ASSOCIATED PRESS
Josh Beckett
Thursday, April 5, 2012 | 2:05 a.m.
With the return of Major League Baseball season, the Sun will run a two-part series looking at the odds posted at local sports books.
The odds on each team to win their division, league and the World Series are provided, along with a look back at last year. The 2011 results listed are a team’s record, their profitability if a bettor placed a $100 wager on them every game and how they fared on over/under totals posted at sports books.
The odds come from the LVH Superbook. The past information comes from the sports betting database at Covers.com.
Below is a breakdown of the American League with LVH Superbook Assistant Director Chris Bennett, who oversees baseball betting. Click here to read yesterday's report on the National League.
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Baltimore Orioles
2011 results: 69-93 (-$476, 87-67-8 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 69
Odds to win AL East: 80-to-1
Odds to win American League: 100-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 200-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: "They just can't seem to figure it out. For example, they brought in Mark Reynolds a few years ago. I think a guy like that is the absolute worst to have on your team. He gets a ton of strikeouts and plays bad defense. People look at his home run numbers and think he's a decent player, but having a guy like that playing every day hurts your team. And then they go out and get another guy just like that this year with Chris Davis from the Rangers."
Quick overview: Cal Ripken, Jr. was still a part of the Orioles infield the last time they were a profitable bet over the course of a season in Las Vegas. It's been at least a decade since Baltimore made bettors money. The Orioles have come in last place in their division for four straight years. Oddsmakers see no end in sight. Their roster is littered with former prospects who didn't quite pan out. Center fielder Adam Jones leads the list. Jones has become a solid contributor — he batted .280 last year with 25 home runs and 83 RBI — but not the superstar some thought he was destined to become.
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Boston Red Sox
2011 results: 90-72 (-$1,276, 80-72-10 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 89.5
Odds to win AL East: +210
Odds to win American League: +500
Odds to win World Series: 10-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “Going into the season last year, people thought this was the greatest team ever. They’ve got the same core of guys going into this year and their World Series odds are twice as high. I think people forget so quickly and only remember how they fell apart at the end of last year.”
Quick overview: The Red Sox were one of only three teams with a winning record to lose bettors money last season. And they lost them a lot. Their infamous 6-18 finish to the season was particularly painful to bettors. Oddsmakers like Boston to bounce back and, once again, battle with Tampa Bay for second place in the division and a potential wild card berth. The Red Sox lineup is stacked as usual, but pitching is a concern. The bullpen is unproven, while the starting pitching is full of question marks. Jon Lester had a solid but not outstanding year in 2011 while Clay Buchholz is returning from a back injury and Josh Beckett is dealing with a thumb ailment.
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New York Yankees
2011 results: 97-65 (+$896, 71-78-13 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 93.5
Odds to win AL East: -125
Odds to win National League: +350
Odds to win World Series: 7-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “People are so negative about the Red Sox now that the perception is the Yankees are the best team. I’m not so sure. They might be overrated. I think there’s potential for this team to fall off a bit. Several of the guys in their lineup are old, and what they got out of Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon last year was extremely fortunate for them.”
Quick overview: As the team with the largest fanbase in professional sports, the Yankees always draw plenty of support in Las Vegas. Their backers have seen mixed results in recent years. Although the Yankees won the World Series in 2009, they've been unprofitable for the season in three of the last five years. Look for New York, as usual, to be favored in more games than any other team aside from perhaps Philadelphia. On the surface, the Yankees should also post plenty of overs playing in their hitter-friendly ballpark with a weak pitching staff. Behind C.C. Sabathia, New York is counting on quality seasons from Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova.
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Tampa Bay Rays
2011 results: 91-71 (+$870, 65-88-9 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 87
Odds to win AL East: +400
Odds to win American League: +800
Odds to win World Series: 16-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “They ought to be right up there because their starting pitchers are so good. I’m not sure about their bullpen. It’s iffy. This lineup doesn’t compare to the Yankees and Red Sox, but with this starting pitching, I think they could win the division.”
Quick overview: Tampa Bay will never get the attention to match divisional rivals New York or Boston. It's no matter to the Rays, who are content to keep winning games and cashing tickets. Over the past four years, Tampa Bay has established itself as the best team to bet on in the AL East. They've made bettors money in three of four seasons, capturing the divisional crown once in the process and twice winning the wild card. The Superbook offers individual props for plenty of players on Tampa Bay's roster. Third baseman Evan Longoria's over/under home run total is at 30.5. Pitching ace David Price's over/under win total is at 14.5. Leadoff man Desmond Jennings over/under hit total is at 154.5.
