Jon Ralston is struck by caucus firsts, from the unprecedented Democratic voter turnout to Culinary’s drubbing by Clinton

Sun, Jan 20, 2008 (2 a.m.)

2008 Caucus Coverage

At the climax of an unprecedented week in Nevada politics, there were multiple firsts, some freighted with more significance than others:

The Democratic Party’s turnout exceeded what I thought were delusional predictions by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of 100,000 caucusgoers — a quarter of the Democratic electorate, more than 12 times the turnout of 2004, showed up.

The Culinary Union’s endorsement of Barack Obama proved to have marginal significance as Hillary Clinton, rolling to a statewide victory, crushed the Illinois senator in Culinary country of Southern Nevada by double digits — a result unthinkable by even the most seasoned observer. (Reid seemed stunned when I asked him about it as results came pouring in.)

The Hispanic vote, often derided and discounted, may have been decisive here, with Clinton reportedly garnering the majority of Latinos by a more than 2-1 margin a huge victory for Assemblyman Ruben Kihuen and others who escorted Clinton through neighborhoods and helped her divide the Culinary’s large Hispanic vote.

And then there was the scene of a former president on the Las Vegas Strip for a couple of days and on caucus day, shaking hands and having pictures taken with casino employees, many of them Culinary workers — Bill Clinton angling for votes, glad-handing in a casino, a scene that may never be repeated.

It should be noted that after all the Sturm und Drang about those casino caucuses, which Clinton pollster Mark Penn claimed Friday gave Obama a five-point advantage, the New York senator ran very strongly in those events. A sample: She was victorious at the Mirage, where her husband was politicking, at the Bellagio, where they stayed, and at New York-New York. She held Obama to a virtual tie at the Wynn.

And although turnout was huge across the state, it does not appear to have been as large at the casino precincts, either because the Culinary didn’t have enough time to organize or because the Clinton campaign divided and conquered so well or both.

When time has passed and more data are in and the definitive post-mortem of this caucus is written, my guess is, this will be a case of the Culinary coming into the race too late, making it vulnerable to a Clinton machine (constructed from the ground with an underrated grass-roots effort and from the top with those elected-official endorsements) that pulled out all the stops from that lawsuit to the entire family campaigning here to closing the deal on caucus day with its turnout operation and the former president’s hands-on efforts.

Even before the results started coming in, confident Clinton folks were predicting that the intense nastiness of the past week would be forgotten by today and pessimistic Obama folks were preparing for defeat. You almost could feel that the Culinary knew it could not short-circuit a Clinton machine with too many weapons, as epitomized by what union Secretary-Treasurer D. Taylor told the Los Angeles Times’ Mark Barabak in Saturday’s paper: “Whatever differences we have — and there are real differences — clearly the alternative of several more years of an administration like the Bush administration would be disastrous.”

That olive branch was in sharp contrast to the vengeful sword Taylor and others had brandished in the days since that lawsuit threatened to derail at-large precincts the Culinary hoped to dominate. From the moment the Culinary endorsed Obama, the campaign by the union to make it mean something and the jihad by the Clinton camp to undo it were two of the most vociferous and angry campaigns I have witnessed in 20 years covering Nevada politics.

Maybe Taylor is sincere that bridges burned in the past week can be rebuilt. Maybe County Commission Chairman Rory Reid, who was one of Saturday’s biggest winners, can help rebuild a party that should be energized by the turnout and the energy the early caucus generated. And maybe Reid the Elder, who brought the caucus here and who surely understood a revitalized party would help him in 2010, can salve the wounds inflicted by this campaign.

The challenge for the Democrats now is to rebuild the riven party before the general election. Despite all the firsts they accomplished Saturday, the Democrats would much rather achieve something that hasn’t happened since that man shaking hands Saturday morning in Las Vegas took Nevada in 1996.

Discussion: 12 comments so far…

By Jeffko

1/20/08 at 4:03 a.m.

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Hey -- Harry Reid !

I have spent a year of my life and oodles of my time trying to get people to get involved and pay attention to us.

You guys screwed up.

My Caucus was the worst organized debacle I have ever been involved in.

I first have to give up my candidate, John Edwards, because he did not stay viable. OK. My guy lost. My party rules said if you do not get enough votes you move to another candidate or you choose uncommited or you leave.

I joined Hillary Clinton's caucus.

Then I come home and see that Barack Obama, despite getting a substantially fewer amount of votes, has more delegates than my new choice, Hillary Clinton.

I lost three times today, and you wasted my time.

You guys have now joined the US Supreme Court in the annals of US Political History in stealing the election from the person who won it. Hillary Clinton won, but Barack Obama becomes our Presidential nominee if we are the last criteria used to choose the Democratic nominee.

Shame, shame, shame on all of you.

God Bless all of you.
By aw

1/20/08 at 8:35 a.m.

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people longing for Bill Clinton to be president again need to think twice --

Bill Clinton presided over a terrific economy not the least of which was because of the advent of the internet and that impact on the US ecomony

That's not going to happen again -

Also: if will never be before 9/11 again -- the world is different.

You can say this is a generational divide, you can say it is a racial divide - I submit it is an intellectual divide

Team Clinton thinks they can twist and change the argument to suit them wherever they are an who ever the audience is - and sad to say there is some evidence that is working

I am over 50 and a woman and I support Barack Obama. Partially because I want my children to grow in a less divisive world where truth matters. Where ideas matter. Where we can travel abroad and be proud to be American again. Where we have a president who has sound judgement and gets it right the first time.

