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Friday, Nov. 2, 2012 | 2 a.m.
Another view?
View more of the Las Vegas Sun's opinion section:
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Here is something to consider for Election Day. There may be a fundamental and compelling change that has not been discussed in the political theater. The elephant in the room is the dinosaur in the room.
Political predictions rely heavily on time-tested “polling” that costs millions of dollars and is conducted by highly respected, mature research organizations; therein lies the fatal flaw. While impressive in stature, historical polling will be forever changed Tuesday. Not only is social media uncontrollable and unpredictable, it is without the foundation needed for scientific predictions. Additionally, this often-anonymous world of code names and fictitious identities fuels the pool of what media refer to as the “undecideds.” When one lacks accountability and need not offer a real identity, undecideds become important, advancing egos and self worth. The combination of these factors may prove polling as the dinosaur it has been for some time. Perhaps we just didn’t notice the sea change even when it was right in front of us.
The best way to bury polls is to ignore them, and never participate in any. That goes for "surveys" as well.
If enough voters do this, polls & surveys will die, when the results prove them to be unreliable.
We need a Do Not Call list that includes political calls. Something to work on!
Wouldn't it be worth it to not have these intrusions in our lives?
Wouldn't it be worth it go not be manipulated by the polls?
Wouldn't it be worth it to maintain personal empowerment?
The manipulators won't think so.
Some businesses will say it helps them give consumer's what they want. Forget it. Those surveys are more about getting the product in your mind.
The best consumer poll is purchasing power. Do not settle for something you don't want. The lack of sales will speak loudly. Same for services.
". Not only is social media uncontrollable and unpredictable, it is without the foundation needed for scientific predictions. Additionally, this often-anonymous world of code names and fictitious identities fuels the pool of what media refer to as the "undecideds." When one lacks accountability and need not offer a real identity, undecideds become important, advancing egos and self worth."
Spooky
This is how Obama communicates now. Every morning you wake up to the latest bad faith ressentiment character assassination and vilification of an honest family man Mitt Romney.
This is how Democrats campaign now
The polls get better as the only poll that counts on Nov 6 gets closer. The polls tell us it's a very close race. Do we need polls to tell us that? Not when President Obama is campaigning in Iowa for 6 electoral votes and New Hampshire with 4. It's very obvious.
CarmineD
Polling is something you have a option of participating in, like voting, however privacy and democracy is what has gone the way of the dinosaur. The average American Joe has a job, bank card, credit card, cell phone, Internet, cable tv, two grocery membership cards, two email accounts an automobile and big brother monitoring you 24/7. They know everything about you, even who your voting for.
Does the letter writer believe that online polls are being used by legitimate pollsters?
Try here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...
Comment removed by moderator. Same (or similar) comment posted on multiple stories.
@Longtimevegan - Does that include the Black Panthers?
@ecm,
"Responsible people with legal authority are monitoring for illegal activity at the polls"
What part of this do you not understand my friend?
We can only hope that the endless speculation resulting from endless polling will disappear, but unless the accuracy of modern polling techniques proves unreliable, the guessing game is not likely to end. Even when polling is ineffective as a predictor, it is still a useful, if subjective, marketing tool. Humans are lemmings, and positive poll numbers can be hard to resist. If any publicity is good, any positive publicity is better.
I can't recall which of the primary candidates the fickle GOP was enamored with at the time, but prior to the Republican primary, I attended a seminar that featured a discussion between Robert Gibbs and Karl Rove. At 8:00am, as the crowd poured coffee down its collective throat, the discussion began with Rove, who opened with 6 minutes of tedious statistics and poll numbers to corroborate his prediction that a Republican would prevail in the 2012 presidential race. While we stirred our coffee, he went on and on with a dizzying display of numbers, rattled right off the top of his shapeless head. I, like many attendees, was actually a little hung over. Yet even through our fog, we got the message: All his numbers were strongly supported by citable polls, polls and more polls, so Democrats might as well throw in the towel and concede defeat. Because all the polls said so.
The moderator finally regained control and turned the floor over to Gibbs, who, of course, cited contradictory, but equally reliable-sounding polls supporting the strength of the Democrats. Not to be outshone and compelled to cast doubt on Gibbs' favorable data, Rove interjected (I paraphrase), "Robert, polls are not necessarily reliable."
