Las Vegas Sun

April 25, 2024

Analysis:

Bern’s-Eye View: Forecasting Mountain West Basketball Week 15

UNLV loses to Colorado State

AP / Erin Hull

Colorado State’s J.J. Avila shoots against UNLV’s Christian Wood during an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb. 7, 2015, at Moby Arena in Fort Collins, Colo.

The Rebel Room

The Tark episode

Las Vegas Sun sports editor Ray Brewer shares his memories of following Jerry Tarkanian's UNLV teams as a kid in Las Vegas and then Brewer and beat writer Taylor Bern get into the latest issues with this year's team and what to expect in Wednesday's game vs. Boise State.

Dave Rice doesn’t want to view the end of the season this way, but UNLV will probably play the largest role in the conference title race of any team not actually in it. In most cases, you would call that team a potential spoiler.

After the shifting throughout the conference slate we’re right back where everyone predicted, with San Diego State controlling its destiny. The Aztecs are a full game up on Wyoming for first place and two of their four remaining games are against the league’s two worst teams: UNR and San Jose State. The other two are against tonight’s foes at the Thomas & Mack Center: Boise State and UNLV.

As I wrote yesterday, starting tonight the Rebels still have home games against the top three teams in the current league standings. Tonight it’s Boise State, then back-to-back against Wyoming (Feb. 28) and SDSU (March 4).

How the Rebels play in those three games could end up deciding the conference title race. As unlikely as it is, there’s a scenario where UNLV could go 3-0 in those games and open up the door for Colorado State, currently two games back, to sneak back to the top.

For that to work, though, the Rams have to handle their own business in a tough road game tonight at Fresno State. That leads off today’s picks:

Note: UNLV picks will appear in the live blog on the day of games.

TODAY

Colorado State (minus-4.5) at Fresno State

7 p.m., ESPN3

• In Mountain West play, Colorado State is 2-4 ATS on the road, with one victory by a half point at Air Force and the other against San Jose State. Can’t trust that against a team that has home victories against San Diego State, Boise State and a triple overtime loss to Wyoming.

Pick: Fresno State

Utah State (minus-13) at San Jose State

7 p.m., Root Sports/Mountain West Network

• With three straight ATS wins, the Spartans are slowly starting to even out their record. However, today’s the one-year anniversary of their last victory against a Division I opponent and I’m hoping they celebrate with a classic San Jose State performance.

Pick: Utah State

Last week: 3-6

Season: 96-81-2

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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