Clinton’s surprise win sets up Nevada scorcher

Jan. 19 caucus is suddenly wide open after upset in New Hampshire

Tiffany Brown

In the Clinton campaign’s Las Vegas office on Tuesday night, press assistant Katie Hurlbut and others celebrate the results in New Hampshire’s primary.

By J. Patrick Coolican

Wed, Jan 9, 2008 (2 a.m.)

Nashua, N.H. — Sen. Hillary Clinton’s victory over Sen. Barack Obama in the New Hampshire Democratic primary means the next contest, the Jan. 19 Nevada caucus, will be an intense battleground in the fight for the Democratic nomination, as each tries to capture momentum going into South Carolina and then the 22 states with primaries Feb. 5.

Clinton and Obama are now engaged in a fight for the soul of the Democratic Party, not so much over issues, on which they are much in agreement, but over political style and vision.

Clinton promises to be a bare-knuckle fighter who will deliver victory against the Republican attack machine in November, while Obama seeks to attract new and disaffected voters and build a progressive governing coalition.

The slim victory, which served as an elegant coda to the mutual love affair between the Clintons and New Hampshire that began with Bill Clinton’s surprise second-place showing in 1992, changed the Democratic race overnight.

Some weekend polls had indicated a double-digit lead for Obama, and the Clinton campaign was rife with backbiting and second-guessing.

But famously independent New Hampshire voters rejected the polls, as well as the dominant media narrative that had Obama, playing to big crowds, winning in a runaway.

Nevada is now a toss-up, with each campaign able to point to advantages.

The Obama campaign hopes that when the 60,000-member Culinary Union announces its endorsement today, it will give the nod to the first-term senator from Illinois.

In his concession speech, Obama said his message would now be heard by Americans in the South and West, including textile workers in South Carolina and, in a reference to Culinary workers, dishwashers in Las Vegas.

The Culinary is the state’s largest and most politically active union and has a vaunted political operation with a reputation for delivering victory to its favorite candidates. Paired with the Obama field organization, which has attracted thousands of volunteers, the Culinary endorsement would give Obama a credible claim to advantage.

The caucus, which requires participants to show up at their precinct meeting at 11:30 a.m. on Jan. 19, puts a premium on organization and trained volunteers. It’s a contest perfect for Culinary’s style of door-to-door, member-to-member organization.

Obama’s support among black voters in South Carolina skyrocketed in the past week, according to recent polls. Those voters could make up as much as 20 percent of Nevada caucusgoers, so if the pattern from South Carolina holds in Nevada, that would be another Obama advantage.

But Clinton’s New Hampshire victory has created a new national story, that of Clinton breaking out of her carapace of caution and finding her voice.

At a debate Saturday night, she was full of directed and apparently effective anger at what she perceived to be the free ride given her chief opponents and their relatively thin political resumes.

She tossed most of her stump speech in the trash and took questions, any and all, from appreciative audiences. She made the case that although her opponents, and Obama especially, are skilled orators, she’s the one who gets things done.

She convinced New Hampshire Democrats, and she’ll take the message to Nevada.

The Clinton team can point to other advantages.

She’s won the endorsement of almost the entire Democratic establishment, including members of the Clark County Commission and other local officials and a bevy of state legislators.

The Clinton campaign has been building a massive organization of its own, including paid staff, thousands of volunteers and offices and phone banks across the state.

Also, according to exit polls, Obama did best with college-educated voters, young voters and voters earning more than $50,000 per year.

Nevada has a smaller percentage of voters who fit those profiles than New Hampshire, which is filled with well-educated, relatively affluent liberals.

Political analysts have used a shorthand to describe this campaign from the beginning: Obama is the “wine-track” candidate, meaning the candidate of wine-drinkers, while Clinton is more the “beer-track” candidate, meaning the candidate of beer drinkers. The beer-track candidates have a more successful history in Democratic politics.

One unknown: the role of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who finished a distant third in New Hampshire. Edwards now has significant staff in Nevada, as well as the endorsement of the 12,500-member carpenters union. His voters would tend to fit the demographic and socioeconomic profile of Clinton’s, but his message of change overlaps with Obama’s.

Clinton and Obama will likely send top staff and flood the state with TV and radio ads, and both candidates could be in the state this week.

The Obama campaign has sent its seasoned Iowa pros to Nevada and increased its TV ad spending.

In his concession speech, which seemed to have been written for a presumed victory, Obama congratulated Clinton before hitting his themes of hope and renewal.

