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As part of the lower-the-expectations game, sprinkled with a why-we-will-challenge-the-results-if-we-lose seasoning, comes Clinton pollster Mark Penn with another of his now-legendary memos:
To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: January 18, 2008
Regarding: Will the polls be predictive in Nevada?
The public polls are in and they show Hillary Clinton with a lead in the Nevada caucuses. The Review Journal poll done by Mason Dixon shows Hillary ahead 9 points by 41 to 32, and the Zogby poll puts it at 5 points.
Unlike the tumultuous few days after Iowa when the media was wall-to-wall with coverage of Obama’s Iowa performance and key moments occurred, absent anything dramatic on tonight’s news we are heading into a very normal end of the campaign in Nevada.
So the question is – will these polls be reflective of the result? Turnout is uncertain since the last election saw only 9000 voters come out in 2004. This time the state is in the limelight, and 1800 people were in the debate audience alone, so we may get a significant turnout that could make the results broadly reflective of the polls.
But while union endorsements are usually helpful to candidates they have never come with their own self-contained precincts before. Nine caucus sites have been set up essentially for members of the Culinary union, who have endorsed Senator Obama. Because of a unique weighting system., these sites will count disproportionately in awarding delegates. This should give Obama a clear 5-point advantage starting out.
Can we make that up? Senator Obama's National Field Director said, "The Nevada election is going to come down to: Whoever gets the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, more than likely, is going to win Nevada."
On the other hand, we have a great organization, huge crowds and a great candidate delivering strong message. So stay tuned.
But if the polls turn out differently from the result, there may be an easy explanation for it this time.
DID HE Really say the Unions Cheated us..
Jon Ralston.. your bias is showing.
BIG FAT CLINTON LIE # 986,786 (are they compulsive or what?)
The at-large sites are open to anyone who works within 2.5 miles of them
These two sites have been monitoring the New Hampshire recount closely, almost hour for hour, and are well-regarded. Every Diebold memory card from the electronic machines is MISSING. 8-inch slits were discovered in re-delivered ballot boxes, and then kept unlocked and OUTSIDE the vault overnight. HUNDREDS of votes were mis-counted, and there are HUGE discrepancies so far from the original count.
THIS ELECTION IS BEING FIXED. WAKE UP.
http://www.bradblog.com/
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/
Thats the Clinton Line. if we win, we were the underdog and th people spoke!
If we lose, we were cheated!
What a bunch of cry babies.
I cant stand them anymore.
I am going with Obama!
ABC= Anybody But Clinton. If her lips are moving she's lying!
Mark Penn always seems to come out with these ignorant memos. Pride goes before a fall!
Hillary is going to win!
Now take all your free proxies and multiple ID's and call it a night.
I hope Hillary wins as well (not just in Nevada because this is just a caucus) but if she does not win on February 5th then we should back whomever is the candidate. STOP HATING.
Hillary's Nevada team of supporters concocted a system to insure her victory back when she was the inevitable winner and on her way to "coronation." But she lost Iowa. (And claimed that caucuses were unfair, she never should have gone there, it was too hard, college students were against her, people were cheating.) Then she goes to New Hampshire, nearly sheds a tear and presto! pulls a magic bunny out of her ----- and wins! Now she's in Nevada and soon South Carolina. For the Carolinians she claims Barack Obama is the racist one, while sending out her squadron of lieutenants to fling tawdry, race-baiting mud. In Nevada, she loses Culinary's endorsement (it just as easily could have gone to John Edwards) and cries foul! Her pals connected with the Teachers' union decide to file a bogus lawsuit at the last minute, after being intimately involved in making the rules. Bill whines that it's all so unfair. Both claim ignorance of the lawsuit. They claim people are being bullied, but none of their tales pan out.
So on the eve of the caucus, they claim we're gonna lose because the game we created is rigged against us!
No more Clintons.
Happy 10th Anniversary Lewinsky Scandal Day! Everybody wear a blue dress!
Why is it that so many high level Democratic politicians have given their backing to Obama, and not just any politicians, but ones with remarkable records.
Why is it that John Kerry, Senior Sen. Patrick Leahy, and even Ted Sorenson, President Kennedy's Special Counsel & Adviser, and primary speech writer-- the same guy who wrote "Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country", all support and have endorsed Obama? Why is it that Al Gore is rumored to soon support Obama as well.
Do you think these seasoned political vets, with numerous years of experience under their belt, and with reputations to protect, would endorse Obama if they did not have good reason? Do you think they would just blindly choose Obama, without seriously scrutinizing his past and his record?
If you do, then you really need to turn off CNN, tune-out the negative trash the Clinton's have poured on us these last weeks, and start reading more.
And why did these same figures not support Hillary. If Hillary is such a great candidate, such a great leader, if she is so about change, if she has so much experience, then why wouldn't they endorse her. Hasn't she been a US senator longer, and worked closely for longer with many of these people? It just doesn't make sense.
If you want to know why, then why not watch them explain in their own words. I think your eyes will be opened up -- http://youtube.com/watch?v=ReDCmk2c2g8
BUSH/CLINTON/BUSH/.....OBAMA!
SI SE PUEDE!
YES WE CAN!
TOMORROW IS OUR INDEPENDENCE DAY NEVADA, INDEPENDENCE FROM HILLARY!
Heh. Reminds me of that famous scene in "Citizen Kane" where candidate/publisher Kane holds up two different front pages for his post-election edition:
"KANE WINS"
"FRAUD AT POLLS"