UFC on FUEL TV 2 breakdown, betting odds and picks

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, April 12, 2012 | 3 p.m.

Every promising competitor on the UFC roster reaches a point where he’s given a high-profile bout.

It’s a fight where a win can vault him into a division’s elite ranks, while a loss can send him sliding back into the middle of the pack. Such is the situation 25-year old light heavyweight Alexander Gustafsson finds himself in Saturday in the main event of UFC on FUEL TV 2 against Thiago Silva.

“Everyone has to prove something,” Silva said on UFC.com at the event’s open workouts. “Until then, we can’t say nothing. So let’s do it. Let’s see what’s going to happen.”

Gustafsson (13-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) has blitzed his way to this opportunity by finishing every contest — three by submission, two by knockout — in his UFC career. The promotion is content to give him every chance to succeed going forward.

The fight with Silva (14-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC) takes place in Stockholm, Sweden, less than two hours from Gustafsson’s hometown. Silva is an example of someone who has never quite broken through to title contention in the 205-pound weight class, losing to Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans in the two high-profile fights he’s received in the UFC.

Silva returns from a one-year suspension for using fake urine in a post-fight drug test last year to face Gustafsson.

“I think he’s got some good power,” Gustafsson said of Silva. “It’s a good test for me.”

Oddsmakers favor Gustafsson at a -225 (risking $2.25 to win $1) clip, with Silva coming back at +175 (risking $1 to win $1.75).

Pick: Gustafsson by TKO

Check below for a breakdown of the other 11 fights on the card along with betting odds and a pick. The main card of UFC on FUEL TV 2 airs on television at noon Saturday with preliminary bouts streaming on Facebook.

 

Middleweight bout: Brian Stann (11-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) vs. Alessio Sakara (15-8 MMA, 6-5 UFC)

Line: Stann -400, Sakara +300

Matchup: A major upset would occur if this fight hit the ground. Both men are almost entirely standup fighters. Stann, an American war hero, probably has a power advantage. Sakara, an ex-professional boxer from Italy, is probably more technical. These are traditionally the types of bouts Stann thrives in, when he doesn’t have to worry about an opponent shooting in for a takedown.

Pick: Stann by knockout

 

Welterweight bout: Paulo Thiago (14-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (20-4-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Line: Thiago -175, Bahadurzada +145

Matchup: Hardcore fans have referred to Bahadurzada as one of the best 170-pound fighters in the world outside of the UFC for years. Bahadurzada, who is on a six-fight winning streak, now gets to prove it against an octagon veteran. Thiago’s days as a fringe top 10 welterweight have vanished, however, as he lost two straight in 2010 and looked uninspired in a win against heavy underdog David Mitchell at last year’s UFC 134.

Pick: Bahadurzada by decision

 

Featherweight bout: Dennis Siver (19-8 MMA, 8-5 UFC) vs. Diego Nunes (17-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC)

Line: Siver +130, Nunes -160

Matchup: “Dennis The Menace” spent much of last year near the top of the UFC’s 155-pound division. But a lopsided loss to Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone at UFC 137 forced Siver to reconsider his weight class and drop to the more natural 145-pound division. He won’t get an easy welcome with Nunes, whose only loss in the last three years came in a close decision to Kenny Florian. Nunes should have a speed advantage, but the Nova Unaio-trained fighter must look out for Siver’s inventive arsenal of kicks.

Pick: Nunes by decision

 

Welterweight bout: DaMarques Johnson (16-9 MMA, 4-3 UFC) vs. John Maguire (17-3 MMA, 1-0 UFC)

Line: Johnson +140, Maguire -170

Matchup: Maguire, a veteran on the British fight circuit, has a slick submission game. Johnson, a veteran of the ninth season of “The Ultimate Fighter”, is a finisher with only three career fights that have gone the distance. Johnson has eight wins by submission, but also five losses. No one has ever submitted Maguire.

Pick: Maguire by submission

 

Bantamweight bout: Brad Pickett (20-6 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs. Damacio Page (12-6 MMA, 0-1 UFC)

Line: Pickett -225, Page +175

Matchup: It’s difficult to hold too much against Pickett and Page for losses in their UFC debuts. The defeats came to Renan Barao and Brian Bowles, respectively, who are two of the best 135-pound fighters in the world. Pickett and Page look to work their way back to the top of the division starting Saturday. Page has two straight losses by guillotine choke, a submission Pickett has used successfully four times in his career.

Pick: Page by decision

 

Welterweight bout: Papy Abedi (8-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs. James Head (7-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC)

Line: Abedi -250, Head +200

Matchup: Behind Gustafsson, Abedi is the second-most promising Swedish fighter in the UFC. A loss to former No. 1 welterweight contender Thiago Alves last November did little to kill the buzz surrounding Abedi. Head’s position is more up for debate. Although the 28-year old may have the tools to excel in the octagon, he was routed by middle-of-the-pack fighter James Head in his debut at UFC 131.

Pick: Abedi by knockout

 

Light heavyweight bout: Cyrille Diabate (17-8-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC) vs. Tom DeBlass (7-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Line: Diabate +165, DeBlass -205

Matchup: The 38-year old Diabate spent years as a professional kickboxer. Between MMA and kickboxing combined, he’s knocked out 36 opponents. DeBlass should have a grappling advantage, as he trains under Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Ricardo Almeida in New Jersey.

Pick: DeBlass by submission

 

Middleweight bout: Francis Carmont (17-7 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. Magnus Cedenblad (10-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Line: Carmont -250, Cedenblad +190

Matchup: Plenty of eyes will fixate on Carmont’s corner, where Georges St. Pierre will serve during the fight. The two are teammates at Tristar Gym in Montreal and St. Pierre has always spoken highly of Carmont as a training partner. Cedenblad is one of four Swedish fighters on the undercard. His nickname translates to “The Pooch” in English.

Pick: Carmont by TKO

 

Lightweight bout: Reza Madadi (11-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC) vs. Yoislandy Izquierdo (6-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Line: Madadi -210, Izquierdo +170

Matchup: Madadi signed with the UFC earlier this year, but had to back out of a fight scheduled for January with an injury. The setback turned out as a blessing because now he gets to fight in front of his hometown. Izquierdo’s journey to Stockholm took a few more miles. The 28-year old is originally from Cuba, where he served in the military, but now trains out of Miami.

Pick: Madadi by decision

 

Welterweight bout: Simeon Thoresen (16-2-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) vs. Besam Yousef (6-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Line: Thoresen -280, Yousef +220

Matchup: Both fighters are making their UFC debut, but Thoresen has two more years of professional experience than Yousef. Thoresen, who hails from Norway, has 14 career wins by submission. Yousef, who fights out of Gothenburg, Sweden, has only made it to the judges’ scorecards once.

Pick: Thoresen by TKO

 

Featherweight bout: Jason Young (8-5 MMA, 0-2 UFC) vs. Eric Wisely (19-7 MMA, 0-1 UFC)

Line: Young -180, Wisely +150

Matchup: Both of Young’s UFC fights have delivered 15 minutes worth of entertainment, but two losses mean he’s competing for his job in Sweden. Wisely’s only octagon bout was also memorable, but not for him. He fell victim to the first calf-slicer submission in UFC history when Charles Oliveira forced him to tap out at UFC on FOX 2.

Pick: Young by decision

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.