He returned again and again to the refrain “Yes, we can,” which was a subtle response to a recent Clinton statement warning not to give Americans “false hopes.”

“It was the call of a King who took us to the mountaintop. Yes, we can,” he said, referring to the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.

“We are one people, we are one nation, and together we will begin the next great chapter in the American story with three words that will ring from coast to coast, from sea to shining sea: Yes, we can.”

But it was Clinton’s night.

“I come tonight with a very full heart. I want especially to thank New Hampshire. Over the last week I listened to you and, in the process, I found my own voice. I felt like we all spoke from our hearts and I am so gratified that you responded. Now together, let’s give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.

“We’re going to take what we learned here in New Hampshire and we’re going to rally on and make our case. We are in it for the long ride,” she told a wildly cheering crowd. “So tomorrow we’re going to get up, roll up our sleeves and keep going.”

Discussion: 23 comments so far…

By cooday

1/10/08 at 7:46 p.m.

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Democrats are courting all Independent voters with some of our favorite videos

Children make Johnny Depp laugh (Youtube Video)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mv-pbwUc...

Last Democrat President gave Americans a budget surplus!

All moms deserve a surplus too! So we are courting all moms with this video ...

A mom's favorite phases set to music (Yahoo Video)
http://video.yahoo.com/video/play?vid=11...
By Maite

1/11/08 at 7:46 a.m.

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Clinton has taken $567,950 from lobbyists. Obama has taken $76,859. Who do you think will stand with the unions, Clinton, beholden to corporations, or Obama, who has walked picket lines with union members?
By efranklin

1/11/08 at 8:07 a.m.

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Clinton is the "beer drinkers" candidate? You have got to be kidding! Net worth of the candidates:

Clinton: $17 to $54 million
Obama: $1 to 2 million

Who is the "wine drinkers" candidate again? While the Clintons have enjoyed a nice 16 year reign of power, Billary are sipping some pretty expensive beverages these days. Let us end the Bush/Clinton empire once and for all.
By NewYorker

1/11/08 at 1:12 p.m.

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Obama will be the next president. He is the change we need in this country. Our Healthcare system is broken, our energy policy is broken, our educational System is broken, our Economy is headed into a tail spin and, china is rapidly becoming the most powerful country in the world. Climate change and the environment are putting this country on a course for disaster. The next 3 to 5 years is terrifying. We need a new direction, we need new energy, we need to take strong action, Obama offers us that. Hilary will maintain the status quo, even while the world around us is collapsing.
By onari

1/11/08 at 2:13 p.m.

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Like was done in 2000, you guys went over the head of Al Gore, smart experienced and hard working man to elect inexperienced GW and 7yrs later ended up with 2 wars with no end in sight and trillions of dollars in deficit....make no mistake, if you guys repeat same stunt of 2000, this country will be doomed.
By lori11

1/11/08 at 2:29 p.m.

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Nevada voters are plenty intelligent. I get tired of the chararacterizing of "typical" voters for each canidate. I am young, have a master's degree and a professional career...and I'm supporting Hillary because she is the best one for the job.
By rose

1/11/08 at 8:54 p.m.

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If Hillary and those other cowardly Democrats hadn't voted for the war,4000 families would not have lost their son,daughter,brother,sister,wife husband,and thousands of soldiers would not be in the hospital,some without their limbs!!

Those billions of dollars that are spent on the war each month,could have been to fix schools,help people with their insurance,help kids with their college education and to help people hold on to their home.
By larigraham

1/11/08 at 9:29 p.m.

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Clinton and Richardson in 2008. The unbeatable team!
By rose

1/11/08 at 10:57 p.m.

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Onari said-Like was done in 2000, you guys went over the head of Al Gore, smart experienced and hard working man to elect inexperienced GW and 7yrs later ended up with 2 wars with no end in sight and trillions of dollars in deficit....make no mistake, if you guys repeat same stunt of 2000, this country will be doomed.(quote)

The Supreme Court made George W.Bush,Jr.our president.Were you out of the country when that happened?
By rose

1/12/08 at 9 a.m.

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Jfnikki,If you have a daughter,I hope she doesn't work as an intern in the whitehouse.
By rose

1/12/08 at 9:14 a.m.

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To All Hillary voters:

If Hillary wins,and you have a daughter,I hope she does NOT work as an intern in the whitehouse.
By rose

1/12/08 at 5:41 p.m.

