Take 5: UNLV is San Jose State’s last chance for league win this season

By Taylor Bern

Friday, March 6, 2015 | 2 a.m.

UNLV has enough of its own problems that it shouldn’t be at risk of looking past Saturday’s regular-season finale, but if there’s a team to overlook it’s obviously this weekend’s opponent, San Jose State.

The Spartans (2-27, 0-17) are 1-34 in Mountain West play since joining the league two years ago and this season it’s gotten so bad that they have yet to defeat a Division I opponent. UNLV (16-14, 7-10) tips off Saturday at 7 p.m. in The Event Center on ESPN3.

The Rebels will be without Pat McCaw, who suffered a concussion in the second half of Wednesday’s loss to San Diego State. His timetable for a possible return is uncertain, and the same goes for fellow freshman guards Rashad Vaughn (partially torn meniscus) and Dantley Walker (sprained MCL).

Even with only six healthy scholarship players the Rebels figure to be decent betting favorites because the Spartans are dreadful, losing league games this season by an average of 19.8 points per game.

There have been a few somewhat close calls, though, so here’s a look at San Jose State’s best chances (so far) of getting a Mountain West win this season:

2/7 vs. UNR, 60-57

San Jose State coach Dave Wojcik called a timeout with 1:25 remaining and his team trailing by three. He didn’t know it at the time but this would be SJSU’s best chance to date to win a league game this year.

Out of the timeout, SJSU missed a shot, grabbed the rebound and then missed two free throws. The Spartans even got help from UNR’s AJ West, who missed two free throws of his own on the Wolf Pack’s ensuing possession, but Darryl Gaynor II’s turnover after that effectively ended the Spartans’ realistic chances.

UNR shot 2-for-8 at the free-throw line in the final 1:05 but SJSU nearly matched the ineptitude at 2-for-6, watching its shot at a victory bounce off the rim.

1/3 vs. Wyoming, 64-59

If this was one of the games that Wyoming forward Larry Nance missed it very well could have been San Jose State’s first Division I victory since Feb. 18, 2014, when the Spartans won their first, and so far only, game in the Mountain West against UNR.

Even with Nance this was about as close as it’s gotten this season. San Jose State led by eight at halftime and Wyoming didn’t take back the lead until under the 7-minute mark, never leading by more than the final margin of five the rest of the way.

Kenpom.com has a win probability graph for every Division I game, and in league play the closest it has had San Jose State to winning was just under the 9-minute mark in this game. The probability? A mere 37.5 percent.

Most of San Jose State’s games never break the 25-percent plateau. Wyoming hit 8-of-12 free throws in the final two minutes, not great but enough to hold off the 19.5-point underdog.

2/28 at UNR, 62-51

Since the Wolf Pack is 10th in the standings it’s no surprise that both of its meetings with San Jose State show up on this list.

The Spartans led by one at halftime and trailed by only three with four minutes remaining when everything came apart. UNR attempted an absurd 47 free throws, making 34, and it also dominated the glass.

San Jose State’s best path to victory is a ton of 3-pointers and in Reno it made only nine of 30 attempts. Even with above average long-distance shooting it’s tough for the Spartans to stay in games so when they don’t get that it’s all but over.

1/28 vs. Air Force, 66-52

It shows just how far away SJSU really is from winning a league game when this makes the list primarily because it was only a three-possession game in the final two minutes.

The Spartans have actually held their own in a lot of first halves this season (more on that below) but usually the game being close at the break is enough to get the opponent to wake up and start really playing. The Falcons have had a lot of their own struggles and didn’t do anything amazing, other than maybe hitting 21-of-25 free throws, in this game, it was just a balanced, efficient effort for a relatively easy win.

2/21 vs. San Diego State, 74-56

There were many games that could have been tossed in to the last spot but the San Diego State matchup won for the weirdness of the whole thing.

San Diego State is great on defense and mediocre at best on offense, so when the Aztecs are shooting well and scoring points it’s usually a blowout. Four times in league play the Aztecs have scored at least 35 points in the first half and in the first three of those their leads were 23, 22 and 11, respectively.

The fourth time they trailed by one, 36-35, at San Jose State.

Now, no person or computer really expected SJSU to hold on — SDSU’s win probability on Kenpom never dropped below 95 percent — but it was probably the most bizarre situation the Spartans have been in this season.

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.