Bern’s-Eye View: Resetting the Mountain West at midseason

By Taylor Bern

Saturday, Dec. 26, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The Mountain West’s nonconference season has basically been the college basketball equivalent of finding a big lump of coal in your stocking. You could always hope it turns into something better, but it probably won’t.

Outside of one team separating itself and another team winning the league tournament, it’s hard to make a case for the Mountain West as anything more than a one-bid league this year. I’ll still guess that it gets two in, but I don’t know how.

With that in mind, I wanted to reset things and project where these teams will finish now that we’ve seen nearly half of their games. The league race is wide open, but despite both that and the bad losses suffered I didn’t change things at the top:

Team (Bern’s preseason rank)

1. San Diego State (1)

This isn’t based on results so far, because the Aztecs (7-6) own two of the league’s worst losses with an outdoor brick fest against San Diego and a home loss to Grand Canyon. What SDSU does have is the best coach and the best defense in the league, and since doubt is in ample supply across the league I’ll bet on those factors to win out until proven otherwise.

2. UNLV (3)

It’s all sitting there for the Rebels (9-4), who haven’t won at least a share of a regular season title since the Mountain West’s debut in 1999-00. If coach Dave Rice is going to snap the streak the time is now, because he might not get another shot.

If I were posting these as betting futures, UNLV would be the favorite. But just like I’ll lean towards SDSU until the Aztecs are out of it, I want to see the Rebels win it before I’ll truly believe they can do it, even when it’s clear that they own the league’s best roster.

3. Fresno State (5)

It feels like the Bulldogs (8-4) have been the dark horse pick to jump up the standings each of the last three seasons. I think this is when it finally happens.

4. Boise State (2)

Many people pegged the Broncos (8-4) as preseason favorites, and they’re certainly not out of it. In fact, I’m probably doing exactly what they would want since Boise State tends to play better when operating a little more under the radar or as the underdog.

If Boise State goes on a big run I certainly wouldn’t be surprised, but I’m not picking it either.

5. Utah State (4)

I honestly have no idea how good (or not) the Aggies (8-3) are. David Collette’s departure two days before the season changed everything I liked about their offense, and with some seemingly more complete teams elsewhere I’m in wait and see mode on coach Tim Duryea’s first season.

6. UNR (8)

A.J. West was UNR’s most productive player, and from the outside it appeared that first-year coach Eric Musselman sent him packing because he felt that that production wasn’t worth West’s notoriously difficult personality. It’s a stern move from a guy trying to implement a certain type of culture, and even though I liked watching West play I think it not only makes sense from Musselman’s perspective but will also lead to better results this year for the Wolf Pack (8-4).

7. New Mexico (7)

If I were writing this a week ago, New Mexico (7-6) would have been as high as fourth. Then the Lobos blew a 16-point lead at home to Rice and went winless at the Diamondhead Classic in Hawaii.

New Mexico couldn’t guard the three-point line to save its life the past few days, and the Lobos will get rained on plenty when they get to league play, too.

8. Wyoming (6)

The Cowboys (7-6) are the best bad team in the league, and the reason is simple: Josh Adams is damn fun to watch. His usage rate is top five in the country, according to kenpom.com, which means you see plenty of him in every game, too.

The 6-foot-2 senior guard is averaging 26.9 points per game while shooting 42.1 percent on 3s, and oh yeah he’s still one of the best dunkers in the country. Wyoming doesn’t have anything in the realm of a quality victory, but Adams makes them fun to watch regardless.

9. Colorado State (9)

New Mexico is the most recent team to take a sudden, and severe, tumble in the standings but Colorado State (7-5) was the first. The Rams started the year 5-0 with good victories at Northern Iowa and against Oakland, and then they lost five of six to some middling and downright bad opposition.

10. Air Force (10)

Air Force (8-4) is currently slotted 216th on kenpom.com, and with the exception of an overtime home victory against New Mexico State, the Falcons have defeated every team ranked worse than them and lost to every team ranked better. That feels right for this team and I’d guess it pretty much holds the rest of the season.

11. San Jose State (11)

The Spartans (5-7) already have two more Division I victories than all of last season. So that’s something.

All-Mountain West First Team

Marvelle Harris, G, Fresno State

• The Preseason Player of the Year is averaging 18.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and a league-best 2.43 assist-to-turnover ratio. Can’t ask for much more.

Josh Adams, G, Wyoming

• The only thing I’ve never liked about Adams’ game is how much he throws his head to draw fouls, but considering he’s top five in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes it’s hard to argue that it’s not a smart tactic.

Pat McCaw, G, UNLV

• If the Rebels win the league, the Mountain West Player of the Year award will likely go to McCaw or, assuming he has a big surge in conference play, freshman Stephen Zimmerman Jr. McCaw is the Rebels’ best all-around player although it will be interesting to see how his scoring progresses after notching only five points in three of the previous five games.

Tim Williams, F, New Mexico

• If the Lobos are going to shake off this stretch and make any kind of run in the league, I think it’s going to be through Williams. He’s averaging 16.2 points per game on nearly 60 percent shooting.

James Webb III, F, Boise State

• No Mountain West player is averaging double-digit rebounds, but Webb leads the way at 8.5. So far he’s done a solid job building on last year’s breakout, though teammate Anthony Drmic could just as easily be in this spot.

Others considered (no order): Anthony Drmic, Boise State; Hayden Graham, Air Force; Marqueze Coleman, UNR; Elijah Brown, New Mexico

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.