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March 28, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 17 winners against the spread

2015 NFL Week 15

Scott Eklund / AP

Umpire Barry Anderson (20) is knocked down as Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel (2) gets a pass off and the Seattle Seahawks’ Bobby Wagner (54) puts on pressure in the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2015, in Seattle.

2015 NFL Week 16

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Charlie Whitehurst (6) hands the ball to running back Dan Herron (36) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 27, 2015, in Miami Gardens, Fla.  (AP Photo/Joe Skipper) Launch slideshow »

Week 17: Vikings at Packers

Which side would you take in Vikings at Packers? (Poll consensus year to date: 10-4-2)
Packers minus-3 — 50.6%
Vikings plus-3 — 49.4%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

There’s a reason that CG Technologies releases point spreads on every NFL game except for Week 17 contests as part of its full-season lines revealed every spring.

Not only is the final week of the regular season the trickiest to forecast, but it’s also the toughest to bet.

Fewer than half of the teams in the league are playing for anything. Even some of the matchups with actual stakes are minimized this year with all but one playoff spot locked up, leaving positioning as the only prize.

Bettors must weigh more variables than normal to wager successfully on Week 17, but Talking Points is here to help. The blog looks to sign off on picking every regular season game against the spread with success.

The results are positive to this point as even a 7-9 record last week only pulled down the season total to 125-107-8

Check below for Week 17 analysis and picks, separated as always into three separate confidence categories with corresponding records.

Plays (30-25-2)

Seattle Seahawks plus-6.5 at Arizona Cardinals No need to overreact to either the Cardinals pummeling the flawed Packers 38-8 as 6-point favorites last week or the Seahawks seeing everything conspire against them to lose 23-17 as 11.5-point favorites against the Rams. The Seahawks haven’t come into a game as this big of an underdog since Week 7 in 2012.

Buffalo Bills plus-3 vs. New York Jets The Bills were a 1.5-point favorite on the early line last week, and there’s no way a single victory over the Patriots should precipitate more than a 4-point swing. The Jets are 2-2-1 against the spread laying points on the road this season, but none of those teams were as strong as the Bills.

Chicago Bears minus-1 vs. Detroit Lions These teams are as evenly matched as any two opponents in the league, as seen when their first meeting went to overtime before the Lions pulled out a 37-34 victory but failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites. The home team should lay a field goal in any matchup.

Leans (45-33-4)

Denver Broncos minus-8.5 vs. San Diego Chargers San Diego remains one of the most beaten-up teams in the league, while Denver is determined to secure a first-round bye with a victory. The Broncos gave 6 points in a 17-3 win at San Diego four weeks ago, meaning this line should be closer to 12 with the basic adjustment for home-field advantage.

New Orleans Saints plus-4.5 at Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan is already having his worst season in six years and will now play in the finale with an injured hip suffered in last week’s win over Carolina. Drew Brees is also banged-up with a foot injury, but has shown an ability to play through pain in leading the Saints to average more than 6 yards per play over the last month.

Tennessee Titans plus-6 at Indianapolis Colts Opponents have now outgained the Colts in six straight games since they lost quarterback Andrew Luck for the year to a lacerated kidney. The problem will only get worse with the desperation signings of Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley to potentially play quarterback.

San Francisco 49ers plus-3.5 vs. St. Louis Rams 49ers have played better in their last two games than the losses both straight-up and against the spread indicate, having posted a net positive in yardage. The Rams were fortunate to eke out a victory in Seattle, using a plus-3 turnover margin to overcome getting outgained by more than 1 yard per play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-10.5 at Carolina Panthers Not the best spot for the Panthers as teams are traditionally deflated after losing their first game of the year late in the season. They also may not take the Buccaneers, which have lost three in a row straight-up and against the spread, seriously even though they’re fourth in the NFL with 0.8 yard per play differential.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-9.5 at Cleveland Browns In almost any other year, the Browns would rank as the worst defense in the league but the Saints’ historical ineptitude has kept them second-to-last by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. That’s a concern that can’t be overstated going up against an angry Steelers team that rates first in offensive DVOA.

Guesses (47-45-2)

Kansas City Chiefs minus-7 vs. Oakland Raiders The Chiefs continue to be undervalued considering they’re a top-five team in DVOA, including second in the weighted version of the ratings that places an emphasis on recent performance. Kansas City’s secondary, led by likely Comeback Player of the Year Eric Berry and likely Defensive Rookie of the Year Marcus Peters, tormented Derek Carr in a 34-20 Chiefs victory as 3-point favorites four weeks ago.

New York Giants minus-3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Giants’ minus-17 point differential is much better than the Eagles’ minus-58. And ownership will at least allow their coach to finish off the season.

Houston Texans minus-5.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars A scheduling quirk has allowed the Jaguars to go seven straight weeks without encountering as much as a decent defense. The adjustment won’t be kind against the Texans, which are slowing opponents as well as anyone by climbing to fourth in the NFL in surrendering only 5.1 yards per play.

Green Bay Packers minus-3 vs. Minnesota Vikings Aaron Rodgers had only lost by double digits six times since his rookie year before last week’s blowout at Arizona. The Packers went 4-1-1 against the spread a week after those defeats.

Baltimore Ravens plus-9.5 at Cincinnati Bengals Ravens’ backups thrust into starting roles all over the field seem to be taking to the idea that they’re competing for roles on next year’s team. Usual concern over motivation with a team playing for nothing is minimized even more given the divisional rivalry.

New England Patriots minus-10 at Miami Dolphins Line is undeniably inflated — Patriots were only an 8-point favorite at home against the Dolphins in week 9 — but it’s hard to expect anything other than a supreme effort from New England with the AFC’s top seed at risk. Miami has failed to cover in six straight games.

Washington Redskins plus-3.5 at Dallas Cowboys Washington has nothing to play for and, at a minimum, will rest any starter with lingering injuries. But still can’t entertain laying more than a field goal with moribund Dallas, which has the second-worst against the spread record in the NFL at 4-10-1.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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