Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Just wait until next year: Eyes will be on Nevada

2016 GOP caucus candidates

NEVADANS KNOW BEST
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Nevada historically is a bellwether for the nation in presidential elections. Since 1908, the state has voted for every successful presidential candidate except one — Gerald Ford in 1976.

NEVADANS KNOW BEST

Nevada historically is a bellwether for the nation in presidential elections. Since 1908, the state has voted for every successful presidential candidate except one — Gerald Ford in 1976.

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Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney pauses as supporters applaud during his victory speech at the Nevada Republican caucus Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012, at the Red Rock Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas.

It won’t be the state’s first time on the national stage.

In 2008, for instance, both Nevada Democrats and Republicans succeeded in moving up their primaries, making Nevada one of just four states to conduct early presidential primary contests. But a wide-open presidential race, a competitive U.S. Senate race and Nevada’s status as a crucial swing state all should align to make next year’s elections a battle of epic proportions in Nevada.

Insiders say it’s good for the state, as it will bring in more national candidates and force them to take positions on issues that matter to Nevada and the West.

Here’s a closer look at the factors at play:

The Obama machine

During the 2012 presidential election, Democrats’ organizing power in Nevada was unparalleled. Sen. Harry Reid’s disciplined get-out-the-vote apparatus was boosted by President Barack Obama’s data-driven voter targeting. Obama carried the state with 52 percent of the vote.

But some say the machine fell apart during November’s midterm elections, when Republicans crushed Democrats on the Nevada ballot.

Can Democrats rebound by Election Day 2016? Democratic operatives say November’s results are more indicative of a national red wave and ineffective candidates than their internal organization. They say they can make Nevada a competitive state both for Reid, who will seek re-election for the sixth time, and for the Democratic presidential nominee.

Voter registration

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Sheldon and Miriam Adelson attends a special "sundown" caucus at the Adelson Educational Campus that capped off the Nevada GOP presidential caucuses on Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012.

Politics is a math game, and in 2016, Democrats will have to contend with a savvier Republican Party that’s rapidly catching up in voter registration. Nevada’s official Republican Party is in disarray, but big-name GOP players have branched off to raise money and organize on their own. Gov. Brian Sandoval, for example, helped fund Engage Nevada, a nonprofit formed in May 2013 that registered 30,000 voters, many of them new conservatives who cast ballots in 2014.

As of January, Democrats had about 95,000 more registered voters than Republicans in the state. Republicans hope to narrow that number to 60,000 to stay competitive in the next election. They plan to focus on courting Hispanic voters.

Engage Nevada was launched by Republican operative Chris Carr, who is moving to Washington, D.C., to run the Republican National Committee’s political operation for 2016.

“If we become a one-party state, then that means we’re not relevant,” Carr said. “And that’s not good for anybody.”

Swing state

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From left, friends Mick Cacucciolo, Chris Leggio and Mitch Cummins cheer and chant "Mitt" during the Nevada Republican caucus Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012, at the Red Rock Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas.

There are three main reasons Nevada’s position as a swing state is stronger than ever: Both parties’ position on the primary calendar, the state’s purple electorate and a contested presidential race with no incumbent.

Nevada’s Democratic and Republican caucuses both are guaranteed to be among the first four presidential contests in the nation, shortly after Iowa and New Hampshire. Playing well in Nevada could help a presidential candidate pull out of a crowded field and gain momentum.

That means Nevada can expect high-profile visits, lots of advertising and an influx of politicos fighting for their candidate.

Much like in 2012, winning Nevada’s Hispanic population will be a key strategy for any campaign. Expect Republicans to try to bolster their standing with Hispanics by touting Sandoval, the first Hispanic to win statewide election in Nevada.

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