NFL betting guide: AFC East and AFC West

A gambler places a bet at the new Lucky’s sports book in the Riviera Thursday, September 1, 2011. The remodeled sports book also features an outdoor, walk-up betting window.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2011 | 9 p.m.

Note: LasVegasSun.com will run betting previews for all 32 NFL teams over the next four days. They’ll be broken up by division with a prominent Las Vegas oddsmaker offering his input. Check out part one here and part two here.

The best current rivalry in the NFL is one that received no attention as few as two years ago.

As soon as Rex Ryan arrived as the coach of the New York Jets in 2009, disdain between his team and the New England Patriots grew. The Jets have re-vitalized the rivalry and found success in the process.

Although the Jets haven’t beaten out the Patriots in the AFC East in either of the two years, they hold a 3-2 overall record against their foes since Ryan took over. The teams are two of the five most likely squads to win the Super Bowl this season, according to Las Vegas oddsmakers.

“I would say overall, position-by-position — not including Tom Brady, because he’s far ahead of the Jets kid — personnel between New England and the Jets is really close,” Lucky’s sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro said. “Barring any unforeseen thing, it’s got to be one of those two teams in that division.”

Many of the NFL’s less prominent, but still passionate, rivalries now reside in the AFC West. Most Kansas City Chiefs fans, for instance, can’t decide if they hate the Denver Broncos or Oakland Raiders more.

The Broncos and the Raiders share their own long-running feud. The final team in the division, the San Diego Chargers, is the only one that has odds shorter than 50-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.

“The other three teams, you can shake them all up in a bag,” Vaccaro said. “I have no idea. That’s what makes this division intriguing.”

Click through below for a full betting rundown on the eight teams in the AFC East and AFC West.

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Buffalo Bills

2010 Against-the-spread record: 8-8 (4-12 straight)

Odds to win the Super Bowl: 200-to-1

Over/under win total: 5.5 (over -135, under +115)

Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in 11 of 16 games with one pick'em

Vaccaro’s thoughts: “I believe the Bills will be good against the number this year. We’re going to be jacking everything up two points or so because we know they haven’t done anything good in the last few years and their quarterback situation is in shambles. But that doesn’t mean they won’t go out there and put up a fight. They will.”

Overview: Once Buffalo coach Chan Gailey got his zany offense rolling last year, his team became a solid play in Las Vegas. The Bills went on a midseason tear where they covered in five of six games. One of many problems for Buffalo is its inability to compete in a stacked division. That has translated in Vegas. Buffalo is only 6-12 against-the-spread versus AFC East opponents over the last three seasons.
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Miami Dolphins

2010 Against-the-spread record: 8-8 (7-9 straight)

Odds to win the Super Bowl: 60-to-1

Over/under win total: 7.5 (over Even, under -120)

Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in 10 of 16 games with one pick'em

Vaccaro’s thoughts: “The Dolphins just have a few too many problems. It’s not that they can’t upset anybody on any given day — like the old NFL commercial — but it’s too hard to sustain that to where you can get to nine or 10 wins.”

Overview: Ask respected bettors about Miami and expect a list of wide-ranging responses. Some feel quarterback Chad Henne is under-rated, and with coach Tony Sparano desperate for his job, the Dolphins will make a playoff push. Others point out the obvious deficiency at running back where Miami will rely on Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas. The defense projects as stout either way. Linebacker Cameron Wake and defensive end Randy Starks are two of the best at their position in the league.
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New England Patriots

2010 Against-the-spread record: 11-5-1 (14-3 straight)

Odds to win the Super Bowl: 9-to-2

Over/under win total: 11.5 (over Even, under -120)

Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Favored in 14 of 16 games

Vaccaro’s thoughts: “People see the Patriots as such an obvious pick that we lower the number more than what it should be…For example, the books put up the Patriots as four-point favorites against the Dolphins in the first week. Now the number is seven. We know why, the Patriots are a better team and the Dolphins have had trouble, but it’s absolutely no bargain laying seven in the first game of the NFL on the road.”

Overview: Vaccaro and colleagues have regarded New England's lines as inflated for years now. But the Patriots usually find a way to cover them. New England has posted profitable marks against-the-spread in six of the last seven years. The other year they went 8-8 versus the number. Perhaps quarterback Tom Brady and his cronies have lost some playoff magic, though. They are 0-6 against-the-spread in their last six postseason affairs.
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New York Jets

2010 Against-the-spread record: 11-8 (13-6 straight)

Odds to win the Super Bowl: 12-to-1

Over/under win total: 10 (over Even, under -120)

Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Favored in 12 of 16 games

Vaccaro’s thoughts: "If I were to make a bet, I would take the Jets ahead of the Patriots. I feel they're a doggone-good football team. The Jets are going to be there obviously. It comes down to if Sanchez can remain consistent at quarterback."

