Senate Showdown: Congress is back in session — kind of

By Amber Phillips

Monday, Sept. 8, 2014 | 7:33 a.m.

Editor's note: This is the second in our "Senate Showdown" series where we'll share news, links and insights on Nevada Sen. Harry Reid and the 2014 battle for the U.S. Senate.

In eight weeks, Nevada Sen. Harry Reid will know if he will still run the U.S. Senate.

The campaign to control the Senate is the defining storyline of American politics in the Nov. 4 election, and Reid is is one of the main characters.

Forecasts predict Republicans could have a slight majority in the Senate. An unpopular Democratic president and the first national election since the 2013 implementation of Obamacare helped create a tough environment for Senate Democrats up for reelection in red states.

If Republicans gain a net six seats in November, they would control both chambers of Congress for President Obama’s last two years in office. And Reid would lose control of the Senate since ascending to majority leader in 2007.

But eight weeks is a long time in politics.

Neither Reid nor Republican Nevada Sen. Dean Heller are up for re-election this year. But the Las Vegas Sun politics team will share links and insights on the Senate Showdown leading up to the election. Readers can also send in questions at [email protected] or on Twitter with #AskAmber.

Congress is back — kind of.

Lawmakers return to Washington, D.C., on Monday after a five-week break that shielded many of them from having to debate a series of international conflicts, writes Politico. Reid will be looking to block his vulnerable Senate Democrats from virtually any tough votes so they can get back home to campaign. Here’s my timeline of what to expect over the next few weeks. And I detail how Senate Republicans are frustrated by Reid’s leadership style.

The immigration “October surprise” is no more.

Over the weekend, President Obama said he will wait to take action on immigration reform, most likely halting deportations for millions of immigrants in the country illegally, until after the November elections. The decision upset immigration advocates, but some Democratic strategists think it helped vulnerable Senate Democrats avoid a last-minute wave of angry Republican voters.

Reid a Sunday show no go.

Even with his job title on the line, Sen. Reid would prefer to shape politics behind the scenes than be on camera. A New York Times Upshot analysis of which lawmakers appear on Sunday morning talk shows illuminates a fact that Reid’s staffers already know. He’s the exception to the rule that House and Senate leaders regularly appear on the shows. The analysis points to a 2010 New York Times Magazine story that says Reid skips the shows “because he is an anemic television presence.”

Reid’s presence in races across the country.

But he’s still on TV. As more and more voters start to tune in, Reid’s name is increasingly being thrown around in TV ads and debates for Senate seats across the country.. The Hutchinson News in Kansas writes Reid’s name came up often in a debate for a Senate seat there. In Michigan, a new analysis finds 78 percent of TV ads are bought by outside groups, some Reid’s-affiliated SuperPAC and others Koch brothers-affiliated organizations. Same for the tight race in Louisiana, The Times-Picayune reports. And in Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican, may be increasingly likely to run for president if Reid keeps the Senate, The Washington Examiner reports.

What the pundits say:

If you want to follow the Senate showdown day-by-day, there are a number of forecasting models that try to predict the political winds. Statistic-driven models at The New York Times, The Washington Post and Real Clear Politics use slightly different methodology but all come to the same conclusion: Republicans have a better-than-50/50 chance to take the Senate. A FiveThirtyEight forecast in early August came to the same conclusion.

Amber Phillips is the Las Vegas Sun’s Washington correspondent. She can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @byamberphillips.