Bern’s-Eye View: Mountain West Best Bets Week 3

By Taylor Bern

Friday, Sept. 12, 2014 | 3:49 p.m.

First the bad news: The Mountain West game I felt the best about last week, the one multiple people informed me they followed in part because of I liked it so much, lost.

On the bright side, that’s the only game I missed, so confidence points aside, it was a really solid showing with plenty of luck along the way. At first glance, this week’s slate feels easier, which actually worries me a bit.

Hopefully I know just enough to know I don’t actually know anything and if I’m lucky again, we can keep this rolling:

Note: UNLV picks will appear in the live blog on the day of games.

SATURDAY

Boise State (minus-16) at Connecticut

9 a.m., ABC/ESPN2

• UConn is reeling after starting quarterback Casey Cochran retired from football this week because of his concussions. This game has serious blowout potential, but I’m not confident it’s going to get there.

Pick: Connecticut — Loss

Wyoming (plus-44) at No. 2 Oregon

11 a.m., Pac-12 Networks

• Last week’s Oregon comeback is a perfect example of why it’s so hard to handicap Ducks games. Michigan State was in control and then, seemingly instantly, Oregon flipped it on them and ran away. I’m taking the underdog with the hope that the Ducks tire themselves out or get too bored to win by 45.

Pick: Wyoming — Win

Air Force (minus-11 ½) at Georgia State

11 a.m., ESPN3

• I like the way the Falcons defense is playing so far. Not the stiffest competition but that doesn’t really change this week, so roll with the Falcons.

Pick: Air Force — Loss

UC Davis (plus-29) at Colorado State

Noon, Mountain West Network

• Despite their struggles at Boise State last week, I still like CSU to have a big season. Too many points though.

Pick: UC Davis — Win

Wake Forest (plus-15) at Utah State

4 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• I’ve said this on ESPN 1100 a couple of times, but it bears repeating: The Mountain West appears to be worse than we thought, and the collective "we" already thought it would be a pretty bad league. Now, looks can be deceiving in these early weeks so there’s time for certain teams to turn it around, but part of the reason for this feeling is that even the league’s perceived best team — Utah State — doesn’t look very good.

Pick: Wake Forest — Win

Nebraska (minus-12 ½) at Fresno State

7:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• Fresno State is example 1B of the theory tossed out above. We figured it would be a step back without Derek Carr but not a leap like this. Nebraska will be motivated to avoid another close victory, and this one could get out of hand.

Pick: Nebraska — Win

UNR (plus-18) at Arizona

8 p.m., Pac-12 Networks

• This is the most interesting Mountain West game on the slate. It will go a long way in determining just how good both these teams are (at least for me) considering that’s been difficult to nail down because of their competition. If Arizona gets out to a quick lead, the Wolf Pack are in trouble because they’ve been much better running the ball than passing. However, that rushing could help keep the Wildcats’ offense on the sidelines by eating up clock. I’m not too confident in this one, but I’ll take the points.

Pick: UNR — Win

Northern Iowa at Hawaii

9 p.m., Mountain West Network

• This is the only Mountain West game this season that I haven’t been able to find any kind of odds on. That’s unfortunate considering it involves my favorite team, UNI, but in a way that also helps us. I was probably going to pick the Panthers for the straight-up victory against an injured Rainbow Warriors squad anyway, so now we’ll just make that official and pretend the line is a pick.

Pick: Northern Iowa — Loss

Last week: 8-1

Season: 13-7

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.