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Toronto Blue Jays
2011 results: 81-81 (+$252, 83-73-6 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 81.5
Odds to win AL East: 12-to-1
Odds to win American League: 30-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 60-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “I like the Blue Jays a lot. Brett Lawrie is ready to be a star player. I like Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus, who was a great prospect with the Cardinals and could still reach his potential. Their lineup is awesome. They are the team that has moved the most on win totals from where we opened them. There’s a lot of positive feelings about this team.”
Quick overview: Oddsmakers don't foresee slugging outfielder Jose Bautista winning his third straight home run title. Bautista, who hit 54 bombs in 2010 and 43 last season, is at +800 to lead the league in home runs at the Superbook, behind the Marlins' Mike Stanton. Bautista has helped the Blue Jays become one of the best over teams in Las Vegas since he arrived in 2009. Toronto has posted 247 overs, compared with 214 unders in the last three years. Former Las Vegas 51 J.P. Arencibia and first baseman Adam Lind bring even more power to Toronto's lineup. The Blue Jays looked to have improved their pitching with the addition of closer Sergio Santos. Constantly-improving Ricky Romero is at the top of the rotation.
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Chicago White Sox
2011 results: 79-83 (-$1,036, 72-80-10 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 74.5
Odds to win AL Central: 15-to-1
Odds to win American League: 40-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 80-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “There’s always support on the Chicago teams. Even though it doesn’t look like they are going to be any good, we’ve gotten a lot of money on the White Sox. People are taking a shot with them. They have the sixth-most tickets to win the World Series.”
Quick overview: Las Vegas is ready to officially announce the end of Chicago's status as perennial contenders in the AL Central division. The White Sox had a disappointing 79-83 season last year, and all signs point to a more drastic downturn in 2012. First baseman Paul Konerko, who hit for a .300 average with 30 home runs in 2011, is coming off of a career year, but the rest of the lineup is borderline pathetic. Clean-up hitter Adam Dunn had a .159 batting average last year. Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham had similarly poor years. Chicago has a trio of talented starting pitchers — John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Jake Peavy — looking to bounce back from rough stretches.
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Cleveland Indians
2011 results: 80-82 (+$239, 84-70-8 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 78.5
Odds to win AL Central: +700
Odds to win American League: 30-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 60-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “I wouldn't say I'm down on them, but I don't see anything that jumps out to me with potential to make the playoffs. I don't like what I've seen from Ubaldo Jimenez and the way he carries himself. His stats have really dropped off from his short period of dominance. He might be the type of guy who isn't good to have on your team. From that standpoint, I'm wary of expecting the Indians to do anything."
Quick overview: Respected opinions around town are split when it comes to Cleveland. A decent lineup that clicked when the Indians got off to a hot start in 2011 is complemented by a new-look pitching staff featuring Derek Lowe and Ubaldo Jimenez. Some view Lowe and Jimenez as quality veteran additions to the staff, while others are underwhelmed. Either way, Justin Masterson should be strong at the top. He recorded a 3.21 ERA last season with 158 strikeouts and 12 wins. The Indians' win total is one of the few that hasn't shifted at all at the Superbook, further illustrating dissenting opinions.
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Detroit Tigers
2011 results: 95-67 (+$1,888, 84-66-12 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 93
Odds to win AL Central: -450
Odds to win American League: +300
Odds to win World Series: 6-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “For our World Series count, the Tigers are tied with the Angels for most tickets. The public really likes this team.”
Quick overview: Detroit obliterated the win total sports books posted for it in 2011. The Tigers ran away with the division crown by winning 95 games, which was 10 more than oddsmakers pegged them for. Bettors are counting on the Tigers doing it again this year. Inspired by the dominance of pitcher Justin Verlander and signing of first baseman Prince Fielder, Detroit has the distinction of being the most publicly-backed team in Las Vegas this preseason. Oddsmakers see the Tigers having the easiest road to the postseason, posting them as a staggering -450 favorite to win the AL Central. But that number has as much to do with the weakness of the rest of the division as it does with Detroit's strength.
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Kansas City Royals
2011 results: 71-91 (-$542, 77-75-10 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 80
Odds to win AL Central: +700
Odds to win American League: 25-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 50-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “I like the Royals the most of the also-rans in that division, but they’ve had some bad things happen now. (Joakim) Soria being out for the year really hurts their bullpen, and one of their starters, Felipe Paulino, is hurt now, too. That has tempered my enthusiasm for this team. But I do think they have a chance to get over .500 with a good core of young players.”
Quick overview: Sharp bettors have lined up at local sports books to bet the Royals to go over their win total. It's jumped an entire 1.5 games at some spots. The reason for optimism is the lineup, which features several young promising bats. Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and Mike Moustakas all have the ability to lead Kansas City to its best year in nearly a decade. The Royals haven't posted a winning record or finished in the top half of the AL Central since 2003. The Superbook even posted a home run over/under for Hosmer. His mark is set at 21.5.
