Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Analysis:

Bern’s-Eye View: Mountain West Basketball Picks Week 7

Eric Musselman

John Byrne, University of Nevada via AP

UNR coach Eric Musselman directs his players during his first NCAA college basketball practice in Reno. Musselman learned about running a Division I program from his father and during stops at two schools as an assistant.

Much like the Mountain West itself, the nonconference season was unkind to this picks column.

I’m limping into league play at 12 games under .500, which means I’m the equivalent of a one-bid league. Only a months-long heater is going to help, just like the teams looking to make their case for an at-large selection.

The good news (I hope) is that familiarity with the competition is going to improve my prognosticating. And if it doesn’t, well, at least I’ll be here for you to laugh at.

Tonight’s slate features four intraconference games plus Boise State as a big home favorite, so let’s get to it:

Lines are the best available at the time of publication on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

UNR (plus-8) at New Mexico

6 p.m., Root Sports

• This line stinks to me so I’m probably on the wrong side, but New Mexico (7-6) is in a bad way right now coming off a four-game losing streak, while UNR (8-4) could be the league’s biggest surprise. First-year Wolf Pack coach Eric Musselman once coached Lobos coach Craig Neal in 1993 for the CBA’s Rapid City Thrillers, and Musselman is going to teach his former pupil a thing or two in the Pit.

Pick: UNR

UC Davis (plus-16.5) at Boise State

6 p.m., MWN

• Boise State (8-4) is only 1-3 ATS at home, but the Broncos are on a five-game winning streak while UC Davis (4-7) has lost five straight, including an overtime loss on Monday at Seattle. I’m betting the Aggies won’t have the legs required to cover against the rested Broncos.

Pick: Boise State

Wyoming (plus-12) at San Diego State

7 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• The Aztecs (7-6) are 8-10 over the last three years when favored by double digits in Mountain West games. Especially with this year’s team, which ranks last in the league in points per game and field-goal percentage, I need a good reason to lay that kind of number and I don’t see it tonight against a Wyoming (7-6) team that can keep things somewhat close with 3-pointers (36.5 percent) and free throws (75.6 percent).

Pick: Wyoming

Utah State (minus-7) at San Jose State

7 p.m., MWN

• As a general rule, I’m not going to back road favorites of more than three or four points in league games. For now, games involving San Jose State (5-7) will be the only exception, but I’m not sure that will hold as the Spartans might actually be good enough to cover some spreads this year. I’ll do it just based on San Jose State’s history and the fact that Utah State (8-3) doesn’t seem to be getting any attention despite the fact that they might still be a top four team.

Pick: Utah State

Fresno State (plus-7.5) at UNLV

8 p.m., ESPNU

• The Bulldogs (9-4) and Rebels (9-4) play at a nearly identical pace, but Fresno State doesn’t turn the ball over nearly as much (or create nearly as many turnovers) and coach Rodney Terry’s team is good at grabbing extra possessions with offensive rebounds. I think that will be enough to keep this one within the number, if not walk out with an outright victory.

Pick: Fresno State

Last week: 0-3

Season: 43-55-3

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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