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She(Hillary) raised eyebrows in New Hampshire when she credited President Lyndon Baines Johnson, not the assassinated John F. Kennedy or King, for passing civil rights legislation.

Hillary said--Sen. Obama used President John F. Kennedy and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. to criticize me,” she said. “Basically compared himself to two of our greatest heroes. He basically said that President Kennedy and Dr. King had made great speeches and that speeches were important. Well, no one denies that. But if all there is (is) a speech, then it doesn’t change anything.”
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Hillary should hang her head in shame!!
By OldTimeDemocrat

1/13/08 at 4:25 p.m.

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"Obama will be the next president. He is the change we need in this country. Our Healthcare system is broken, our energy policy is broken, our educational System is broken, our Economy is headed into a tail spin and, china is rapidly becoming the most powerful country in the world. Climate change and the environment are putting this country on a course for disaster. The next 3 to 5 years is terrifying. We need a new direction, we need new energy, we need to take strong action, Obama offers us that."

Sorry New Yorker, Obama ain't got the chops to take on the corporations, insurance companies and free traders. He lacks the technical knowledge and experience to LEAD the charge. He will have to rely on other people to do the thinking and strategizing for him (like George H. W. Bush does.)

Frankly, it's not clear who Obama's 'other people' are, i.e. his Leo, Toby and Josh. Nor is it clear who his influential big contributors are, other than Oprah and David Geffen. (They're good at making money for themselves, but not good at waging class warfare.)

Sadly, the guy with the knowledge and experience necessary to make war on the corporations, insurance companies and free traders is John Edwards, and he's out of the mix.

So at best we will end up with another ineffectual warm and fuzzy Democrat president like Jimmy Carter or a class traitor like Bill Clinton.
By pattydarling

1/14/08 at 2:55 a.m.

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Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. is running for president. I have read his book "Dreams of My Father". This is a book written by him. In this book he gives us insight into his life so far.

In "Dreams of My Father", Barack Obama says his biological father, Barack Hussein Obama, was raised as a Muslim but lived as an Aetheist. Obama goes on to say that his mother and father divorced when he was two and his mother went on to marry his stepfather, Lolo Sotero. Both of them them became students in the Muslim East-West Center. At age 10, Obama was sent to live with his grandparents.

In his book Obama goes on to say that in college he "lived a party lifestyle of drugs and alcohol." He states that he used "pot, alcohol and cocaine" to get through his difficult life.

In 1993, at age 32, Barack Hussein Obama became a Christian.

What a load of crap !!!!!!!!!

This man was raised as a Muslim during his formidable years. We all know that our raising runs deep within us. What happened during the first 10 years of our lives is what makes us who we are. Barack Hussein Obama is a Muslim.....he only joined a Christian church when he decided to go into politics and after the first US war in Iraq. He didn't want to be associated with Iraq's Sadaam Hussein, so poof ....all of a sudden he is a Christian.

Barack Obama voted against the Flag Desecration Act. He stated that this Act was a "violation of freedom of expression". Obama states that the email going around showing him not saluting the American Flag is not factual....he says that he does salute the American Flag ....sometimes. Yep, just what we need...a president who doesn't think it is important to salute the flag of the country he governs. I am sure that all of our veterans who have fought for this flag will understand that one.

The National Rifle Association calls Obama "a true enemy of gun owners' rights". Obama is against the death penalty.

Let's face it.....we cannot afford to have another Republican president ....and we sure as hell can't afford a president who does not respect us enough to salute our flag.........

So.....the way I see it,the only choice we have is Hillary Clinton. We don't have to like her to know that she will always support our flag. And she is not a johnny come lately for healthcare. She has always supported national healthcare.....this is healthcare for everyone in the United States. And we all know that thanks to her husband and his enemies, Hillary has no secrets. We know everything about her.

In California, Nevada, Arizona and Oregon, we can make a difference to the entire country. We have enough electoral votes to remind the country that we are here and we are a power to be reckoned with. It is time everyone stood up and took notice of what we have to offer.

I urge you to Vote Hillary Clinton for President.
By lvdream

1/14/08 at 9:10 a.m.

(Removed by the site staff)
By OurCountry

1/14/08 at 4:25 p.m.

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Obama has a history of making bad choices....check out his background and judge him only on "his" actions. The country must see through the hype.....hope will not change our country....

The first candidate who brought us health care and fiscal responsibility....the one man who has the courage, fire, vision, and the character to bring OUR COUNTRY back to the people.

John Edwards for President.......feel the momentum