they don't add up correctly on the bottom line.
I also think there's a math goof on the proposed bill, but I'm still checking it. By doing all the calculations, I keep coming up with $111.93, not $111.77. I'll get back to you later.
Either way, good story, Sun. Good useful information, even if the math is shaky. Will the Sun check their math?