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Chris Morris / special to the Sun
By Karoun Demirjian (contact) 
Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012 | 2 a.m.
Related stories
- Caucus Day: How GOP candidates have set expectations for today’s results (2-4-2012)
- On eve of caucus, Mitt Romney makes case to voters across Nevada (2-3-2012)
- Ron Paul ventures into Pahrump, where he’s a rock star (2-4-2012)
- Sharron Angle finds that her endorsement packs little punch (2-4-2012)
- Gingrich tells Las Vegas crowd he will ‘win the nomination’ (2-3-2012)
Sun's complete coverage
In politics, managing expectations can be an important part of competing.
The sports world gets this. Instead of predicting an easy victory, a savvy coach flatters the opposition and talks down his own chances, hoping to lull the other team into a false sense of security.
So how are the presidential candidates attempting to manage expectations for today’s Nevada Republican caucuses?
To read the strategy, you need to know where things stand. Four states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida — have voted. Iowa was essentially a tie between Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, and Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Romney has won two more states and established himself as the front-runner.
Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, has won one state, South Carolina, making him the likeliest challenger to Romney’s lead. And Ron Paul has made several respectable showings.
So what we’ve got in Nevada is one candidate trying to protect a safe lead, one in position to challenge it and two hoping for come-from-behind second-place finishes that could breathe life into their campaigns.
Here’s a look at how each of the candidates are managing the expectations for today’s caucus:
MITT ROMNEY
As front-runner, Romney has the most to lose and, as a result, the least to say about how he’ll do.
The Romney campaign has been trotting the candidate out for 15 minutes here, seven minutes there — just enough to let people catch a glimpse of the front-runner but not enough time to allow him to get off script.
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, his wife Ann and businessman Donald Trump leave a news conference after Trump endorsed Romney's presidential bid at the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada February 2, 2012.
Romney appears positioned to make Nevada his biggest win two election cycles in a row: He staged double-digit victories in New Hampshire and Florida, but polls here have him as much as doubling the showing of his next-closest competitor. Given that sort of cushion, it may seem a little disingenuous when Romney tells Nevada Republican voters, as he did on Thursday: “I need every vote I can get.”
But you can’t gloat in these situations — and nobody wants to jinx a lead, especially in a caucus state.
“We take nothing for granted. Yes, it’s nice to have a poll that tells you things you want to hear, but until Saturday has come and gone, fully executed and the caucus is secured, we have a lot of work to do,” said Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Romney’s state campaign co-chairman. “These polls perhaps even cause some complacency. ... If there’s a celebration, we’ll have it — we expect it — but we’ll do that Saturday evening.”
NEWT GINGRICH
In a way, Newt Gingrich already staged one victory here: He took over second place in Nevada polls from Ron Paul, who placed second in the state’s 2008 caucuses.
But like Paul, Gingrich isn’t focused on winning Nevada. He’s focused on winning delegates in Nevada’s caucuses — that, his people say, is a winning strategy.
Presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich spoke today in front of supporters at Stoney's Rockin' Country, Fri Feb. 3, 2012.
How’s that for setting expectations?
“Our job is to win the nomination. In Nevada, our job is to turn out the Tea Party in droves, to show that conservatives are not behind Mitt Romney,” Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said Thursday, as polls showed Gingrich 20 to 25 points behind Romney.
Gingrich has the support of some powerful Nevada conservatives — chief among them Sheldon Adelson — but has not been pounding the pavement as hard as some of his competitors, spending more time pressing donors for cash than Nevada Republicans for votes.
While he certainly isn’t saying he can win, he also hasn’t been shy in telling voters he needs all the help he can get.
“I need your help today; I need your help getting people turned out on Saturday,” he told people at a campaign event Thursday. “All across the country we’re seeing a popular movement spring up. ... We need your help.”
RON PAUL
Four years ago, Ron Paul supporters established their candidate as a player in Nevada presidential politics: Not only did he come in second to Romney, but by the time the state convention rolled around, his supporters had staged a coup, snagging all of the Silver State delegates.
This time around, binding caucus results won’t let that happen. But it also appears that Paul’s base is slipping.
Republican presidential candidate U.S. Representative Ron Paul (R-TX) speaks during a rally at the Green Valley Ranch Resort in Henderson Tuesday, January 31, 2012.
Before the first polls, pundits predicted Paul might put Gingrich’s national candidacy to shame by relegating him to third place here. But instead, it’s Paul who’s dropping to third, sometimes even fourth, in polls. There have even been empty chairs at some of his public events.
But Paul, like his core group of faithful supporters, is undeterred.
“Right now, my goal is to maximize the delegates,” Paul said Wednesday, echoing Gingrich’s line. “For us, Nevada’s very, very important because of the setup. ... It rewards people who have energy, who have commitment, who have beliefs and can compete. That’s what a caucus state does. We’ve been known to be able to organize and energize, so we expect we’re going to do quite well.”
RICK SANTORUM
Santorum was the first to arrive in Nevada. He showed up Tuesday night, leaving behind Florida, where he was in last place, to try to drum up crowds here.
Republican presidential candidate former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum serves up a slice of pizza with owner Ben Sitto at Manhattan Pizza, a pizza shop by his Nevada headquarters, in Las Vegas on Jan. 31, 2012.
He staged a caucus surprise in Iowa. But he couldn’t pull more than 100 people to an event Tuesday — or more than 10 percent in the polls — and has since spent more time outside Nevada than he has in it, even after receiving Tea Party darling Sharron Angle’s endorsement. While Nevada is caucusing, he’ll be in Colorado.
If his absence isn’t making it clear enough, Santorum’s trying to keep expectations low.
“We’re doing our best in a very constrained environment. ... I think it would be a stretch to say that we could win here, but I think it’s a place hopefully we can improve our position,” Santorum said Tuesday night. “You never know. We’ve overperformed before, and we’re hopeful we’ll do well out here.”