Overview: Bettors shouldn't let the Jets reputation as one of the best defensive teams in the league fool them into wagering on the under. Over the last two seasons, 23 of New York's 36 games have gone over the total. The Jets defense slipped a little last year, but could come back strong in 2011. They don't have a Darrelle Revis holdout saga to deal with and have nowhere to go but up on third-downs after being dreadful a year ago. The main question offensively is whether Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Kerley can slide into the roles of Braylon Edwards and Brad Smith, who left in free agency, to help with quarterback Mark Sanchez's continued development.
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Denver Broncos

2010 Against-the-spread record: 5-10-1 (4-12 straight)

Odds to win the Super Bowl: 75-to-1

Over/under win total: 6 (over -120, under Even)

Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in 14 of 16 games

Vaccaro’s thoughts: “I don’t know if you say signs of life, but maybe. Their win total got bet down at the beginning of the summer and now it’s been bet up a little bit. After the Chargers, it’s like playing dodge ball — who’s going to get hit first and knocked off?”

Overview: No one sympathized with Denver coach Josh McDaniels when the organization fired him after a 3-9 start to last season — especially not people who supported him with their money in Las Vegas. McDaniels took the Broncos through a disastrous 1-6 run against-the-spread before he met his demise. The Broncos also fielded one of the worst defenses in the league under McDaniels' watch. Their resistance could improve in 2011 when the return of sack master Elvis Dumervil, who missed all of last season with injury.
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Kansas City Chiefs

2010 Against-the-spread record: 9-8 (10-7 straight)

Odds to win the Super Bowl: 50-to-1

Over/under win total: N/A (off the board because of injury to Matt Cassel)

Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in 10 of 16 games

Vaccaro’s thoughts: “They are an above-average team and have the old Arrowhead mystique there, which can be good for a couple wins. If I had to, I would say Kansas City doesn’t perform as good as it did last year. I don’t think they hit their win total. As a matter of fact, I think they’ll lose some games where they are substantial favorites. And the first one might come Sunday against the Buffalo Bills.”

Overview: The Chiefs breakout season a year ago wasn't as much of a surprise to sharp bettors as it was to the rest of the country. Plenty of tickets were cashed on Kansas City going over its preseason win total of 5.5 games. Smart money was on the Chiefs because they had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and the arrival of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis working for them. This year, they have neither. The Chiefs opponents are tougher as a whole and Weis took an assistant coaching job at the University of Florida.
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Oakland Raiders

2010 Against-the-spread record: 9-7 (8-8 straight)

Odds to win the Super Bowl: 75-to-1

Over/under win total: 6.5 (over +110, under -130)

Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in 11 of 16 games

Vaccaro’s thoughts: “They’ve made some horrendous moves in the offseason. They let way too many people go. You saw their win total go down and their first game on Monday Night go down just by watching exhibition football.”

Overview: Unless they show some promise in the first few weeks, hardly anyone is going to bet on the Raiders all season. Vaccaro opened Oakland as a pick'em in its game at Denver to start the year on Monday Night Football. Money has flooded in on the Broncos ever since and they are now a three-point favorite. Such things happen when a team loses its best offensive and defensive player. The Raiders traded cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha to the Eagles, while tight end Zach Miller departed for Seattle. They'll look for production from the likes of second-year receiver Jacoby Ford and second-year linebacker Rolando McClain to prove bettors wrong.
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San Diego Chargers

2010 Against-the-spread record: 8-7-1 (9-7 straight)

Odds to win the Super Bowl: 10-to-1

Over/under win total: 10.5 (over -130, under +110)

Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Favored in 13 of 16 games with one pick'em

Vaccaro’s thoughts: “They’ve been run up to like a 3-to-1 favorite to win their division for obvious reasons — It’s one of the worst divisions in football. Other than if Rivers gets hurt, I don’t see any other team winning the division.”

Overview: Every year, the Chargers rake in future money to win the AFC and the Super Bowl. And every year, they end up disappointing their supporters. It has a lot to do with San Diego's notorious slow starts. The Chargers have gone 3-5 against-the-spread in their first eight games for three consecutive seasons. The high-powered offense led by quarterback Phillip Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates has helped bettors in one category — For five straight years, the majority of San Diego's games have gone over the total.