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Minnesota Twins
2011 results: 63-99 (-$2,442, 77-75-10 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 73
Odds to win AL Central: 25-to-1
Odds to win American League: 25-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 100-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: "They are too dependent on a couple guys. They are desperate for Joe Mauer to have a big year and Justin Morneau has to stay in the lineup. Scott Baker has to stay healthy as their best starting pitcher. If you take away any of those three guys, this team is so weak. And they did nothing in the offseason to improve their team."
Quick overview: It's hard to believe the Twins were favored to win the AL Central a year ago in Las Vegas. Minnesota imploded in 2011 and now finds itself on the other side. The Twins are favored to come in last in their division. They missed last year's over/under win total of 85.5 by a staggering 22.5 games. A weak pitching staff contributed to the problems. But it wasn't all the franchise's fault. Some things were out of its control, including the time missed by cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau with injuries. Minnesota signed outfielder Josh Willingham to place in the middle of the order along with a returning Mauer and Morneau this year.
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Oakland Athletics
2011 results: 74-88 (-$1,540, 78-69-15 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 71.5
Odds to win AL West: 25-to-1
Odds to win American League: 50-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 100-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “I don’t like the A's because they got rid of their two best pitchers in (Trevor) Cahill and Gio Gonzalez. Their lineup, on paper, looks just terrible. I don’t know how they are going to score runs.”
Quick overview: Bettors might have a difficult time identifying Oakland with "Moneyball". All the A's have done over the past six years is separate gamblers from their cash. Oakland has posted only one profitable year in the sports books since 2006. The A's have been one of the best under teams in baseball during that time, though. Last season was the first time in six years that they went over the total more than under. Sports books will likely struggle to keep balanced action on Oakland's games this season. With Bartolo Colon as their No. 2 starter and catcher Kurt Suzuki anchoring the lineup, there's not much to like about the A's.
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Los Angeles Angels
2011 results: 86-76 (+$198, 71-78-13 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 92.5
Odds to win AL West: -125
Odds to win American League: +300
Odds to win World Series: 6-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “I consider the Angels and the Rangers equal. The public likes the Angels a little bit more. I expect the one who doesn’t win the division to get one of the two wild card spots. It looks like it should be a great race for the division the entire year.”
Quick overview:It's almost counter-intuitive to look back on the Angels last couple years because of how different they will look in 2012. The lineup, rotation and bullpen have all undergone transformations. In addition to the much-publicized signing of Albert Pujols, Kendry Morales returns from injury with Chris Iannetta and Jorge Cantu arriving. C.J. Wilson joins the starting pitching ranks, while LaTroy Hawkins bolsters the bullpen. Bettors have loved the busy offseason and responded by wagering loads of money on the Angels. Los Angeles can welcome itself to the ranks of the must publicly-backed teams in Las Vegas.
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Seattle Mariners
2011 results: 67-95 (-$2,151, 70-81-11 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 72
Odds to win AL West: 25-to-1
Odds to win American League: 50-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 100-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “The Mariners have a little bit of potential. I think their offense could become halfway decent or at least a little bit better than it’s been the last two years. Getting (Jesus) Montero from the Yankees and having young guys in (Dustin) Ackley and (Justin) Smoak could help.”
Quick overview: The Mariners had the lowest win total of any American League team last year with 69.5. They managed to fall short even of that dreadful mark by one-and-a-half games. Vegas sports books forecast a slight improvement this year, as two AL teams have worse over/under marks than the Mariners. It's hard to tell why, as Seattle will continue to generate little offense. An optimist would point toward second baseman Dustin Ackley and first baseman Justin Smoak breaking out, but those aren't ideal offensive players to lean on. The starting rotation also falls off significantly beyond ace Felix Hernandez.
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Texas Rangers
2011 results: 96-66 (+$1,275, 85-68-9 over/under)
Over/under season win total: 92
Odds to win AL West: +105
Odds to win American League: 4-to-1
Odds to win World Series: 8-to-1
Bennett’s thoughts: “The Rangers are great, but the average person that is coming in to bet World Series futures doesn’t know someone like Yu Darvish. He could wind up being dominant this year, but it’s not someone people have seen watching on TV.”
Quick overview: The Rangers have made the World Series two years in a row and Las Vegas sports books favor them to have another chance by making the playoffs in 2012. Although bettors have largely sided with the Angels over the Rangers, the odds have stayed close. Bookmakers have nothing but positive things to say about the Rangers, who have posted two straight 90-plus win seasons. A power-heavy lineup with Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz and Michael Young stays intact while some turnover exists in the pitching stable. The Rangers will need Yu Darvish and/or Neftali Feliz to step in and fill the void left by C.J. Wilson, who departed to the division rival Angels.
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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