Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Senate Showdown:

Republicans have edge, but don’t count Harry Reid out

Harry Reid-Greenspun Media Group

Christopher DeVargas

Nevada Sen. Harry Reid sits down with the Las Vegas Sun Editorial Board on Thursday, Aug. 21, 2014.

Editor's note: This the last of a weekly series, Senate Showdown, in which the Las Vegas Sun politics team shares news, links and insights on Nevada Sen. Harry Reid and the 2014 battle for the U.S. Senate. Readers can submit questions at [email protected] or via Twitter using the hashtag #AskAmber

WASHINGTON — Polls open across the country in less than 24 hours. In about 48 hours, it's possible Nevada Sen. Harry Reid will know if he still runs the Senate.

The campaign to control the Senate is the defining storyline of American politics in Tuesday's midterm election, and Reid is one of the main characters.

With early voting in many states wrapped up showing a stronger-than-expected Republican turnout,forecasts now heavily lean toward Republicans capturing the Senate.

If Republicans gain a net six seats, they would control both chambers of Congress for President Barack Obama's last two years in office. And Reid would lose control of the Senate after ascending to majority leader in 2007.

This election could come down to the wire — the last polls, in Alaska, close at 11 p.m. PST. Neither Reid nor Republican Nevada Sen. Dean Heller are up for re-election this year. But the Las Vegas Sun politics team will share links and insights on the Senate showdown leading up to the election.

How Republicans have an edge

An unpopular Democratic president and the first national election since the 2013 implementation of Obamacare, the 2010 health care reform law Reid helped shepherd through Congress, has helped create a tough environment for Senate Democrats up for re-election in red states.​

This election is the GOP's to lose, writes Politico's James Hohmann.

Republicans look ready to pick up seats in Montana, West Virginia and and South Dakota. They need three more to nab the majority. But Democrats could miraculously gain seats in Kansas and Georgia, which would up Republicans' goal to a net of eight seats. Hohmann asks 10 questions that will help you get smart quick about the play-by-play of what will unfold Tuesday.

Why smart pundits aren't counting Reid out yet

Yes, Americans do favor Republicans controlling the Senate over Reid and Democrats. But just barely, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. Former staffers from Reid's expert political team are trying to push against that "slight breeze" at Republicans' backs.

Their Super PAC, Senate Majority PAC, funded one out of every 20 ads in Senate races this cycle, according to a Center for Public Integrity analysis. That has helped keep races in red states competitive and means we could be in for a late night Tuesday.

Looking ahead

If Republicans capture the Senate, talk is already starting to shift to what they'd do with it. Reuters' David Morgan writes that the party will focus much of its attention on Obamacare. Both Republican-controlled chambers could try to repeal it in January, possibly forcing a veto by President Barack Obama. The party might then try a softer approach to gain moderate Democrats' support to weaken key parts of the law.

If Republicans win big on Tuesday, so will the CIA, writes

Foreign Policy's John Hudson, who says senators favoring government surveillance could be in charge of key intelligence committees.

Finally, any Republican gains in 2014 could be short-lived in 2016, writes Politico's Burgess Everett. That's when the electoral map favors Democrats, because Republicans have many more seats to defend. It's also when Reid's up for re-election, and much of the nation's political focus will be on Nevada. Get ready. We'll have all the coverage right here on lasveagssun.com

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