In 2016 election, two familiar names have the edge — again

By Clarence Page

Thursday, Nov. 13, 2014 | 2:02 a.m.

Are you ready for Clinton vs. Bush 2.0? My earlier prediction that Jeb will face Hillary in 2016 is looking more certain than ever.

Sure, in theory the conventional wisdom says voters want to see some fresh and new names at the top of their ballots. But in practice, history tells us that voters and campaign donors just love to bring the old names back again and again.

Hence the air of inevitability around former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, as potential competitors such as Vice President Joe Biden or Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts show remarkably little appetite for that fight — especially with her already miles ahead of them in polls.

Republican hopes for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to throw his sombrero in the ring received an unexpected boost recently when his son George P. Bush told ABC’s “This Week” that Daddy Jeb was “more than likely” to join what almost has become the Bush family business: running for president.

“I think it’s more than likely that he’s giving this a serious thought,” said the younger Bush, who was just elected Texas land commissioner, “and moving forward.”

That’s the spirit. I know it is popular to say the public is tired of the Bushes and Clintons. Even former First Lady Barbara Bush was moved to complain in a C-SPAN interview this year, “If we can’t find more than two or three families to run for high office, that’s silly. I refuse to accept that this great country isn’t raising other wonderful people.”

Yet, this great country, despite our ritualistic denunciations of dynasties, has put the Bushes and Clintons up with the Kennedys, Roosevelts and Rockefellers among those families to whom we frequently turn to save ourselves the chore of having to learn about new people.

Like Clinton, Jeb Bush says he’ll make up his mind at the end of the year. He played down his son’s statement in a quickie NBC News interview Oct. 29 with, “He’s got an opinion; he didn’t talk to me” — which is what a lot of us parents could say about our kids.

The GOP field already is getting crowded with ambitious presidential wannabes. Yet, at this point, there’s not a gusher of passion for any of the known hopefuls. A September CBS/New York Times poll found 79 percent of Republican voters couldn’t name a candidate they were enthusiastic about.

Of those who could, Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee, topped the list with only 6 percent, followed by Christie with 4 percent.

Among Tea Party Republicans, 8 percent named Romney, followed by 4 percent each for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Dr. Benjamin Carson and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as their second choice.

Jeb Bush? He wasn’t named by any of the self-identified Republicans or Tea Party folks. But it’s early. Before voters can show enthusiasm, so must Jeb.

His big advantage: Republican primary voters tend to respect seniority. The conservative GOP fiercely resisted Romney, Sen. John McCain in 2008, Sen. Bob Dole in 1996 and the elder George H. W. Bush in 1988, yet the big state party establishment helped put them over the top for the nomination.

The younger George W. Bush was a first-timer but blessed and buoyed up by his familiar name and parentage — another advantage shared by W’s little brother Jeb.

Jeb Bush is a conservative, but not too far right to believe in the power of reasonable compromise to help government do some good for the public without running off its rails. In stature and reputation, he’s the proverbial grown-up in the room who could stand tall amid the circus of more extreme voices on the debate stage and ultimately compete for the votes of minorities and moderate swing voters in the general election, which he has called on the rest of his party to do.

That’s the back-to-the-center formula that usually wins elections, regardless of party. Whether Republicans will go for it by nominating Jeb Bush remains to be seen. But after having been kept out of the White House for two terms in a row, I think a lot of them will be ready to try.

Clarence Page is a columnist for the Chicago Tribune.