Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Analysis:

Bern’s-Eye View: Forecasting Mountain West Basketball Week 12

UNLV vs. San Diego State

Lenny Ignelzi / AP

San Diego State coach Steve Fisher has a word with a referee during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against UNLV on Saturday, Jan. 17, 2015, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

The Rebel Room

Another shot at Reno

Las Vegas Sun sports writers Ray Brewer and Taylor Bern get into the Rebels' chance for vengeance at UNR after the Rebels managed to finally win a close game. Also, Brewer breaks down some of UNLV football's commits.

The only Mountain West team that’s ranked in any poll — Colorado State is No. 24 in the USA Today Coaches Poll — is an underdog tonight, if that gives you any idea about the balance of this league.

Whether you want to call it balanced, bland or just plain bad, it’s clear the league is as unpredictable as expected. Last weekend, two games went to overtime, and two of the teams involved in those games (Wyoming and UNLV) had overtime games the previous week.

Three teams are receiving votes in the Associated Press poll, and all three are in action tonight. The Rams are getting points at Boise State, Wyoming is a small road favorite at Utah State and San Diego State is laying a big home number against Fresno State.

If Wyoming loses, we’ll have a two- or three-way tie at the top, and if the Cowboys win, they could start to create some real separation. Hopefully the answers to what’s ahead for the league are contained in the picks below.

Note: UNLV picks will appear in the live blog on the day of games.

TODAY

Fresno State (plus-14) at San Diego State

6 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• It’s a weird situation to have the team that won the first meeting getting 14 points in the rematch when they have identical league records, yet here we are. Too many points to give, though this is a line so far out of whack that it feels like someone knows something I don’t.

Pick: Fresno State

Wyoming (minus-1.5) at Utah State

6 p.m., Root Sports/Mountain West Network

• Games like this will go a long way in determining whether Wyoming can win the Mountain West. Since losing to San Diego State, the Cowboys have gone to a combined four overtimes in two victories, and now they’re on the road against a team we saw up close in Las Vegas this weekend.

All of that playing with fire figures to get them burned again sooner or later.

Pick: Utah State

Colorado State (plus-2) at Boise State

8 p.m., ESPNU

• During its four-game wining streak, the Rams have had two blowouts and two big leads evaporate into close games. If they get up big again tonight, I predict the lead is going to stick.

Pick: Colorado State

WEDNESDAY

Air Force (minus-9) at San Jose State

7 p.m., Mountain West Network

• When the league’s two worst teams get together no one wins, unless you bet against the Spartans.

Pick: Air Force

Last week: 3-4

Season: 78-67-1

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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