The audience howled, and we were jolted awake by the clarifying coffee and the delicious irony of a fool caught in his ruse.
Polls are definitely a joke. So is the president winning re-election by 6 to 8 points. Polls sample such a small size and most I have seen sample more democrats that republicans. I have yet to see a poll that really panned out. It's like odds on a football game, sometimes it just doesn't go the way you expect. Lets wait until Nov 7th to decide.
other than Rassmussan and Fox, polls are pretty acurate, it was only when Romney was behind that the talk radio poll conspiracy crap started.
Also the british oddsmakers are even more going with an Obama victory. a $100 bet on Romney gets you over $300, you have to put up $300 to $400 to win a $100 on an Obama win. Obama takes Ohio and Nevada, Romney NC, probably FL and maybe VA, see for yourself. Also note Obama is a more popular bet, so they sweeten the odds for Romney even more.
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/poli...
President Obama will win re-election on November 6th. A majority of Americans believe that he's the best man for the job....
They can see that Mitt Romney wil say or do anything in order to get a vote.
We've had very few presidential candidates who have gone as far as "mittens" has in order to gain the White House.
I like to call Romney "king flip-flop" which I believe says more about his character, or lack of, than any other name.
The American people are often slow to see what is going on, but once they understand the total situation, they almost, with out exception, make the right choice.....
That's why they will return Obama to the White House for four more years...
"They [Americans] can see that Mitt Romney wil say or do anything in order to get a vote." - El_Lobo
As opposed to President Obama who will say anything to the public but then do what he really wants afterwards. We have had ample evidence of this from his first campaign and later an open mic incident. Think about his statements to the public about NAFTA or the Patriot Act and then what he really did.
No, Obama doesn't flip-flop per se, he just lies and then does what he wants.
Thomas......
We don't need a poll to tell us who will win this
election.
The biggest flip-flopper, who ever ran for
president, will lose.
The man who still hides his income taxes from the
public will lose.
The man who hides his money in the Caymen Islands,
will lose.
The man who bullied a gay kid in school and cut
his hair off, will lose.
The man who tied his poor dog to the roof of his
car will lose.
The man who said he will kill Obamacare will lose.
The man who said he will de-fund Planned Parent-
hood will lose.
The man who said we should overturn ROE vrs. Wade
will lose.
The man who said we should privatize FEMA will
lose.
The man who said he will privatize Medicare with
vouchers, will lose.
The man who said GM AND CHRYSLER should go
bankrupt, will lose.
The man who said we should not chase Bin Laden to
the ends of the earth, will lose.
YES, we don't need polls for this.
FOUR MORE YEARS FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA!!!
Romney has stated clearly that he wants more NAFTA style trade agreements which will result in more manufacturing south of the US border. People like Romney and his Bain colleagues will make unearned fortunes by pocketing money that should go to working people.
This apparently flies right past Jim and his republican cohorts.
The devastation that comes from moving manufacturing out of American communities, and out from under the protections for workers in American law is a morality play that does not concern the whigs or republicans and this story never reaches us. Certainly this is true of our own US/Mexico border.
Check out this website: http://www.documentaryphotographs.com/ro... , about one particular woman who made TVs and computer monitors in a factory owned by LG/Zenith in Reynosa. Made in America? Not so much anymore.
Why does Romney and the Bains of the world put factories in places like this? Because they are pirates who live a life of luxury HERE in AMERICA and take the money that used to be paid in tariffs and they offshore the profits in Swiss and Cayman Accounts. This knifes Americans in the back and the difference between adequate wages and really low wages, and between adequate benefits and no benefits ruins the world economy so one or two guys get car elevators.
Romney is a pirate.
Obama for president, because the alternative is awful.
I got a live call the day after I cast my early vote and the woman said she had just a few questions and would only take about 2 minutes. Her first question was who I voted for for President. That is an invasion of privacy and should not be allowed. My answer to the question was, I can tell you how big my johnson is but my vote is confidential. She hung up on me.
The only time polls seem to count is when your candidate is ahead in one.