Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Letter from Washington:

Down-ticket candidates fickle about cozying up to presidential contenders

When the chips are down, politicians in tight elections can sometimes count on a little boost from the top of the ticket.

Sometimes they can’t.

Figuring out whether the presidential candidates will actually help their down-ticket counterparts has become one of the most variable games of the 2012 election season in Nevada — especially in the closely contested Senate race.

“The down-ticket effect has been very much in flux this year,” said Mark Peplowski, professor of political science at the College of Southern Nevada. “And I’ve seen a lot more flux in Nevada than you see in other places.”

The race between Republican Sen. Dean Heller and his Democratic rival Rep. Shelley Berkley could determine which party controls Congress.

But neither Heller nor Berkley has been consistent about how closely they want to be associated with the candidates atop their party tickets.

Heller seemed comfortable with fellow Republican Mitt Romney — until last week, that is, when Romney was caught on hidden camera calling 47 percent of Americans freeloaders and claiming he didn’t represent them.

“I don’t agree with the comments that he made. I just don’t have that view of the world,” Heller said Wednesday.

Berkley, meanwhile, has gone in the opposite direction. She didn’t start out her campaign seeking close ties to President Barack Obama. But as her ethics issues have mounted, she’s moved closer toward the president as a campaign partner.

“Of any of the races, she stands the best chance at benefiting from a shirttail effect,” said Fred Lokken, a political scientist at Truckee Meadows Community College. “If the Obama surge continues ... it’s got to have a positive effect on Berkley. The question is, (is it) enough to make a difference?”

Berkley and Heller are vulnerable to the changing sentiments in the presidential race simply by virtue of the office they’re seeking.

“The down-ticket effect is not going to affect the state assemblyman or the county commissioner,” Peplowski said. “But the cluster of federal races ... they will fizzle or zoom with the presidential candidates — particularly when the independents are trying to figure out which way to make a go.”

The outcome of the Nevada Senate race depends, in part, on only a handful of swing voters. But while those voters may be independently minded, they tend to vote with their hearts, not their heads, Peplowski said.

“Nevada voters vote emotionally. They don’t want to do their research,” he said. “That makes the candidates much more vulnerable to these messages that try to tie them to the candidates.”

Odds are, however, that the Senate race will be decided in Washoe County — where voters have demonstrated more willingness to vote split tickets.

“Voters in this portion of the state tend to be driven less by any kind of coattail effect. We are a mixed bag, which would suggest we can separate the races,” Lokken said.

Indeed, in 2008, Obama carried Washoe County — but so did Heller, though by a smaller margin. Heller is also currently polling far ahead of Berkley in Washoe County.

That would seem to leave little room for the down-ticket effect to influence the outcome of the election. Unless, experts say, the next seven weeks leave Republicans unhappy enough with Romney to stay at home, giving Obama’s popularity a wider berth to boost Berkley.

“If (Republicans) stay home, it would be a game-changer on almost every one of the elections for the Democrats,” Lokken said.

“All that matters is turnout: If Obama’s machine continues to do what it’s doing and Republicans continue to do nothing ... that will help Berkley,” Peplowski said. “She can win. But she’s going to have to do it with Obama’s numbers.”

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