Week 17 NFL game of the week, picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Jan. 3, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The biggest upset of week 17 may have already occurred.

Nothing that takes place on the field Sunday could go down as more unexpected than the NFC North winding up as the only division that comes down to a single game. Seven weeks into the season, the Green Bay Packers were the NFL’s biggest favorite in the divisional future odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

The Packers were listed at a staggering minus-6000 (risking $60 to win $1) to win a fifth straight NFC North title. But they’ve since faltered and now host a de facto NFC North Championship Game with the Minnesota Vikings as 3.5-point favorites on Sunday Night Football.

It’s the Sun handicapping contest's game of the week, making it a required bet in the competition asking three sports writers to place three wagers weekly off of the South Point betting board. Full picks are listed at the bottom of the page.

Minnesota needs to pull one minor upset to prevail in a division it’s never been favored to win at any point of the season. The Vikings were one of the more popular bets in the preseason futures market, but they were still 5-to-1 to win the NFC North as opposed to the Packers’ minus-300 as the season began.

Even when Minnesota took a brief lead in the standings after week 10 at 7-2 staight-up to Green Bay’s 6-3, it was still behind at Even money while the Packers were minus-120. The next week was supposed to cease the Vikings’ rise for once and for all with the Packers reasserting their control via a 30-13 victory as a 1-point underdog in Minnesota.

But that matchup wasn’t quite the annihilation the score made it seem. The Vikings were down 6 points going into the fourth quarter before allowing a touchdown drive and losing a fumble, the game’s lone turnover, to open the fourth quarter.

Minnesota came out of the contest ahead on the statistics sheet, outgaining Green Bay by nearly a full yard per play.

Summer optimism that saw the Vikings drop from 50-to-1 to 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl largely revolved on bettors calling for the return of running back Adrian Peterson and the progression of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to pay off. But few gamblers expected the offense to perform more efficiently than the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers’ attack.

That’s what’s happened, though Green Bay set a low bar. Minnesota has gained 5.3 yards per play on the year, edging Green Bay’s 5.1.

A rash of receiver troubles haunted the Packers early in the year — they lost No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson for the season while No. 2 Randall Cobb and No. 3 Davante Adams battled nagging injuries — but now their offensive line has emerged as the biggest problem. They’ve given up more sacks than any team in the second half of the season, which goes a long way in explaining how a 6-0 straight-up, 5-1 against the spread start plummeted to current records of 10-5 and 9-6, respectively.

Rodgers suffered eight sacks alone in last week’s 38-8 loss at Arizona, where Green Bay was a 6-point underdog. The biggest loss of the reigning MVP’s career came right before Bridgewater and the Vikings drowned the Giants 49-17 as 6-point favorites, and the two results together rearranged sports books’ betting boards.

Green Bay sat as a minus-700 favorite to win the NFC North before week 16 and a 5.5-point favorite over Minnesota on the early week 17 line. Now it’s minus-175 on the money line against Minnesota and reopened laying only 3 points before some shops added an extra half-point.

Those could be interpreted as over-adjustments considering not much has changed from the teams’ first meeting. Minnesota has responded to go 3-2 straight-up, 4-1 against the spread to get its overall records to 10-5 and 12-3, respectively, but the Vikings also suffered a blowout loss to a superior team.

The Seahawks smashed them 38-7 as 2.5-point favorites in week 13. Green Bay has gone 3-2 straight-up and against the spread since playing Minnesota.

The Packers are currently 20-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, ahead of the Vikings’ 30-to-1. They’re both far behind the Seahawks, Cardinals and Panthers, which handled the Packers 37-29 in week 9.

The NFC North rivals’ statuses as bit players in the NFC playoffs take some of the luster off of the matchup. They’re also both guaranteed to get into the postseason, so the only real stakes are a home game in the wild-card round.

That would be noting extraordinary for Green Bay. But it would be quite the achievement for Minnesota considering the odds calculated to less than a 10 percent probability two months ago.

Check below for full picks in week 17 of the handicapping contest. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 55-39-2 (4-2 last week)

Bills plus-2.5 vs. Jets

Saints plus-5.5 at Falcons

Packers minus-3.5 vs. Vikings

Broncos minus-9 vs. Chargers

Bears pick’em vs. Lions

Seahawks plus-6.5 at Cardinals

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 45-47-4 (4-2 last week)

Jets minus-3 at Bills

Patriots minus-9.5 at Dolphins

Bears pick'em vs. Lions

Raiders plus-7 at Chiefs

Packers minus-3.5 vs. Vikings

Seahawks plus-6.5 at Cardinals

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 43-49-4 (2-4 last week)

Bills plus-2.5 vs. Jets

Texans minus-6.5 vs. Jaguars

Raiders plus-7 at Chiefs

Vikings plus-3.5 at Packers

Rams minus-3 at 49ers

Seahawks plus-6.5 at Cardinals

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.