Richard Brian

Supporters of Sen. Barack Obama are counted during Saturday’s Democratic caucus at Sheila Tarr Elementary School in Summerlin.

By David McGrath Schwartz

Mon, Jan 21, 2008 (2 a.m.)

Sen. Hillary Clinton took 51 percent of the delegates on Saturday to Sen. Barack Obama’s 45 percent. So why are people wondering who really won?

Obama’s camp successfully introduced the question late Saturday, using some caucus math to argue that the Illinois senator edged out Clinton for delegates to the national convention.

So who emerged from Nevada victorious?

Clinton gave a victory speech. Obama did not.

She gave the speech because the larger purpose of the caucus was for the candidates to test their strength with the people of Nevada. Clinton won that test, winning in Clark County by 10 percentage points. Obama did better in rural areas and in the north but couldn’t close the gap.

Obama is indeed in line to get 13 national delegates to Clinton’s 12. That’s because under the party’s math, rural areas have greater clout than urban areas when delegates are apportioned.

But even those calculations are murky. There are no guarantees that those delegate numbers will hold.

That’s because on Saturday, Nevadans chose delegates for their county conventions. Those delegates will meet next month to choose delegates to the party’s state convention. Those state delegates in turn will meet in May to choose delegates to the party’s national convention this summer.

The county delegates and the state delegates can change their support.

“Delegates are not bound, but they tend to be consistent” with whom they supported, said Jill Derby, the state Democratic Party chairwoman.

One other point: The early presidential caucuses and primaries are not important because of the number of national delegates heading to the nominating convention. If so, the small-population states at the front of the caucus and primary season — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — would not really count because their national delegate totals are small.

The point of those caucuses and primaries is to test to candidates’ appeal in those states, regardless of the national delegate math.