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October 22, 2014

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LETTER FROM WASHINGTON:

Rep. Heck’s House seat among those poised for a fight in ‘14

Congressman Joe Heck (R-NV) responds to a question during a town hall meeting with constituents at Pacific Pines Senior Apartments in Henderson Tuesday, Feb.19, 2013.

Congressman Joe Heck (R-NV) responds to a question during a town hall meeting with constituents at Pacific Pines Senior Apartments in Henderson Tuesday, Feb.19, 2013.

For the past 12 years, Nevada voters have always had a bigger electoral fish to fry than their representatives in the House.

The Silver State has weathered the political near-death of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the vicious battle between Shelley Berkley and Sen. Dean Heller, and a few turns as a swing state in presidential elections.

But in 2014, Nevada’s highest elections are its House races, and among them, experts are predicting a knock-down, drag-out fight in only the 3rd Congressional District.

Nevada has changed dramatically since the last time the ballot was arranged in this way. In 2002, CD3 was new, born of the post-2000 census redistricting. Nevada was President George W. Bush territory — a Republican stronghold that elected a full slate of Republicans to higher office (including Rep. Jon Porter to the newly formed CD3). And in 2002, Nevada didn’t have the sort of national clout that would later come with Reid’s ascent to majority leader.

Now, the national spotlight promises to be turned squarely on Nevada’s southernmost congressional district because the stakes aren’t just whether Rep. Joe Heck or his likely Democratic challenger, Erin Bilbray-Kohn, will prevail.

In 2014, the emerging central question in Washington is whether control of the House will flip, and with fewer races in play than past years, every seat counts.

“We know we are going to be facing potentially difficult races,” National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Greg Walden said in an interview last month. “And it is a much smaller playing field than it was.”

In 2014, independent experts such as the Rothenberg Political Report estimate that as few as 45 House seats will be in play. That’s about half the roster of seats that were considered up for grabs at a similar point in the 2012 electoral cycle.

However, the real magic number for both parties is 17: If Democrats can flip control of that many House seats, they would take the majority.

With fewer districts comes more national attention to each that is in play, especially in an off-presidential year. That means money. Surrogates. And the biggest turnout machine the party can muster.

In Nevada, turnout machines lately favor Democrats. After a sorry showing in 2002, Reid spent the next several years rebuilding the party, and those efforts paid off in 2008, 2010 and 2012 victories in top-of-the-ticket races. In that time, Nevada has gone from being considered a swing state to a leans-Democratic state.

But CD3 has always been difficult to tie to any statewide pattern or trend.

“Reid has attempted to win CD3 for a number of years. It’s one where he has consistently not been able to pull the right levers,” said Eric Herzik, a UNR political science professor.

In electoral cycles past, however, CD3 has never been Democrats’ top priority.

For their part, national Republicans say Heck will withstand any onslaught of campaigning against him. Heck is the Nevada delegation’s top fundraiser thus far and, with two and a half years of experience, the Nevada delegation’s senior House member.

In fact, Republicans are so confident in Heck’s race that they see a campaign against 4th Congressional District Rep. Steven Horsford, a Democrat, as a potential battleground, as well.

But with no candidates ready to challenge — Walden would only say “we’re talking” to unidentified prospects — observers rank CD4 as safely Democratic territory.

“CD3 is going to be the focus,” Herzik said. “The Republicans don’t have a natural candidate.”

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  1. I've never been very politically active. I vote every election, trying to vote for the best person regardless of their party affiliation.

    However, I'll gladly volunteer to support Joe Heck with money and "ground pounding" if he's "targeted" in the next election. He's done a good job IMHO.

  2. NO mention of his son's recent TWEETS found on the front pages and cover news stories in the media. Wonder how that will all play out?

    Commenters are stating he is doing a good job, but not exactly HOW. Just saying here.....

    Blessings and Peace,
    Star

  3. Re staralioflundnv: Heck's son's recent "tweets" were vitriolic racist slurs, and reflect parenting. The son's vitriol is based on parental upbringing; the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Heck is an A-hat, but thanks to redistricting, I don't have to worry about him being my "representative". Scum like Joe Heck need to be removed from office. One can only hope.

  4. I'm with you, ressince73. Because of re-districting, I am away from him. Glad to be Heckless.

    I advise the good people of CD3 to get rid of Joe "Pay Per View" Heck and his idea that Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme. The guy is a closet Tea Partier. He does this hat and cane forte like he's a moderate, but he's not. Every single vote he does in the House of Representatives is in lockstep with the radical and extreme over reaching Tea Party.

    I just hope CD3 runs a very good Democratic Party candidate against him. If they do, Heck is toast. Don't matter how much money he has built up. The last election cycle clearly showed that money don't buy elections. And if that is the only thing Heck is hoping for, it's not going to work against a good Democratic Party candidate.

  5. It is very disturbing to read Rep. Joe Heck's son, Joey Heck, comments on twitter in 2012 during the campaign of the 2013 presidential election. Joey Heck's comments on twitter were outright racist, used willingly and knowingly with intent to hurt and harm.

    One can take Rep. Joe Heck apology in stating the language his son used is not used in his house. At face value, one can respect and accept the apology. Even though Joey Heck was 16 years at that time in 2012, the apology should have came from Joey Heck, not Joe Heck. After all, the comments were from Joey Heck and directed at presidential candidates and other politicians who where of the same agenda as his father Joe Heck.

    What is questionable about Rep. Joe Heck's apology...why did didn't he stop his son and speak out sooner??? In addition, this raises serious questions what has Joe Heck been teaching in his house, in regards to sensitivity and adversity of others, those different from him and his family???

    The next campaign should examine Rep. Joe Heck's character and what he stands for!!! Just who is Joe Heck and his family???