By the numbers: Stats and trends emerging as UNLV hits quarter pole

By Taylor Bern

Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2014 | 2 a.m.

A quarter of the way into the season, the Rebels (6-2) have a long ways to go to realize their potential. There are, however, many trends starting to emerge, some of them confirming preseason expectations and others offering surprising or inspiring results.

UNLV returns to the Thomas & Mack Center on Wednesday for its first home game since Nov. 29 because of the National Finals Rodeo. Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. with the game streaming on the Mountain West Network and Campus Insiders.

The opponent, Portland (7-2), is a different kind of test than UNLV has had lately. The Pilots are a much more interior-oriented team than the Rebels have been playing, which means UNLV coach Dave Rice can’t afford the type of foul trouble he had in South Dakota.

As the Rebels begin a crucial second quarter of their schedule that includes three ranked opponents, here’s a look at some of the stats and figures, both good and bad, that have emerged thus far:

Note: All efficiency figures from kenpom.com

6 — Number of efficiency categories in which UNLV ranks top 40

Defensively this includes block percentage (19.9, 3rd), 2-point percentage allowed (38.7, 12th), FTA/FGA (0.249, 14th) and effective field-goal percentage allowed (42.8, 32nd). On offense it includes steal percentage (5.8, 3rd) and turnover percentage (17, 39th).

The stellar block percentage, a surprise to no one who’s seen the Rebels play this year, ties directly to their 2-point percentage defense and the overall effective field-goal percentage, which is decent despite struggles to defend the three-point line. While it’s going to be nearly impossible to maintain that free-throw rate once they go on the road more, the Rebels can build on their solid possession control, anchored by senior point guard Cody Doolin and his 4.9 assist-to-turnover ratio.

3 — Number of efficiency categories in which UNLV ranks bottom 22

Just as UNLV doesn’t turn the ball over, it doesn’t create many turnovers on the other side. The Rebels are near the bottom in turnover percentage defense (16, 334th), offensive rebounding percentage (24, 330th) and free-throw percentage (57.8, 343rd).

That last one is guaranteed to cost the Rebels a game or two if it isn’t fixed. The current Division I average at the free-throw line is 68.4, a mark only Rice’s second team met. His first (67.6 percent) and third (65.4) squads also struggled at the line, though even those were several percentage points above this team’s slow start.

48.8 — Christian Wood’s percentage of shots taken at the rim

This is one of the most important stats to monitor all season, because the bigger it gets the better chance UNLV has to win.

In a smaller role last season, Wood took 35.9 percent of his shots at the rim, making 69 percent of those attempts, according to hoop-math.com. That’s a big climb in attempts close to the basket, though it’s still short of where bigs Khem Birch (69.4 percent of shots at the rim), Carlos Lopez-Sosa (64.1) and Roscoe Smith (52.3) were at last season.

Wood is making a solid 67.5 percent of his shots at the rim this season. The Rebels’ leaders in shots at the rim are Goodluck Okonoboh (58.5 percent) and Doolin (54.1).

55.8 — UNLV’s control percentage on Okonoboh/Wood blocks

This is a pet project, and it’s admittedly flawed.

The duo’s 52 combined blocks have resulted in a net gain of 18 points, if you allow that the Rebels’ next possession, even if the block goes out of bounds or to the opponent without points then being allowed, can be credited to Okonoboh/Wood. The reason for the leniency is that there are so many plays they affect without recording a block, so they probably deserve some slack on what exactly counts as creating points.

As for the control percentage, it’s good, but it’s hard to put into context. In the near future hopefully it will be a little more clear how that ranks, but what’s already certain is how great Wood has been at controlling his blocks since the first game in New York City.

Over the last five games, UNLV has gained possession on 76.5 percent of Wood’s 17 blocks, resulting in a net gain of 11 points.

Preseason Over/Under

In addition to picking a score for every single game this season — I had UNLV at 7-1 to this point — I put out four over/under totals for various categories. Let’s see how those are doing:

Minutes for Rashad Vaughn

• Preseason: 29.5, over

• Current pace: 29.9

The number was 29.5 because that was the previous high for a freshman at UNLV under Rice. That guy, USC sophomore Katin Reinhardt, was actually more efficient with his minutes than Vaughn has been so far.

Vaughn is top 35 in the country in both possession and shot percentages when he’s on the court, but thanks largely to a 28.9 3-point shooting percentage his Offensive Rating is just 92.3, according to kenpom.com. With lower usage rates, Reinhardt finished at 98.5 his freshman season.

Blocks for Okonoboh/Wood

• Preseason: 124, over

• Current pace: 208

Perhaps a little credit is due for picking what is clearly going to be the right side, but this was an awful line. Khem Birch registered 124 blocks last season, hence the number, but it would have been much better to use his career tally of 192.

At least then it might be close.

Assists for Doolin

• Preseason: 279, under

• Current pace: 176

Same thing here. Right side of a terrible number.

Last year’s squad didn’t have even one player register 100 total assists and Doolin was a slam dunk to remedy that. However, UNLV isn’t close to good enough at shooting for Doolin to remain purely a distributor and the offense in general isn’t generating the assist numbers Rice wanted.

Rice’s favorite stat is assists-to-made baskets. His first two teams did that very well — 65.4 and 64.4 percent of made shots were assisted, respectively — before dropping to 52.4 percent last year. So far this season it’s closer to last year than the previous squads at 56.2 percent.

Made 3s for Dantley Walker

• Preseason: 15.5, under

• Current pace: 16

The fan favorite from Panaca is right on pace. However, all four of his made 3s came in the same game, that beatdown against St. Katherine.

Walker’s only appeared in three other games this season and they were all spot minutes at the end. The good news? There are future opponents (Southern Utah, San Jose State twice) that offer Walker another chance to get some run to let it fly.

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.