Where we know our country can do better than having presidents from only two families for decades.

That's my dream
By teacher

1/20/08 at 9:28 a.m.

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I'm with ya, AW. (divorced mother, nearly 50)

I want a person who tells it like it is, who's smart, who gets it, and who is about us instead of about him- or herself.

I want a candidate who can appeal to some Republicans, too, because he is a person of integrity who is well informed, intelligent, says what he means, and means what he says.

I want voters who inform themselves well beyond what I saw at the caucus.

I want a Democratic party that is not an elephant in an ass's clothing.

And I want to see a woman president. But not this woman.

These are the things I want. When more in the U.S. want them, it will be about us instead of about "I", about a growing pool of Obama supporters who have been won over. (I thought earlier that he wasn't electable. I've changed my mind. In a general election, I question whether HC would be.)

Please read what Obama is saying, has said, is doing, and has done. The more people inform themselves of this man's understanding of the issues and sincerity in doing something to make this a better country for more people (not just maneuvering for election, as seems to be HC's main objective in her stances), the more he'll win over. And then there really would be a chance for change from the direction this country has been moving in for the past few decades - including when BC was President.
By Tomato32

1/20/08 at 11:42 a.m.

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For many years Nevada was known as "Mississippi West" because of the treatment of blacks here. Most of that has gone--at least openly. But underlying racism remains among many, especially old-timers. That may well have made the difference between Obama winning or losing the vote. So the results of the Nevada Democratic caucuses are very suspect in my opinion, and augur little about future contests across the country.
By Darryl

1/20/08 at 1:46 p.m.

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Tomato32,

I think you are right. But now, nationwide, this is being seen as being about race because of the polarity of the African American vote in this caucus (+80%). If they had split their vote up by the same margin as that of women or that of Latinos, it would not have looked so blatant. They, and the Culinary Union, did not do Obama any favors.

Add to that the fact and perception created by the actions and words in the African American community by people like Oprah, Michelle Obama, and the church the Obamas' attend have made it seem as though racism by their community is acceptable, while racism by other ethnic groups isn't. That too will hurt Obama in the primary. Now, because of their polarizing actions, the primary will be over after Super Tuesday. Obama will become a footnote for at least 8 more years.
By kennekra

1/20/08 at 3:26 p.m.

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I agree that Culinary/Unite Here's top-down decision to endorse a candidate did not take into account the desires of their own membership. Endorsing a candidate so close to the caucus in the hope of endorsing the winner was dangerous, and I think that played out here.

No doubt Harry Reid looks like a genius today. For a state with no tradition we certainly had a record turnout.
By Darryl

1/20/08 at 3:37 p.m.

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I was stationed in Fallon Nevada when I was in the Navy and I loved it. The thing that gets me in the coverage of the caucus is that people in the rest of the country have a wrong impression of the state.

What I remember so clearly was the fierce independence of the people there. And to think that what we saw was a bunch of union bosses (probably implants) acting as though they owned the votes.
By T_Michael

1/20/08 at 8:47 p.m.

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I was very excited to caucus. I live and vote in Henderson Nevada. Wow, what a mess. No one knew what the heck they were doing. After an hour and half I walked out with all the others, about 200.

Our time, voices, hopes and goals achieved nothing, the whole thing seemed very much like our current governing body, running the public in circles to manipulate and control us. I have no idea if or how we could have gotten any deligates. My suggestion, lets return to the general election.
By NVMojo

1/20/08 at 9:43 p.m.

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Why didn't we all just let Harry Reid declare Nevada for Hillary and not spend all of this time and money and effort on what was essentially a caucus for the Reid family for the Clinton family?

Why wasn't anyone required to show ID? Was that to get the illegal alien vote that is so strong on the Strip in places like the Sands, the Venetian, etc?
By michaelhcox

1/21/08 at 9:33 a.m.

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Where are you getting your 100,000 Democrat caucus goers from? There were 10,561 according to http://www.nvdems08.com/. Compare that to the 44,315 GOP caucus goers according to http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/results.
By kennekra

1/21/08 at 11:40 a.m.

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michaelhcox, the numbers on that Website are delegate counts. Democrats don't release the actual vote counts in their caucuses, due to the first and second rounds of alignment and the math involved.

Republicans do a straight vote count.

It was similar to Iowa.
By Larry

1/21/08 at 12:15 p.m.

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I don't believe Harry Reid is a genius but is quite the opposite. The caucus operation in Nye County (Pahrump) was the biggest joke I have ever seen. Republicans were told to be at the school at 8:30am, the doors would be closed at 9:00am. At 8:30am I believe, did not count, there were at least 500 people to get in, the temperature was 26 degrees, door opened (1/2 of 1 side-by-side door) at 9:10am. At this time the line went out of the parking lot and wandered up and down Blagg Road. We did not get inside until after 10:00am only to get into another line for precinct 9 - another 1/2 hour. Finally got to the classroom for Precinct caucus. Voted and left at 10:45am. Caucus was suppossed to end at 11:00am, upon arriving outside to leave line was still in the parking lot with still a couple hundred people and more arriving as we left. Give me back my old primary, this was a total snafu. I was wondering how many illegals voted in the at large caucus places in Vegas??? Larry