Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Senate Showdown:

Polls strongly favor GOP takeover of Senate

Editor's note: This is part of a weekly series, Senate Showdown, in which the Las Vegas Sun politics team shares news, links and insights on Nevada Sen. Harry Reid and the 2014 battle for the U.S. Senate. Readers can also submit questions at [email protected] or via Twitter using the hashtag #AskAmber.

WASHINGTON — In just five weeks, Nevada Sen. Harry Reid will know if he will still run the U.S. Senate.

The campaign to control the Senate is the defining storyline of American politics in the Nov. 4 election, and Reid is one of the main characters.

Forecasts predict Republicans could have a slight majority in the Senate. An unpopular Democratic president and the first national election since the 2013 implementation of Obamacare helped create a tough environment for Senate Democrats up for reelection in red states.

If Republicans gain a net six seats, they would control both chambers of Congress for President Barack Obama's last two years in office. And Reid would lose control of the Senate after ascending to majority leader in 2007.

But even five weeks is a long time in politics.

Neither Reid nor Republican Nevada Sen. Dean Heller are up for re-election this year. Still, the Las Vegas Sun politics team will share links and insights on the Senate showdown leading up to the election.

Polls are strongly favoring a Republican Senate

First, the latest polls. Five weeks is a long time in politics because just about every week, political forecasters shift their predictions about what will happen in November. When it comes to control of the Senate, there's been a steady theme that Republicans are slightly favored to win the majority. This week, that trend is as strong as ever. FiveThirtyEight says the party has a 60 percent chance, The New York Times forecast says Republicans have 67 percent chance and The Washington Post predicts Republicans have a 76 percent chance to win the Senate. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza breaks down why this week's political climate seems to favor Republicans so strongly. And the LA Times seems much more optimistic Democrats still have a chance.

What does Nevada stand to lose in November?

Nevadans are watching the battle for the Senate from the sidelines because neither of the state's senators are up for re-election. But if Reid loses his powerful majority position in November, will the state lose out on perks like federal grants and the ability to continue blocking the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository? I take a look at that scenario in the most recent issue of The Sunday. Bonus in the story: What does a Senate majority leader actually do?

More gridlock no matter which party has the Senate

What would a Republican-controlled Congress look like? If Republicans take the Senate (possible) and keep the House of Representatives (very likely) in November, some in the party are hoping to use the chance to push conservative ideals into law.

Repealing Obama's 2010 health care reform law, known as Obamacare, would top that list. But the AP's Charles Babington says we can expect more gridlock, a stiff opposition from Senate Democrats and a few vetoes from the White House. Speaker of the House John Boehner, R-Ohio, seems a little more optimistic about what can get done in November.

What Harry Reid is reading

A key part of Democrats' plan to keep the Senate lies, ironically, with keeping a Democrat off the ballot. In Kansas, independent Greg Orman is surging in popularity and seems the best chance to beat incumbent Republican Pat Roberts in November. But if Orman wins, would he caucus with Senate Democrats like the chamber's other two independents or join Republicans? Orman told The Washington Post's Philip Rucker he'd support whichever party was in the majority. Yet another reason for Reid's political machine to double down in Kansas.

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