Long-term interests suggest no change in strategy

Nancy E. Brune

Thursday, March 22, 2012 | 2 a.m.

The reports that a U.S. soldier left his base in Afghanistan’s Kandahar province and went on a rampage, killing 16 civilians, follow closely on the heels of other U.S. missteps in recent months, including the accidental Quran burning and images of U.S. military personnel urinating on dead Taliban insurgents. The accidental burning of the Quran triggered violent protests in Afghanistan, leaving 40 dead and hundreds injured.

Initially, reactions to the shootings last week appeared more somber. However, the increasingly emotionally tinged presidential announcements coming from Afghanistan suggest that the political fallout may be worse than originally anticipated. The action of a single U.S. soldier acting alone may unravel strained U.S.-Afghan relations beyond the point of no return.

President Hamid Karzai is justified in expressing outrage and demanding justice for the affected families and full cooperation from the U.S. in uncovering the truth about the incident.

And Karzai called for a dramatic change in policy and has insisted that U.S. troops be withdrawn from villages and confined to military bases a year earlier than previously agreed. The Taliban also declared that it would suspend peace talks that the U.S. has been steadfastly attempting to broker.

A critical feature of U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan has been the placement of U.S. troops, many of whom have language and cultural knowledge skills, into villages where they work alongside and train Afghan security forces. These operations have enabled Afghan security forces to maintain control of some areas in southern Afghanistan. Prior to this tragic incident, the agreed upon course of action was to accelerate the deployment of U.S. troops to the villages, where they could train Afghan forces and prepare them to assume control over the country’s security operations by the end of 2014, when the majority of U.S. combat troops are expected to leave.

Karzai’s short-sighted decision to pull troops from remote combat outposts and confine them to bases one year ahead of schedule could jeopardize the ability of Afghan forces to capably assume military and defense operations and to contain Taliban insurgents once foreign troops leave.

Moreover, despite the shared interest in removing U.S. troops, U.S. involvement in Afghanistan will not end in 2014. As we know from Iraq, post-conflict Afghanistan will need continued assistance to build infrastructure, strengthen institutions and support economic development. The ability to attract civilian groups to support these non-military nation building efforts will depend on Afghanistan’s ability to guarantee the safety and protection of those working alongside their Afghan counterparts.

Certainly, the loss of 16 Afghans, nine of whom were children, is a tragedy. But, quite possibly, the greater tragedy is that one person’s alleged actions are quickly unraveling the diplomatic, political and military headway that has been secured in no fewer than 10 years at the cost of billions of dollars and the lives of almost 2,000 U.S. service men and women.

Nancy E. Brune, an instructor at CSN, is a fellow with the Truman National Security Project and a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy.