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August 27, 2014

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sports betting:

Week 13 NFL picks against the spread for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Taylor Bern takes the lead after going 11-0-1 the past two weeks

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Andrew Luck

Sun's NFL betting game of Week 13

Which side would you take in Colts at Lions Sunday?
Colts +4.5 — 50.5%
Lions -4.5 — 49.5%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

In every season since the NFL realigned its divisions a decade ago, at least one team has advanced to the playoffs after finishing in last place the year before.

The Indianapolis Colts are poised to prolong the streak this year. Behind the leadership of the draft’s No. 1 overall pick — Andrew Luck at quarterback — and a Bounty-soft schedule, the Colts stand at 7-4 a season after finishing 2-14 in 2011.

They’re a game ahead of every other team in the AFC for the top wild-card spot, with Football Outsiders’ playoff odds giving them a 67 percent chance to make the postseason.

The Detroit Lions (4-7) find themselves in the opposite position. They have less than a 1 percent shot at the playoffs and sit in last place in the NFC North, two games behind the third-place Minnesota Vikings, a season after snapping a 12-year playoff drought with a wild-card berth.

No matter, Las Vegas oddsmakers’ power ratings continue to rank Detroit ahead of Indianapolis. The Lions give the Colts 4.5 points this weekend when the two teams meet at Ford Field.

Detroit’s offense actually has produced at a higher clip than last year, but its defense has consistently created bigger messes than an elementary school food fight. Football Outsiders’ DVOA efficiency ratings put Detroit’s defense at 25th in the league.

The Lions could give the slightly scuffling Luck, who’s completed only 54 percent of his passes the past two weeks to drop to 29th in passer rating, an opportunity to regain the form that landed him on the cover of this week’s Sports Illustrated.

But two of the three prognosticators in the Sun’s handicapping contest, which features six picks from each contestant per week, like Detroit to break out of a three-game skid against Indianapolis’ last-ranked defense.

One of them is Taylor Bern, who’s gone an unbelievable 11-0-1 against the spread in the past two weeks to seize control of the contest.

Look below to find all of this week’s picks. Games are listed in order of kickoff time.

 

Taylor Bern

Record: 35-34-3 (5-0-1 last week)

Bears -3.5 vs. Seahawks

Lions -4.5 vs. Colts

Chiefs +3 vs. Panthers

Texans -6 at Titans

Browns -1 at Raiders

Bengals -2 at Chargers

 

Ray Brewer

Record: 35-36-1 (2-4 last week)

Dolphins +7.5 vs. Patriots

Colts +4.5 at Lions

Jets -4.5 vs. Cardinals

Bengals -2 at Chargers

Buccaneers vs. Broncos over 50.5

Giants -2.5 at Redskins

 

Case Keefer

Record: 35-36-1 (1-5 last week)

Lions -4.5 vs. Colts

Seahawks +3.5 at Bears

Rams +7 vs. 49ers

Patriots -7.5 at Dolphins

Browns vs. Raiders over 41

Giants vs. Redskins under 51

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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