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brian1959

At this moment, no one has any National Democratic delegates from Nevada. These delegates will be allocated in April (after Super Tuesday) by Nevada’s State Democratic Convention.

Clinton currently has a 55 delegate lead over Obama. Her lead comes from the delegates she won in the primaries and caucuses so far and from the super delegates that have pledged to support her. The lead also takes into account the delegates won by Obama and the super delegates that have pledged to support him.

Obama may be able to out pace Clinton in future super delegate commitments, but future super delegate pledges will depend greatly on who does well in the future primaries.

Obama will most likely win in South Carolina and Clinton will most likely win the Florida beauty contest.

Though Obama may do very well on Super Tuesday, the way many of these primaries are set up only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary. This is the case in California, New York & New Jersey for example. Many of these states have a large Hispanic population and obviously a large number of women. So if the voting trends continue (Obama having an advantage among men, African Americans, independents and Republicans – Clinton having an advantage among women, Hispanics and registered Democrats) the odds are in Clinton’s favor to expand her delegate lead over Obama coming out of Super Tuesday.

It is strange to listen to the media and the Obama campaign speak about how the Nevada election was always Clinton's to loose. They site Clinton's lead from poll taken last fall when everyone assumed that her nomination was inevitable. However, after Clinton's loss to Obama in Iowa and the Culinary Union endorsement of Obama, the media, the Obama campaign, and the Clinton believed the Obama had the advantage in Nevada. This change was evident in the Nevada polls that came out after New Hampshire where Obama held a small lead.

This is a loss for Obama in a state were he thought he could win and campaigned vigorously for the victory. And a win for Clinton in a state where no one (Obama, Clinton, Edwards, the media) was sure who would win.

I find it funny that Senator Clinton is criticized for not making the case for her opponents to be President. She has been asked on several occasions if Senators Obama and Edwards are qualified to be President. It’s not her job to make the argument to the voters for her opponents. That responsibility falls on Senators Obama and Edwards – not on the Clinton campaign. When Senator Clinton talks about her qualifications to be President and the need to be ready day one, she is not diminishing her opponents nor is she using the scare tactics of President Bush. She is simply making the case for her candidacy; her opponents need to do the same for themselves.