Week 16 NFL game of the week, picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Dec. 27, 2015 | 2 a.m.

For the first time in four years, betting odds give an NFL team better than a 50 percent chance to finish the regular season undefeated.

The Carolina Panthers are in position with two games left to join the 2007 New England Patriots as the only teams to ever go 16-0. As a 7-point favorite at Atlanta this week and a projected 10-point favorite hosting Tampa Bay next week, Carolina has roughly a 63 percent chance at the elusive accomplishment.

The 2011 Green Bay Packers were the last team to come this close, starting the year 13-0 with three games as at least a touchdown favorite at the end of the schedule. The Kansas City Chiefs stunned the Packers 19-13 as 11-point underdogs in their next contest.

But neither the 2011 Packers nor the 2007 Patriots share much else in common with the 2015 Panthers as they were both preseason Super Bowl favorites. Carolina wasn’t as much as in the conversation in the days before the season kicked off, stuck behind 23 teams on the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook betting board at 60-to-1 including its week 16 opponent.

Atlanta was also favored over Carolina in today’s game by CG Technology’s full season lines. Much has changed going into the Sun handicapping contest’s game of the week.

The competition requires three sports writers to make six wagers off of the South Point betting board including one from the game of the week. Full picks are available at the bottom of the page.

It didn’t change immediately upon the first sign of the Panthers' success, however, as the Falcons remained the favorite to win the NFC South after both teams were among the record six teams to start the year 5-0. Atlanta went on to lose seven of its next eight, failing to cover in all of them, including a 38-0 obliteration at Carolina as an 8.5-point underdog two weeks ago.

After starting the season 3-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the Falcons regressed to 1-4 during the stretch. The Panthers are obviously perfect in all seven of their games fitting the criteria.

Success or failure in games that tight is often chalked up to luck, but there’s a little more to it — especially in this case. Coaching, for one, plays an important role.

Since switching to a mathematically correct, aggressive approach during the 2013 season, Carolina coach Ron Rivera is 15-2 in games decided by less than a touchdown. New Atlanta coach Dan Quinn’s tendency to struggle with the most basic strategic concepts makes it no surprise his team has frequently fallen on the wrong side of close games.

Atlanta now must win its two remaining contests and have both Minnesota and Seattle go winless to reach the postseason, but the downfall isn’t all on Quinn. Eight-year veteran Matt Ryan is mired in an awful slump, throwing 12 touchdowns to 11 interceptions since the start of the losing streak and posting the second-lowest passer rating of his career.

A defense that was playing slightly above league average has also tailed off, surrendering a league-worst 8.6 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks.

On the other side, Carolina’s defense is second to only Denver’s in giving up 4.8 yards per play with both linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman playing themselves in Defensive Player of the Year votes. Quarterback Cam Newton is now the MVP favorite at minus-500 (risking $5 to win $1) after an inhuman six-week stretch where he’s thrown for 18 touchdowns to one interception and 7.7 yards per attempt.

And yet Carolina is still not the Super Bowl favorite. At 4-to-1, the Panthers trail the Patriots at 7-to-2.

Carolina would come in as an underdog to either New England or Seattle on a neutral field. The odds indicate Carolina simply hasn’t played as perfectly as its record.

Their plus-171 point differential is far behind the 2007 Patriots, which were at plus-291 at this point of the season, and even the 2011 Packers, which were plus-175 despite their defeat. The Pythagorean formula for that scoring margin equals out to an expected record of slightly less than 11-3, and the Panthers have done it against a schedule Football Outsiders rates as the third easiest in the NFL.

Of course, that’s all semantics if the Panthers live up to the lines and win their next two games. A nearly unprecedented undefeated season would speak for itself.

Check below for full picks for week 16 in the handicapping contest. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 51-37-2 (4-2 last week)

Panthers vs. Falcons over 47.5

Jaguars plus-3.5 at Saints

Jets plus-3 vs. Patriots

Cardinals minus-4.5 vs. Packers

Rams plus-13.5 at Seahawks

Bengals plus-3.5 at Broncos

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 41-45-4 (2-4 last week)

Bears plus-3.5 at Buccaneers

Panthers minus-6.5 at Falcons

Browns plus-11 at Chiefs

Jets plus-3 vs. Patriots

Steelers minus-10 at Ravens

Bengals plus-3.5 at Broncos

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 41-45-4 (5-1 last week)

Buccaneers minus-3.5 vs. Bears

Falcons plus-6.5 vs. Panthers

Patriots minus-3 at Jets

Packers plus-4.5 at Cardinals

Rams plus-13.5 at Seahawks

Broncos minus-3.5 vs. Bengals

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.