Las Vegas Sun

April 18, 2024

Analysis:

Bern’s-Eye View: Mountain West Best Bets Week 11

Fresno State

Associated Press

Fresno State’s Malcolm Washington runs out the tunnel before the game against Wyoming in Fresno, Calif., Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014.

The Rebel Room

Time for UNLV Football to Move On?

Following UNLV's home loss to lowly New Mexico, Las Vegas Sun reporters Ray Brewer, Case Keefer and Taylor Bern discuss whether coach Bobby Hauck should stick around past this season.

It’s not good to be a big favorite in the Mountain West, at least when it comes to covering the spread.

Double-digit favorites in league games are 0-6-1 ATS this season, a record that’s going to change this weekend as two games feature three-possession favorites. Boise State is minus-19 at New Mexico, and Colorado State is minus-18 at home against Hawaii.

Will either of them actually become the first cover the number? I suppose you’ll just have to read on for that:

Note: UNLV picks will appear in the live blog on the day of games.

FRIDAY

Utah State (minus-7½) at Wyoming

5 p.m., ESPN2

• Hardest pick of the week. In the end, I lean toward this being sloppy and low-scoring, so I’ll go with the home team getting the points.

Pick: Wyoming — Loss

SATURDAY

Idaho (plus-20½) at San Diego State

3:30 p.m., Root Sports

• Interesting to see the Aztecs take a page from the SEC playbook and schedule themselves an unofficial bye this week.

Pick: San Diego State — Loss

Boise State (minus-19) at New Mexico

4 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• Even though he’s played plenty in New Mexico’s two-quarterback system, this is the first start for Lobos quarterback Lamar Jordan. I like it to turn out well, at least as far as the spread is concerned. Boise by 17.

Pick: New Mexico — Win

Hawaii (plus-18) at Colorado State

4 p.m., ESPNU

• This is the one. It’s the disputed worst team in the league traveling to the disputed best team in the league, that, oh by the way, would love to catch some national attention. Only way to do that this week is win in big fashion, which I think the Rams will do.

Pick: Colorado State — Win

San Jose State (plus-2) at Fresno State

7:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• Losers of three straight, including last week as an absurd 16-point favorite against Wyoming, Fresno State gets right this week against the Spartans.

Pick: Fresno State — Win

Last week: 4-1

Season: 40-27

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy