Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Week 14 NFL picks and game of the week for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Ravens vs. Dolphins as close to a playoff eliminator as possible with three weeks to go

Ravens Forsett

ASSOCIATED PRESS

In this Nov. 30, 2014, file photo, Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett, left, tries to break free of San Diego Chargers defensive end Corey Liuget while rushing the ball in the first half of an NFL football game in Baltimore. The Miami Dolphins displayed a serious weakness for all the football-viewing nation to see in prime time against the Jets.

Updated Saturday, Dec. 6, 2014 | 10:28 a.m.

One of the best teams in the NFL will find themselves all but eliminated from playoff contention by Sunday afternoon.

Week 14: Ravens at Dolphins

Which side would you take in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Majority Poll Opinion this season: 8-6)
Ravens plus-3 — 59.6%
Dolphins minus-3 — 40.4%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Some fans might have a hard time placing the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins, which square off against each other in a 10 a.m. kickoff, in the league’s top group. But not the unbiased power ratings in Las Vegas, where the two AFC hopefuls unanimously place in the NFL’s top 10.

The numbers at Don Best Advantage have Miami at No. 6 and Baltimore at No. 7. The two teams are so evenly matched that this week’s Dolphins minus-3 point spread in Miami implies the game would post as a pick’em on a neutral field.

It’s the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest as two of three sports writers used one of six weekly selections — listed in full at the bottom of the page — to pick a side in the matchup.

Unlike last week when almost every game felt important, the week 14 slate is more underwhelming. Baltimore at Miami is far and away the most significant contest with a guaranteed 50 percent swing in playoff chances up for grabs, according to the metrics at Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com.

In a just world, both the Ravens and Dolphins would reach the postseason based on how they’ve played to this juncture of the season.

They’ve both fallen on the wrong side of variance to an extent as the Ravens’ plus-86 and the Dolphins’ plus-69 point differentials net a better expected record than their identical 7-5 tallies. Miami is also 7-5 against the spread, with Baltimore at 6-5-1.

The two teams are a combined 2-5 straight-up, both with a single win, in games decided by less than a touchdown. Gamblers know all too well their failings in close games.

Action pushed Baltimore from minus-5.5 to minus-6.5 in a home game against San Diego last week. The Ravens were in position to hand sports books a decent loss when they went up 30-20 with six minutes to go. But they went unnecessarily conservative from there, mangling the lead and giving up a game-winning touchdown drive that concluded in the final seconds to lose 34-33.

Two of Miami’s last three losses and noncovers went down a parallel path. The Dolphins allowed the Lions to score a touchdown with 30 seconds to go in a week 10 game, losing 20-16 as 3-point favorites. That was four weeks removed from getting bet down from plus-3 to plus-1.5 against Green Bay and leading the entire second half before giving up a touchdown with three seconds left to lose 27-24.

The Ravens and Dolphins are fortunate the defeats weren’t more damning. Not yet anyway.

They’re both still in the middle of the pack at 40-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. One team could add an undesirable third digit by Sunday night.

Early money says it’s just as likely to be favored Miami, as the bulk of the bets are on Baltimore. Roughly half the sports books in town have moved the spread down to 2.5.

The swing isn’t all that uncommon for a game in Miami, with SunLife Stadium burdened with the stigma of offering a miniscule home-field advantage. The reputation may not hold up as strongly as once believed, though.

Since coach Joe Philbin took over three years ago, the Dolphins are 13-8 against the spread at home. The Ravens don’t specialize on the road either by any means at 9-12-2 against the spread in regular-season games during the same span.

The tighter the focus on Baltimore and Miami, the more similar they appear. Stirred by unforeseen forces, they have two of only nine offenses in the NFL well rounded enough to rank as above average in both rushing and passing in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Baltimore’s Justin Forsett is leading all running backs in the league with 5.6 yards per carry after Jacksonville released him earlier this year. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is riding a five-game streak of completing at least 70 percent of his passes — joining Brett Favre and Peyton Manning are the only other players to pull that off in the last decade — after Philbin nearly benched him earlier this year.

Joe Flacco is .1-percentage point away from a career-high passer rating for the Ravens a season after posting a record low. Lamar Miller is gaining on Forsett for the Dolphins at sixth among running backs with 4.9 yards per carry.

Defensively, Miami and Baltimore are a combination of indomitability in one key area and susceptibility in the other.

Behind Pro Bowl-caliber years from cornerback Brent Grimes and safety Reshad Jones, the Dolphins have played pass defense as well as anyone in the NFL but they’ve given up back-to-back 200-yard rushing games.

Baltimore has held opponents to the NFL’s sixth-best 3.6 yards per rushing attempt — though nose tackle Haloti Ngata, who serves a four-game suspension for a failed drug test starting Sunday, is the biggest reason — but yielded an eighth-worst 7.3 yards per pass attempt with a injured-depleted secondary.

The return of injured starting cornerback Asa Jackson could start shoring up the pass defense against the Dolphins. The Ravens better hope so, because there’s no more time left for a delay.

Check below for all of this week’s picks, listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

Record: 45-33 (6-0 last week)

Ravens plus-3 at Dolphins

Steelers plus-3 at Bengals

Jets plus-6 at Vikings

Bills plus-10 at Broncos

Chiefs at Cardinals over 40.5

Falcons plus-12.5 at Packers

 

Taylor Bern

Record: 40-36-2 (2-4 last week)

Steelers plus-3 at Bengals

Texans minus-5.5 at Jaguars

Rams minus-3 at Redskins

Chiefs minus-1 at Cardinals

Eagles minus-1 vs. Seahawks

Patriots minus-3.5 at Chargers

 

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

Record: 39-39 (2-4 last week)

Ravens plus-3 at Dolphins

Texans minus-5.5 at Jaguars

Panthers at Saints over 49.5

Redskins plus-3 vs. Rams

Cardinals plus-1 vs. Chiefs

Eagles minus-1 vs. Seahawks

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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