Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Senate Showdown:

3 races to watch in the struggle for control of the Senate

Mary Landrieu

Melinda Deslatte / AP

U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu speaks about her college affordability initiative on Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2014, in Baton Rouge, La. The National Journal says Landrieu’s re-election campaign is one of three key races to watch in the battle for control of the Senate.

Editor's note: This is part of a weekly series, Senate Showdown, in which the Las Vegas Sun politics team shares news, links and insights on Nevada Sen. Harry Reid and the 2014 battle for the U.S. Senate. Readers can also submit questions at [email protected] or via Twitter using the hashtag #AskAmber.

WASHINGTON — In just three weeks, Nevada Sen. Harry Reid will know if he will still run the U.S. Senate.

The campaign to control the Senate is the defining storyline of American politics in the Nov. 4 election, and Reid is one of the main characters.

Forecasts predict Republicans could have a slight majority in the Senate. An unpopular Democratic president and the first national election since the 2013 implementation of Obamacare helped create a tough environment for Senate Democrats up for reelection in red states.

If Republicans gain a net six seats, they would control both chambers of Congress for President Barack Obama's last two years in office. And Reid would lose control of the Senate after ascending to majority leader in 2007.

But even three weeks is a long time in politics — with races too close to call, any slight change in the game can reverberate among voters.

Neither Reid nor Republican Nevada Sen. Dean Heller are up for re-election this year. But the Las Vegas Sun politics team will share links and insights on the Senate showdown leading up to the election.

Democrats

In their effort to keep the Senate in his hands, Harry Reid's advisers are so coordinated and methodical with their outside spending this election cycle that they've made Republican groups look unorganized.

That's a stark contrast to the stereotypes of both parties: Democrats are traditionally seen as an unwieldy diverse coalition of political groups, while Republican donors are disciplined in funding campaigns and going to the polls. But this September, even the Senate Democrats' main campaign arm outraised its Republican counterpart. Matea Gold of The Washington Post breaks down the price Republican donors are paying for their disorganized spending to try to take the Senate.

Your cheat sheet to November's races that matter

As election day nears, there's no shortage of Washington media breaking down the Senate races that matter. Each week, we round up the best for you. The Washington Post's politics experts Chris Cillizza, Aaron Blake and Sean Sullivan have a ranking of the 13 most competitive Senate races that they update weekly. And Politico's James Hohmann asks 11 questions he thinks will determine the control of the Senate.

And then there were three

Even though there are about a dozen races in play for control of the Senate, Washington, D.C., publication National Journal points out it's the three Democratic incumbents we all should be watching.

"Mark Begich in Alaska, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and Louisiana's Mary Landrieu — are still absolutely alive and in the hunt for victory," writes respected nonpartisan analyst Charlie Cook.

Democrats need at least one of those incumbents to keep their seats. One thing Cook points out: Paradoxically, the closest Senate races are usually won by wide margins on voting day. Yet another reason this election cycle is too close to call.

Watching Reid's Republican counterpart debate

And finally, something to look forward to: A high-profile debate in Kentucky, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch MCConnell will debate his Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes. If Republicans take the Senate in November, McConnell could replace Reid as the majority leader.

The race favors McConnell, but as The New York Times points out, debates always give the challenger a chance "to shake things up." It's also a chance for Nevadans, who don't have a say — or a vote — in this year's Senate race to watch the potential majority leader in action.

What the pundits say

If you want to follow the Senate showdown day by day, there are a number of forecasting models that try to predict the political winds.

Statistic-driven models at The New York Times election lab, The Washington Post election lab and FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast use slightly different methodology, but all come to the same conclusion: Republicans have better than a 50/50 chance to take the Senate.

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