Oooh, very nicely played Mr. Romney. Gingrich gets pointless endorsement from political naif Herman Cain, and you match it with an equally pointless endorsement from political naif Donald Trump. Like your style, and in Trump, you finally get someone with whom you can actually compete over joyfully firings and making $10,000 bets. But in interest of being bipartisan in our chuckles, check out this funny YouTube video about Barack Obama's Secret Service and his Chicago home: http://tinyurl.com/6sevqsj
Manhattan Pizza is off the list for normal thinking Nevadans.
So what will turnout be like today? Can they even meet 2008 numbers? If Iowa and Florida were signs of what's to come, then the G-O-TEA is really having a hard time building up enthusiasm for any of these clowns.
I don't know what the turnout will be, atdleft, but one thing will surely happen.
After it's all over with, the candidates, as well as their campaign staffs, along with the Nevada Tea/Republican Party, not to mention ultra-conservative right wing media, will all claim emphatically there was a record turnout, the enthusiasm was gargantuan, loudly proclaiming a record amount of people who want to put an end to President Obama and his communist Islamo teleprompter reading socialist Kenyan colonialist agenda, that their numbers are growing, President Obama must be defeated, he's not one of us, he will never be one of us, how dare he sit in the White House when it should belong to us, blah blah blah blah woof woof woof woof ad infinitum.
Don't matter if the numbers are good or bad, the rhetoric will trump (oops, sorry for the stupid pun) the reality.
That's how the Tea/Republican Party rolls. The propaganda MUST and WILL outdistance the truth.
It appears that Roseanne Barr plans to run for office via the GREEN Party. This will surely throw these staunch, rigid, political opportunists into shear chaos! Now that's entertainment to call them out of their easy chair election campaign modes of rhetoric. Yippee! Bring out the hootin' and hollerin' politicans, for twist and shout time. Let the showdown begin!
Blessings and Peace,
Star
Hey neocons, check out the excellent article on The American Conservative website titled, "Ron Paul: Reactionary of Visionary" written by Patrick J Buchanan.
The ship has struck the iceberg people, and the Establishment members,on both sides of the aisle, are sitting up on the promenade deck cooly reminding us that the ship cannot sink. I, for one, am heading for the lifeboats!
Rueters:
ZURICH (AP) - The United States has indicted St.Gallen-based Wegelin, the oldest Swiss private bank, on charges it enabled Americans to evade taxes on at least $1.2 billion in offshore bank accounts.
______
Uh oh. Looks like Willard Romney and many other anti-American vultures of the elite 1% better think about get lawyered up in a hurry.
Colin
Great post. Made me laugh - more than that youtube video which wasn't really funny at all. Don't knwo who did the video but the chick sounded like Snooki from Jersey Shore! No Chicago accents at all!
PS I believe the Obamas have either family members or friends staying in their house. So it is never unoccupied. Hey, EVERY Chicagoan knows not to leave their house unattended while they are away regardless if there is police presence or Secret Service!!!
To All Patriot Americans: those of you who have not caucused for any candidate yet, please consider the follwoing facts before voting:
1. No matter what we do about 50% of our country either vote republican or democrat;
2. No matter what the media or others try to say to the contrary, BHO and DNC will use a class warfare to win BHO's reelection bid; Any opposition to BHO's policies are being characterized as "racist".
3. The left leaning mass media promotes contorversial and flawed candidates as electable for their own ratings and agenda to have BHO re-elcted;
4. Romney was not able to defend his Romney care when confronted by Santorum during the last CNN debate; The democrats would be happy to have Romney or newt as a republican nominee. They will call Romney rich and "heartless" millionaire who does not understand and care about the poor. Newt as well admitted his erroneous belief about individual mandate;
5. Newt is widely belived to be erratic, arrogant and narcissit by those who closley know him. he had ethical violation and was forced to leave his post as the Speaker of the House; he was on both sides of important conservative issues like Romney;
6. Ron Paul has not successfully answered about his racist news letters for which he was the editor and from which he benefited financially; besides this, he wants harmful drugs legalized at a state level. He has also the most dangerous foreign policy. He does not even have a legislative victory for all the time he spent in congress.
7. When you caucus for a candidate, you are supporting the totality of what a candidate stands for.
There are a lot of things that could be added to what I stated above. knowing all the facts above, why should a patriot american vote or caucus for a candidate that could be easily defeated by a billion war chest in the general election?
Although so many people do not know him, there is one candidate which will be the democrts nightmare, that is, Santorum. he has a proven leadership skills, debating skills (won the last two CNN debates), well trained in business (MBA), well trained in law and politics and have a legislative victories on conservative issues. he is the winner who will definitely win against Obama in the general election. I hope you will caucus for Santorum instead of the others who have a lot of personal, professional and political baggages that could easily ruin their candidacy.
Mr. Romney, I just hope you understand that people liking you more then Newt Gingrich does NOT mean the same thing as people liking you!
These Caucuses sound like a HOOT!
Go to KTNV site here and read Karen freels's account of her little Nevader Nightmare...
"All of that waiting, and volunteering with NO DIRECTION, was a waste of time. NONE OF OUR VOTES COUNTED- as they werent on the blue forms he was now there to hand out. What a MESS!!!!!!!!!!"
http://www.facebook.com/KTNVLasVegas
You Republicans sure know how to throw a party!!!
"Romney 2012; I AM the 1%!"
As the incumbent candidate in 2006 righteous Rick Santorum lost his Penn senate seat by 18% which is a world record loss for an incumbent not under indictment and charged with a felony crime.
Santorum won for four consequitive terms in a 70% democratic district except in 2006. Who has such a great record among the candidates?